Stephen Jen, wahoze ari umuhanga mu by'ifaranga rya Morgan Stanley, yatanze igitekerezo cy'uburyo buzwi cyane bwo "kugaragaza isura y'amadolari": idolari rirakomera iyo ubukungu bumeze nabi kandi buteye imbere. Ibiraro bya Terminal ya Din Rail, Amakoti ya D-Sub na Utugarura-mucyo tw'umutekano wo mu muhanda bigomba kwitabwaho.
Kubera ko —— ku izamuka ry’ibiciro rya Fed nk’irya kagoma, igipimo cy’idolari cyageze ku rwego rwo hejuru mu myaka 20 ishize, kandi amafaranga atari aya Amerika yaragabanutse cyane.
Bitewe n'uko idolari rya Amerika rihagaze ubu mu rwego rw'imari ku isi, ubucuruzi mpuzamahanga muri rusange bushingira ku idolari rya Amerika. Iyo ifaranga ry'igihugu rigabanutse cyane ugereranije n'idolari rya Amerika, ikiguzi cyo gutumiza ibicuruzwa kizamuka cyane icyarimwe. Bityo twabonye abaguzi benshi mu bakiriya batari Abanyamerika basaba kugabanyirizwa ibiciro, kwishyura bitinze, no guhagarika ibiciro.
Ibi bikurikira ni ukugabanuka gukomeye k’agaciro muri uyu mwaka mu bihugu bimwe na bimwe, abacuruzi bo mu mahanga bohereza aya masoko, bagomba kwitondera umutekano w’ubwishyu!
Nomero 1 y'amayero
Ifaranga rya Euro ryagabanutseho 15% ugereranyije n'idolari kugeza ubu muri uyu mwaka. Ku ya 22 Kanama, ifaranga rya Euro ryagabanutseho ku nshuro ya kabiri uyu mwaka, rigera kuri 0.9926, urwego rwo hasi cyane kuva mu 2002. Kandi igabanuka ry'agaciro ka Euro risa n'aho ritangiye.
Morgan Stanley yiteze ko ifaranga rya euro rizagabanuka rikagera kuri 0.97 muri iki gihembwe mu gihe Fed izakomeza gukomera, naho Nomura ikaba ifite intego yo kugera kuri 0.975 mu mpera za Nzeri, mbere y’uko amasoko yitega 0.95 cyangwa kugabanuka mu gihe ingufu z’amashanyarazi zongera ibyago byo kubura amashanyarazi.
Abahanga mu by'ubukungu bateganya ko CPI y’akarere ka euro izagera kuri 9% muri Kanama, irindi rushanwa rikaba riri hejuru cyane kandi rikubye inshuro zirenga enye intego ya 2%, mu gihe ifaranga rito ry’ifaranga ryagize ibibazo by’izamuka ry’ibiciro mu gihugu rirushaho kwiyongera bitewe no kongera ibiciro by’ibitumizwa mu mahanga.
NO. ibiro 2
Ifaranga rya Pawundi ryagize ukwezi kubi cyane kuva mu matora ya Brexit yo mu 2016 muri Kanama, ubwo ryagabanukaga ku kigero kirenga 4% ugereranyije n'idolari. Sterling yagabanutseho 11.8% ugereranyije n'idolari kugeza ubu uyu mwaka, ibi bikaba ari rimwe mu mafaranga yitwaye nabi cyane muri G10.
Goldman Sachs yizera ko Ubwongereza bushobora kugwa mu muvuduko w’ubukungu mu gihembwe cya kane. Citi iteganya ko izamuka ry’ibiciro mu Bwongereza rizazamukaho 18% muri Mutarama 2023.
N° 3 nshya
Yen yagurishijwe gato imanuka hejuru y'idolari igera kuri Y 139.50 ku isoko ry'ifaranga rya Tokyo ku ya 1 Nzeri, urwego ruto cyane mu myaka 24 ishize. Muri Kanama honyine, yen yagabanutse hafi 4% kandi kugeza ubu yagabanutseho ibirenze 18% muri uyu mwaka!
Ariko, Banki y'Ubuyapani ntabwo yiteguye kugira icyo ikora kuri yen idafite imbaraga. Haruhiko Kuroda, perezida wa Banki y'Ubuyapani, aherutse gushimangira ko politiki y'imari idashingiye kuri yen, ahubwo ishingiye ku biciro.
Ingano y’iy ...
Intsinzi ya No.4
Ifaranga rya Koreya y'Epfo ryagabanutse ku rwego rwo hasi cyane kuva mu 2009, kandi ryagabanutseho 11% ugereranyije n'idolari rya Amerika kugeza ubu muri uyu mwaka.
Guverineri wa Banki ya Koreya, Cheung-yong Rhee, yavuze ko ibiciro bitashoboraga kwirengagiza nyuma y’ishoramari rya Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika (Fed) kugira ngo bive mu buyobozi. Banki ya Koreya ubu yazamuye iteganyagihe ry’izamuka ry’ibiciro by’abaguzi (CPI) kugeza kuri 5.2% uyu mwaka. Izamuka ry’ibiciro by’abaguzi (CPI) rya Koreya y'Epfo ryazamutseho 6.3% muri Nyakanga ugereranyije n’umwaka ushize, riva kuri 6% muri Kamena kandi ku rwego rwo hejuru kuva mu gihe cy’ihungabana ry’ubukungu ryo mu Ugushyingo 1998.
NO.5 Lira yo muri Turukiya
Muri uyu mwaka, lira yo muri Turukiya yagabanutseho hafi 26% hagati muri Kanama.
