So far, air cargo has recovered from the impact of the epidemic. According to IATA’s monthly market report, the number of air freightable goods in January was only 19.5 percent lower than in 2019. (Data are not referenced due to the epidemic in 2020). Connector, Terminal Blocks and Bike Spoke Reflector should be noted.
Enquiry Address: https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-freight-monthly-analysis—january-2021/
Air cargo markets have reportedly recovered in a V form since reaching their bottom in April 2020, while airlines’ passenger operations remain depressed.
The data released by London’s CLIVE data service, which normally matches IATA, did not show positive growth until February. Although February was three days less than January, the load rate was still very strong, with the average installed capacity of aircraft approaching 70 percent and monthly growth of 7 percent.
The cost of all modes of transport and supply chain problems strongly suggest that the air freight market will become hot and heavy in the next part of the year, without previous spring and summer stagnation.
Many enterprises are moving goods from sea mode to air because of the surge of demand, port congestion, long waiting time and shortage of containers.
01 Many products “from sea to air”
Let’s hear what these importers say.
1 The transport manager of the bicycle importerCanyon bicycle USA said:
Most of our company’s inventory is shipped by sea, but the most popular bicycles are by air, because of the epidemic, our demand for products has soared. In addition, air freight is faster, we need to meet the needs of customers.
We used to get the “priority shipment” right at the shipping port by extra payment, but now it’s completely unnecessary, because even at the port of Los Angeles, we still ca n’ t get the goods.
Before the outbreak, each sea shipment took 20-30 days, but now it takes 60-70 days. This is too much consumption for us, and the impact on our performance is huge, so completely can not wait, can only choose air transportation.
2 Secco Logistics Chief Growth Officer Brian Bourke said:
If you want to send a bathtub from Shanghai to New York by sea, the cost is about $1000, which will take 35-45 days, which does not include the advance booking waiting time for sea transportation.
And according to the weight of the product, the freight by air is about $2000-3000. But air freight only takes 3-4 days. So double the cost can save 4-7 weeks, which is valuable for some suppliers and importers.
3SEKO vice president for global air cargo Shawn Richard said:
Large sports equipment, such as table tennis tables and treadmills, is usually transported by sea because of cost problems. But now, because of the global epidemic, many people are required to stay at home, leading to a surge in demand for these products, which are currently being transported by air.
4CH Robinson vice president Matt Castle said:
I never thought I’d see the vacuum cleaner airlifted, but now it happened. We will see more goods that need to be transported faster being forced to be transported by air rather than being “waiting “.
Air demand is still hot
There is no sign of weakening demand for air transport.
Global manufacturing and export orders have shown strong growth for months, according to the PMI. The ratio of retail inventory to sales is still low, and many shippers turn to air transportation to handle inventory of important or fast-selling products.
The National Retail Federation predicts, U.S. retail sales will grow 6.5% to 8.2%, The average growth in the previous five years was 4.5. The International Monetary Fund expects, U.S. retail sales will grow 5.1% in 2021, Economists say, Gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 4.5 to 5 per cent. According to the eMarketer and U.S. Department of Commerce, The epidemic turned e-commerce into a “runaway train “. With retail growing 28% globally, in the United States increased by 32.4 percent.
In addition, many factories remain open this year because the Chinese government encourages employees to celebrate the New Year on the spot. As a result, air shipments fell by only 30 per cent, compared to 60 per cent normally. For example, trading volume from China to Europe increased nearly five times in February 2021 compared with the same period last year.
North America is a leader in major aviation markets, with international demand rising 8.5% in January, up from 4.4% in December. Most of the activities are carried out throughout the Pacific or through hubs in the Middle East outside Asia. International capacity in the region fell by 8.5 per cent.
So in the case of air freight demand so hot, how about air freight?
03 Freight is still high
After the Chinese lunar new year, air freight prices have soared again, especially through asia.
Analysts said prices were less likely to fall in the second half of the year as supplies for the remaining large intercontinental aircraft remained well below pre-epidemic levels and shipping capacity had been overordered.
Market watchers describe air freight as volatile. The epidemic has changed people’s lives and economic conditions. So that aviation logistics professionals say it is difficult to make assumptions about the direction of the market. An unusually high demand for imports and a shortage of airliners boosted Asia’s airlift by 50% in the first half of February.
FreightWaves SONAR and other indicators show that companies now book about 2.5 times the cost of air transportation on core routes compared to recent years.
In addition, air shipments fell by only 30% in the first week after the lunar new year, which began on February 12th, about half of the first two years of aviation, as china did not stop work this year. The aircraft’s load factor is only 1% lower, compared with about 20% in 2019 and 2020.
Continued production has exacerbated congestion in ports in the United States and Europe, overstocking supply chains and continuing congestion in many ports in the United States and Europe. Ocean carriers have been fully booked and there are not enough containers to meet the surge in demand from many companies.
This led to spot prices from Asia to the West Coast of the United States of America of about $5,000 per forty-foot equivalent unit (an increase of 260 per cent over the same period last year), while spot prices to northern Europe of more than $8,000, and shippers again moved the goods to air.
Air freight index business development director Robert Frey (Robert Frei) said in February’s hna air index newsletter that it would cost $110,000 to ship a container to Europe at average air freight prices.
Post time: Mar-18-2021