A cikin 'yan kwanakin nan, sakamakon abin da ya faru a Rasha da Ukraine, farashin musayar kuɗi, kayan masarufi da sauran muhimman abubuwan da suka shafi farashin cinikin ƙasashen waje sun yi ta canzawa sosai. Ta yaya ya kamata mu 'yan kasuwa na ƙasashen waje mu magance su don guje wa haɗari? Bulogin Tashar Sukurori, Mai haɗawa na mata kuma Mai nuna babur ya kamata a lura.
Tasirin RMB ya kai maki 6.3!
A ranar ciniki ta farko ta wannan shekarar, an saita ƙimar daidaito ta tsakiya a kan dala 6.3794. A ranar 1 ga Maris, an saita ƙimar daidaito ta tsakiya a yuan 6.3014, mafi girma a cikin sama da shekaru uku da rabi, sama da maki 700 na tushe daga farkon shekara.
A cikin watanni biyu na farko na 2022, har zuwa karfe 18:00 na ranar 28 ga Fabrairu, RMB na kan teku ya kasance a 6.3074, wanda ya karu da kashi 1.03% a shekarar; RMB na bakin teku ya kai matsayi mafi girma a cikin rana na 6.3089, mafi ƙanƙanta shine 6.3275, wanda ya karu da kashi 0.86% a shekarar.
A dawo shekara guda, riba ta kan ƙare maki ɗaya.
Wannan yanayin yana sa mutane da yawa 'yan kasuwa na ƙasashen waje su so su yi kuka.
Ba za mu iya yin komai ba sai dai mu tambaya:
Ma'aunin dala ya tashi zuwa 96 (mafi girma tun daga watan Yulin 2020), to me yasa yuan bai tafi ko ta yaya ba?
Yanayin da ake ciki a duniya ya rage darajar kudin Yuro zuwa Yuro, to me yasa Yuan ta ci gaba da kasancewa a matsayi mafi girma a cikin shekaru hudu?
Wannan kuwa saboda, da farko dai, a rabin shekarar da ta gabata, musamman a kwata na huɗu, RMB ta nuna wani bambanci mai ban mamaki tsakanin dala ta Amurka da ma'aunin DOLLAR, tare da ƙarfin ma'aunin dala ta Amurka, RMB ta fi dalar Amurka ƙarfi.
Na biyu, a halin da ake ciki yanzu, kuɗaɗen ajiya na gargajiya kamar ayyukan ajiya na euro sun raunana, kuma kasuwa ta fara neman sabbin kadarorin ajiya na aminci. Godiya ga yanayin ci gaban zamantakewa na China mai ɗorewa, manufofin kuɗi da na kuɗi masu kyau da kuma ribar da ta samu daga kadarori, kadarorin RMB suna ƙara samun karɓuwa daga masu zuba jari na ƙasashen duniya, kuma darajar musayar kuɗi tana ƙaruwa a hankali.
A cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, ana sa ran yanayin "mafaka" na kadarorin RMB da buƙatun masu fitar da kaya don sasantawa da tallace-tallace na musayar kuɗi na ƙasashen waje zai taimaka wajen ci gaba da samun ƙarfin musayar kuɗi.
Han Fuling, farfesa a fannin kuɗi a Jami'ar Kuɗi da Tattalin Arziki ta Tsakiya, ya ce ci gaban fitar da kayayyaki zuwa ƙasashen waje ya kai kololuwa a shekarar 2021, kuma ci gaban cinikayyar ƙasashen waje zai iya raguwa a shekarar 2022. Dangane da abubuwan da suka shafi hakan, ya yi hasashen cewa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a kwanan nan a kan dala, makomar za ta kasance mai daidaito, sauyin yanayi a ɓangarorin biyu, hauhawar farashi da faɗuwa abu ne da ya zama ruwan dare.
Ruble ya faɗi da kashi 30%!
Tun bayan barkewar rikicin a ranar 24 ga Fabrairu, darajar ruble ta Rasha ta ci gaba da faduwa akai-akai.
A ranar 24 ga Fabrairu, darajar ruble ta Rasha ta faɗi zuwa 1:86 akan dalar Amurka, matakin mafi ƙanƙanta tun daga Janairun 2016. Ruble ya faɗi zuwa 1:99.99 akan Yuro, matakin mafi ƙanƙanta tun Disamba 2014.