Ubu Turukiya ni yo "mwami w'izamuka ry'ibiciro ku isi, yazamutseho 79.6% ugereranyije n'umwaka ushize muri Nyakanga, ikaba yari hejuru mu myaka 24 ishize. I Istanbul, umujyi utuwe cyane muri Turukiya, ibiciro byazamutseho 99% muri Nyakanga ugereranyije n'umwaka ushize.
Abacuruzi bo muri Turukiya bavuga ko baguraga imifuka y'ibiribwa bakishyura amafaranga ari munsi ya 100, ariko ubu bashobora kugura ibiro bike byo guteka, utuntu duto na soda. Abanyaturukiya bemeye ko ibikoresho by'ibanze byabaye indorerwamo, "mu bihe bibi".
No.6 Peso ya Argentine
Izamuka ry’ibiciro ryageze kuri 71% muri Nyakanga, rikaba ryari hejuru cyane mu myaka hafi 30 ishize, kandi abahanga mu by’ubukungu bari biteze ko rizongera kugera kuri 90% mu mpera z’uyu mwaka! Hagati aho, peso yo muri Argentine (isoko ry’umukara) yarenze ku kigero cyo mu mutwe cya peso 300 ku ya 19 Nyakanga imanuka ikagera ku kigero cyo hasi cyane cya peso 338 ku ya 22 Nyakanga. Ku isoko ryemewe, peso yo muri Argentine nayo yatakaje 37% ugereranyije n’idorari mu mwaka ushize.
Argentine ni ubukungu bushingiye ku kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga, butumiza ibicuruzwa byinshi bicuruzwa. Ubwiyongere bw'ingufu mpuzamahanga n'ibikoresho fatizo n'ibindi bicuruzwa byatumye izamuka ry'ibiciro ryinjira mu mahanga, mu gihe igabanuka rikomeye ry'agaciro k'ifaranga rirushaho kongera igitutu cy'izamuka ry'ibiciro ryinjira mu mahanga. Kugira ngo hirindwe izamuka ry'ibiciro, banki nkuru ya Argentine yagurishaga amadolari buri munsi kugira ngo yirinde gucika intege kwa peso.
Byongeye kandi, Banki Nkuru ya Arijantine yasohoye Itangazo No. A7532 ku ya 27 Kamena, ryongera igihe cyo kugenzura itumizwa ry’ivunjisha mu buryo bw’imari ku bicuruzwa biva mu mahanga n’ibicuruzwa bidakoresha uruhusa rwo kwikora mu gihe cy’amezi atatu kugeza ku ya 30 Nzeri uyu mwaka. Vuba aha, Gasutamo ya Arijantine yatangiye kandi kurwanya ihohoterwa ry’ubucuruzi bw’ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga n’ibyoherezwa mu mahanga, ahanini rikubiyemo gutanga raporo z’ibinyoma ku biciro by’ibicuruzwa mu bucuruzi bw’ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga n’ibyoherezwa mu mahanga, nko gutanga inyemezabwishyu nke z’ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga n’inyemezabwishyu nyinshi z’ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga. Icyiciro cya mbere cy’ibikorwa byo gukosora cyagizwe n’ibigo 13.640 n’ibigo 722, hamwe n’igiciro rusange cy’ibicuruzwa kikaba kingana na miliyari 1.25 z’amadolari y’Amerika.
No.7 Ipawundi yo muri Misiri
—— Ibiciro by'ingano ku isi byarazamutse, bituma Misiri iba ikigo kinini cy’ingano gitumiza mu mahanga ku isi, kandi byagize ingaruka zikomeye, aho ibiciro by’ibiribwa bimwe na bimwe byazamutseho 66%, bituma izamuka ry’ibiciro rigera kuri 15%.
Ipawundi yo mu Misiri ubu iri kugurishwa ku madolari 19.1, ikaba ari iya kabiri iri hasi cyane mu mateka, kandi iri munsi yayo mu gihe cy'imvura y'itumba yo mu 2016.
Abacuruzi b'abanyamahanga batangaje ko ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu Misiri bihagaze mu cyambu kubera ko abaguzi badashobora gutanga ibaruwa igaragaza ko ari igiciro.
No.8 Forint yo muri Hongiriya
Ifaranga rikomeye mu Burayi bw'Iburasirazuba naryo ryahuye n'ikibazo gikomeye cy'ihungabana ry'ubukungu mu karere ka Euro ndetse n'igabanuka ry'ubukungu bwa Euro.
Forint yo muri Hongiriya ntiyigeze irusha lira ya Turukiya uyu mwaka, aho yatakaje ku kigero kirenga 26% ugereranyije n'idolari. Itangazamakuru ryo muri Hongiriya ryanatangaje ku ngingo zivuga ngo "Forin yari ifaranga ridafite imbaraga ku isi", "Forin yakubiswe bikomeye" na "Forin yaguye mu kantu ugereranyije n'idolari n'ifaranga rya euro".
NO.9, Zloty, Polonye
Zloty ya Polonye yatakaje 12% ugereranyije n'idolari kuva mu mpera za Gashyantare. Izamuka ry'ibiciro ubu riri hejuru kugeza kuri 15.7%.
Polonye, ikomeje kwibasira Uburusiya, nayo yafatiwe ibihano. Polonye ni igihugu gikomeye mu Burayi gitanga ingufu z'amakara kandi ni cyo kinini mu Muryango w'Ubumwe bw'u Burayi, ikora toni zirenga miliyoni 50 z'amakara ku mwaka, ariko iracyatumiza toni zigera kuri miliyoni 12 z'amakara ku mwaka. Ingo za miliyoni z'Abanyapolonye zizagira ikibazo cy'ibura ry'amakara mu gihe cy'itumba nyuma y'icyemezo cya guverinoma ya Polonye cyo gufatira ibihano amakara y'Uburusiya.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Ukwakira-18-2022