Masu zuba jari suna damuwa game da hasashen samar da kayayyaki yayin da farashin aluminum na ƙasashen duniya ya kai wani sabon matsayi tun daga shekarar 2011 a ranar 6 ga Satumba, wanda rikicin siyasar cikin gida a Guinea ya shafa. Mai haɗa Micro Jack, Nau'in kan shafi kuma Kebul mai faɗi suna da babban tasiri.
Kamfanonin hakar ma'adinai masu alaƙa sun sami kuɗaɗen shiga, kamfanin Alcoa da kamfanin makamashi mai sabuntawa Norsk Hydro) sun tashi da kashi 5%, sama da mafi girman da suka samu a shekarar 2008, kuma Rusa ta tashi da sama da kashi 14% zuwa mafi girman tarihi.
Tawayen Guinea ya ƙara farashin bauxite.
A ranar Lahadi, ƙasar Guinea da ke Yammacin Afirka ta faru. A matsayinta na ƙasar da ke da mafi girman ajiyar bauxite a duniya, sauye-sauyen cikin gida sun haifar da hauhawar farashin bauxite kai tsaye.
Farashin jigilar bauxite daga Guinea zuwa China ya kai dala $50.50 a kowace tan tun watanni 18 a ranar Litinin, wanda ya karu da kashi 1% idan aka kwatanta da ranar Juma'a, a cewar kiyasin karafa na Asiya. Farashin jigilar bauxite ya karu da kashi 16% a wannan shekarar. Amma karuwar jigilar bauxite ta samo asali ne daga damuwar masu saye cewa Guinea za ta shafi wadatar da ake samu, amma babu wani kamfanin hakar ma'adinai da ya bayar da rahoton kawo cikas ga wadatar da ake samu.
Kamfanin LME bauxite ya kai kusan shekaru goma a kasuwa yayin da aluminum-futures ya tashi a ranar Litinin. Tasirin ya kuma yaɗu zuwa kasuwar hannayen jari. A kasuwannin duniya, hannun jarin masu samar da aluminum kamar Norsk Hydro (Norwegian) da Rusal (Rusal) - Samu Rahoton ya tashi, yayin da a kasuwannin hannun jari na A-share, masu samar da aluminum kamar Chinalco suma sun tashi.
Rundunar sojin Guinea ta yi alƙawarin cewa ba za ta shafi fitar da ma'adinai daga ƙasashen waje ba
Kasashen duniya da dama sun yi Allah wadai da ziyarar Guinea, wanda hakan ya sanya matsin lamba mai yawa ga sojojin Guinea. A ranar Litinin, shugaban sojojin Guinea (Mamady Doumbouya) ya yi alƙawarin kafa gwamnatin riƙon ƙwarya ta ƙasa da kuma garantin cewa ba za a rage fitar da ma'adinai daga ƙasar Guinea ba.
Dumbuya ya ce iyakar ruwan Guinea za ta ci gaba da kasancewa a bude domin a iya fitar da ma'adinan. Ya kuma ce dokar hana zirga-zirgar kasa da ake amfani da ita a yanzu ba ta shafi masana'antar hakar ma'adinai ba. "Ina iya tabbatar wa abokan huldata na kasuwanci da tattalin arziki cewa ayyukan hakar ma'adinai a Guinea za su ci gaba da gudana kamar yadda aka saba. Muna rokon kamfanonin hakar ma'adinai da su ci gaba da ayyukansu."
Guinea (ƙwararre a fannin bauxite Bob Adam) ya ce: "Yayin da ake samun gagarumin tasiri a kan fitar da kayayyaki zuwa ƙasashen waje a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, ba shi da yawa. Satumba ya kasance a mafi ƙasƙanci lokacin zagayowar fitar da kayayyaki zuwa ƙasashen waje."
Bugu da ƙari, ya lura cewa bauxite shine mabuɗin tattalin arzikin Guinea da kuma babbar hanyar samun kuɗin shiga na ƙasashen waje a ƙasar, kuma "kowace gwamnati mai zuwa za ta so ta tabbatar da cewa wannan ba zai kawo cikas ga kuɗaɗen shiga da saka hannun jari na gaba ba."