Amma wannan shine farkon. Da ƙarfe 15:30 na yamma a ranar 28 ga Fabrairu, agogon Beijing, ruble ya faɗi zuwa ruble 109 akan dala 1, ya faɗi da sama da kashi 30%, wanda ya zarce ƙa'idar tunani ta dala 1 akan ruble 100, wanda ya sake kafa sabon tarihi.
A ranar 28 ga Fabrairu, babban bankin Rasha ya ɗaga darajar ribar ma'aunin daga kashi 9.5% zuwa kashi 20%. Sanarwar da babban bankin ya fitar ta ce yanayin waje na tattalin arzikin Rasha ya canza sosai, inda babban ƙaruwar riba ke da nufin kiyaye daidaiton kuɗi da farashi da kuma kare tanadin 'yan ƙasa daga raguwar darajar kuɗi. Dala ta faɗi akan ruble bayan da babban bankin ya ɗaga darajar riba, bayan rufewa a kashi 94.6 kuma ta koma kashi 13%.
Amma mazauna Rasha sun fara yin layi zuwa ATM don cire kuɗin ƙasashen waje idan darajar ruble ta ci gaba da faɗuwa.
A halin yanzu a Rasha, har zuwa ranar 27 ga Fabrairu, babban jerin manyan kantunan sayar da burodi, ƙwai, madara da sauran farashin abinci na yau da kullun bai bayyana a sarari ba, amma kayan gida, wayoyin hannu, motoci da sauran farashi mai tsada da tallace-tallace sun shafi raguwar darajar ruble, akwai ɗalibai da yawa a Rasha a dandamalin sada zumunta sun ƙaddamar da kayayyaki na alfarma a madadin wakilin.
Fitar da wasu bankunan Rasha daga tsarin biyan kuɗi na SWIFT yana nufin zai yanke su daga tsarin bankunan duniya kuma ba za su iya biyan kuɗin ketare iyaka ba, wanda hakan zai shafi cinikin ƙasashen duniya.
Saboda haka, a fannin cinikin ƙasashen waje, yawancin abokan cinikin Rasha suna zuwa don tambaya ko za a iya canza kuɗin zuwa RMB; a gefe guda kuma, yawancin abokan cinikin Ukraine sun dakatar da oda, kuma abokan cinikin Gabashin Turai da yawa (kamar Poland) suma suna fuskantar matsala.
Ta yaya 'yan kasuwa na ƙasashen waje ke guje wa haɗarin?
A halin yanzu, haɗarin da masana'antar cinikin ƙasashen waje ke fuskanta galibi yana cikin fannoni uku:
01
Rasha ce ke da kusan kashi 6% na samar da aluminum a duniya da kuma kusan kashi 7% na samar da nickel a duniya. Tashin hankali, ya kara hadarin samar da kayayyaki a kasuwa, farashin aluminum, nickel ya karu. Aluminum, nickel da sauran kayan aiki sun karu, farashin kasuwanci ya karu.
02
Sauye-sauyen farashin musayar kuɗi yana ƙaruwa, kuma farashi yana da wahalar ƙididdigewa.
03
Wasu kamfanonin Gabashin Turai suna fuskantar matsala sakamakon yanayin da kuma canjin kuɗi, kuma haɗarin tara kuɗinmu yana ƙaruwa.
Ya kamata mu shirya nan take a waɗannan fannoni:
01 Kula da haɗarin canjin kuɗi
Fahimtar manufar da ke tattare da sauyin farashin musayar kuɗi na RMB, dalar Amurka da Yuro;
Amsa mai ma'ana ga sauyin darajar kudin RMB domin hana cin riba.
02 Kula da tsaron tattara kudaden waje
Canje-canje a SWIFT bayan fitar da Rasha da martani;
Martanin da za a mayar nan gaba ga cinikin Rasha;
Nasihu don karɓar kuɗi daga abokan cinikin Gabashin Turai.
03 Kula da farashin kayan masarufi
Ana ba da shawarar fara shirya kayan da wuri-wuri.
Lokacin Saƙo: Maris-07-2022