Abatyali-mali bakhathazekile ngembonakalo yokubonelela njengoko amaxabiso e-aluminium aphesheya enyuke kakhulu ukusukela ngo-2011 nge-6 kaSeptemba, echatshazelwe zizidubedube zezopolitiko zasekhaya eGuinea. Isixhumi seMicro Jack, Phina intloko yentloko kwaye Intambo eSicaba zinempembelelo enkulu.
Iinkampani zemigodi ezinxulumene noko zifumene inkxaso-mali, i-Alcoa kunye nenkampani yamandla avuselelekayo iNorsk Hydro) zinyuke nge-5%, ngaphezulu komgangatho wayo ophezulu ngo-2008, kwaye iRusa inyuke ngaphezulu kwe-14% ukuya kwinqanaba eliphezulu elirekhodiweyo.
Uvukelo lwaseGuinea lunyuse ixabiso le-bauxite.
NgeCawa, ilizwe laseNtshona Afrika laseGuinea lenzekile. Njengelizwe elineendawo zokugcina i-bauxite ezinkulu kwihlabathi, utshintsho lwalo lwasekhaya luye lwabangela ngokuthe ngqo ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-bauxite.
Amaxabiso okuthunyelwa kwe-bauxite evela eGuinea ukuya eTshayina afikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu le-$50.50 / itoni ukusukela kwiinyanga ezili-18 ngoMvulo, enyuke nge-1% ukusuka ngoLwesihlanu, ngokutsho koqikelelo lweentsimbi zaseAsia. Amaxabiso okuhanjiswa kwe-bauxite anyuke nge-16% kulo nyaka. Kodwa ukunyuka kokuhanjiswa kwe-bauxite kubangelwa yinkxalabo yabathengi yokuba iGuinea iya kuchaphazela ukuhanjiswa, kodwa akukho basebenzi bemigodi abaxele ukuphazamiseka kokunikezelwa.
I-bauxite ye-LME ifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu phantse kwiminyaka elishumi njengoko i-aluminium-futures inyuke ngoMvulo. Isiphumo sikwasasazeke kwimarike yesitokhwe. Kwiimarike zamazwe ngamazwe, izabelo zabavelisi be-aluminium ezifana neNorsk Hydro (Norwegian) kunye neRusal (Rusal) -Get Report zinyukile, ngelixa kwiimarike ze-A-share, abavelisi be-aluminium abafana neChinalco nabo benyukile.
Umkhosi waseGuinea uthembise ukuba awuyi kuyichaphazela intengiso yezimbiwa kwamanye amazwe
Utyelelo lwaseGuinea lugxekwe ngamazwe amaninzi kwihlabathi liphela, nto leyo ebeke uxinzelelo olukhulu kumkhosi waseGuinea. NgoMvulo, inkokeli yomkhosi waseGuinea (uMamady Doumbouya) ithembise urhulumente wesizwe wenguqu kunye nesiqinisekiso sokuba ukuthunyelwa kwezimbiwa eGuinea akuyi kuncitshiswa.
UDumbuya uthe umda waselwandle waseGuinea uza kuhlala uvuliwe ukuze imigodi ithunyelwe kwamanye amazwe. Ukwathe umthetho welizwe okhoyo awusebenzi kushishino lwemigodi. "Ndingaqinisekisa amaqabane am kwezoshishino nakwezoqoqosho ukuba imisebenzi yemigodi eGuinea iza kuqhubeka ngokwesiqhelo. Sicela iinkampani zemigodi ukuba ziqhubeke nemisebenzi yazo."
IGuinea (ingcali kushishino lwe-bauxite uBob Adam) uthe: "Amathuba okuba kubekho impembelelo enkulu kwixesha elifutshane ekuthunyelweni kwamanye amazwe mancinci kakhulu. USeptemba ube kwinqanaba eliphantsi kakhulu lomjikelo wokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwe-bauxite."
Ukongeza, uqaphele ukuba i-bauxite ibalulekile kuqoqosho lwaseGuinea kunye nomthombo omkhulu wengeniso yelizwe yezemali zangaphandle, kwaye "nawuphi na urhulumente ozayo uya kufuna ukuqinisekisa ukuba oku akubeki emngciphekweni ingeniso kunye notyalo-mali lwexesha elizayo."