Bauxite tushen amfani da tattalin arzikin Guinea ne
Ana amfani da Bauxite galibi wajen samar da alumina, alumina galibi ana amfani da ita wajen fitar da aluminum, ana iya amfani da aluminum sosai a cikin motoci, wayoyin komai da ruwanka da tsarin makamashi. Farashin aluminum na ƙasashen duniya ya tashi zuwa kusan shekaru goma mafi girma na $2,782 / tan a cinikin Asiya a ranar Talata, kuma ya ci gaba da girgiza sosai.
Kasar Guinea tana da arzikin albarkatun ma'adinai, kuma ma'adinan bauxite nata suna matsayi na farko kuma sune na biyu mafi girma a duniya wajen samar da kayayyaki. Kasuwancin bauxite muhimmin ginshiki ne na tattalin arzikinta kuma babban tushen samun kudin shiga na musayar kudaden waje. A cewar Ma'aikatar Hako Ma'adinai ta kasar, an samar da tan miliyan 88 na bauxite a duk shekarar da ta gabata.
Kyakkyawan yanayin albarkatu kuma yana jawo hankalin masu zuba jari daga ƙasashen waje da yawa. Kididdigar kafofin watsa labarai ta nuna cewa a rabin farko na 2021, ayyukan bauxite a Guinea sun kai kashi 35.91%, Alcoa sun kai kashi 20.08%, Chinalco sun kai kashi 15.15%, aluminum na UAE ya kai kashi 13.57%, kuma Rusa ta kai kashi 6.75%.
Abin lura shi ne, Guinea ita ce babbar mai samar da bauxite a China, inda fitar da kayayyaki zuwa China ya kusa zama na farko da Australia. A shekarar 2020, jimillar shigo da bauxite ya kai tan miliyan 111.587, wanda hakan ya karu da kashi 10.9% a kowace shekara, wanda daga ciki tan miliyan 52.6701 daga Guinea, wanda ya kai kashi 47.2% na jimillar shigo da kayayyaki, wanda ya karu da kashi 18.51% a kowace shekara.
Aikin hakar ma'adinai a Guinea yana ci gaba da gudana
A gaskiya ma, sojojin Guinea ba su yi wani tasiri kai tsaye kan ayyukan hakar ma'adinai na gida kamar bauxite na gida ba. A cewar Reuters, kamfanoni da ke zuba jari a Guinea a yanzu don haɓaka ayyukan hakar ma'adinai sun ce ayyukan hakar ma'adinai ba su yi wani tasiri sosai ba.
Mai magana da yawun kamfanin Chinalco ta ce ayyukan kamfanin na bauxite a Guinea suna aiki yadda ya kamata; wani mai magana da yawun kamfanin bauxite na Guinea CBG shi ma ya ce rikicin bai shafi ma'adinan nasa ba.
Kamfanin TOP International Holdings Ltd, wanda ke da ma'adanai biyu na bauxite a Guinea, ya ce kasuwancin yana ci gaba da "ƙarancin cikas" tare da barguna biyu na bauxite.
Kamfanin hakar zinare AngloGold Ashanti (BA) ya fitar da wata sanarwa yana cewa yana aiki akai-akai a ma'adinan zinare na Siguiri (Siguiri) da ke Guinea. Ma'adinan zinare ya samar da oza 117,000 na zinariya a cikin watanni shida na farko na shekara.
Kamfanin Rusa, wanda ke da matatar mai guda uku ta bauxite da kuma matatar alumina guda ɗaya a Guinea, bai mayar da martani nan take ba game da ko an katse ayyukan hakar ma'adinai, duk da cewa ya ce zai yi la'akari da janye dukkan ma'aikatan Rasha idan yanayin siyasar cikin gida ya ci gaba da tabarbarewa. Ma'adinan Chinalco a Guinea sun kai kashi 42% na jimillar ƙarfin samar da su.
Duk da haka, a wannan karon ana ƙara shakku game da makomar aikin ƙarfe na Guinea. Aikin Simandu (Simandou) na China, babban aikin ƙarfe da ba a haɓaka ba, mallakar Guinea, ya zuba jari mai yawa, inda Rio Tinto, Masana'antar Aluminum ta China, Yantai Port Group, China Baowu da sauran kamfanoni duk suka shiga cikin wannan jarin.
Andrew Gadd, babban mai sharhi kan karafa na CRU Group (Andrew Gadd), ya ce, "Ya zama da wahala a sami tallafin kudi ga Simandu, kuma rashin tabbas kan abubuwan da ke faruwa a yanzu zai kalubalanci alkawuran da ke tattare da hakan."
Menene tasirin da ke kan kasuwar albarkatun ƙasa ta cikin gida?
"Aluminum yana ɗaya daga cikin ƙarfe mafi kyau a masana'antu, wanda ya karu da kusan kashi 50% a wannan shekarar. Labarai daga Guinea na iya ƙara ƙaruwar gibin wadata da buƙata, wanda barazanar samar da kayayyaki ke haifarwa, a cikin ƙaruwar buƙatu a duniya." Tawagar Bankin Saab ta ce a cikin wani rahoto ranar Litinin.
Hannun jarin aluminum na kasar Sin, wani kamfani mallakar gwamnati kuma daya daga cikin manyan masu samar da aluminum a duniya, ya tashi da kusan kashi 40% a ranar Litinin, inda hannun jarin A ya karu da adadin da ake bukata a kullum.
Hannun jarin hinalco ya ƙare da kashi 5.5%, wanda ya ci gaba da ƙaruwar buƙatu a China da hauhawar farashin aluminum a duniya. Hannun jarin Chinalco ya zuwa yanzu a shekarar 2021 yayin da ake sa ran samun riba zai ƙaru bayan da China ta zama mai shigo da aluminum a shekarar 2020.
Kamfanin Masana'antar Karfe na China Nonferrous ya ce farashin aluminum ya karu sosai saboda damuwar samar da kayayyaki tun daga 'yan watannin da suka gabata. A rabin farko na shekarar 2021, fitar da aluminum da aka yi da kuma shigo da shi daga China ya kai tan miliyan 22.89 da tan 930,000, bi da bi, yayin da samar da aluminum da shigo da shi daga China ya karu da kashi 9.5% a shekara da kuma kashi 167.6%, bi da bi.
Kwantiragin aluminum na yau da kullun na Shanghai Futures Exchange a ranar Litinin ya kasance yuan 21,075 a kowace tan, wanda ya ragu da kashi 1.5% idan aka kwatanta da farashin rufewa da ya gabata, in ji ƙungiyar. Kwantiragin ya kasance mafi girma tun makonnin da suka gabata, inda ya kai dala $21,495 a kowace tan a ranar 30 ga Agusta.
Bloomberg (Bloomberg) ta ba da rahoton cewa akwai ƙalubale da ke fuskantar samar da aluminum da ba a sarrafa ba a Cibiyar Aluminum ta Guangxi, yayin da ƙarfin wutar lantarki a lokacin ke haifar da raguwar samar da shi.
Wei Lai (TF Futures Co.) -Get Report ya ce: "Jerin manufofin China na baya-bayan nan sun shafi samar da aluminum da kuma haɓaka farashi, suna sa ran rufin amfani da wutar lantarki da sauran manufofi masu alaƙa za su ci gaba har zuwa ƙarshen shekara. Saboda haka, matuƙar ana iya kiyaye buƙatar aluminum da wadata, to yanayin aluminum a kasuwa abu ne mai ma'ana, kuma farashin aluminum yana da wuya a dawo da shi."
Cibiyoyi da yawa suna ci gaba da ganin hauhawar farashin aluminum na ɗan gajeren lokaci. Goldman Sachs yana tsammanin ƙarin ribar aluminum na ɗan lokaci yayin da hasashen samar da kayayyaki na duniya zai iya ta'azzara. Hukumar Wall Street ta ɗaga farashin aluminum ɗinta zuwa $3,200 kowace tan na tsawon watanni 12 masu zuwa.
Lokacin Saƙo: Satumba-09-2021