I-Bauxite ngumthombo wokusetyenziswa kwezoqoqosho eGuinea
I-Bauxite isetyenziswa kakhulu ekuveliseni i-alumina, i-alumina isetyenziswa kakhulu ekukhupheni i-aluminium, i-aluminium ingasetyenziswa kakhulu kwiimoto, ii-smartphones kunye neenkqubo zamandla. Amaxabiso e-aluminium aphesheya anyuke afikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu eliphantse libe yiminyaka elishumi le-$2,782 ngetoni kurhwebo lwase-Asia ngoLwesibini, kwaye ahlala ekhwankqisiwe kakhulu.
IGuinea ityebile kwimithombo yezimbiwa, kwaye iindawo zayo zokugcina i-bauxite zibekwe kwindawo yokuqala kwaye zezona zivelisa isibini ngobukhulu kwihlabathi. Ishishini le-bauxite liyintsika ephambili kuqoqosho lwayo kwaye ngumthombo ophambili wengeniso yezimali zangaphandle. Ngokutsho kweSebe lezeMigodi lelizwe, iitoni ezingama-88 ezigidi ze-bauxite zaveliswa kulo lonke unyaka ophelileyo.
Iimeko ezilungileyo zemithombo zikwatsala utyalo-mali oluninzi lwaphesheya. Izibalo zeendaba zibonisa ukuba kwisiqingatha sokuqala sowama-2021, iiprojekthi ze-bauxite eGuinea zibambe i-35.91%, i-Alcoa ibambe i-20.08%, i-Chinalco ibambe i-15.15%, i-aluminium yase-UAE ibambe i-13.57%, kwaye iRusa ibambe i-6.75%.
Okuphawulekayo kukuba, iGuinea ngumthengisi omkhulu we-bauxite eTshayina, kwaye ukuthunyelwa kwayo eTshayina kuphantse kwalingana nendawo yokuqala ne-Australia. Ngo-2020, ukungeniswa kwe-bauxite iyonke bekuyi-111.587 yezigidi zeetoni, ukunyuka okuqhubekekayo kwe-10.9% ngonyaka, apho iitoni ezingama-52.6701 ezigidi zivela eGuinea, ezibalelwa kwi-47.2% yenani lilonke lokungeniswa, ukunyuka kwe-18.51% ngonyaka.
Imisebenzi yokwemba eGuinea isebenza ngokusisiseko
Enyanisweni, umkhosi waseGuinea awuzange ube nefuthe elithe ngqo kwimisebenzi yemigodi yasekuhlaleni efana ne-bauxite yasekuhlaleni. Ngokutsho kweReuters, iinkampani ezityala imali eGuinea ngoku ukuphuhlisa iiprojekthi zemigodi zithi imisebenzi yemigodi ayichaphazelekanga kangako.
Isithethi seChinalco sithe imisebenzi ye-bauxite yenkampani eGuinea isebenza ngendlela eqhelekileyo; isithethi senkampani ye-bauxite yaseGuinea i-CBG sikwathe imigodi yayo ayichaphazelekanga yile ngxubakaxaka.
I-TOP International Holdings Ltd, ephethe imigodi emibini ye-bauxite eGuinea, ithe ishishini liyaqhubeka "ngokuphazamiseka okuncinci" zombini izitendi ze-bauxite.
I-AngloGold Ashanti (BA) inkampani enkulu yemigodi yegolide ikhuphe ingxelo ethi isebenza ngokuqhelekileyo kumgodi wegolide waseSiguiri (Siguiri) eGuinea. Lo mgodi wegolide uvelise ii-ounces zegolide ezili-117,000 kwiinyanga ezintandathu zokuqala zonyaka.
IRusa, ene-bauxite ezintathu kunye nomzi-mveliso omnye we-alumina eGuinea, ayizange iphendule ngoko nangoko malunga nokuba imisebenzi yokwemba iphazanyisiwe na, nangona ithe iza kucinga ngokurhoxisa bonke abasebenzi baseRashiya ukuba imeko yayo yezopolitiko yasekhaya iyaqhubeka nokuba mandundu. Imigodi yaseChinalco eGuinea ithatha i-42% yamandla ayo emveliso iyonke.
Nangona kunjalo, ngeli xesha kuphakamisa amathandabuzo angakumbi malunga nekamva leprojekthi yesinyithi yaseGuinea. Iprojekthi yaseSimandu yaseTshayina (iSimandou), eyona projekthi inkulu yesinyithi engaphuhliswanga, ephethwe yiGuinea, ityale imali eninzi, kunye neRio Tinto, iAluminium Industry yaseTshayina, iYantai Port Group, iChina Baowu kunye nezinye iinkampani zonke zithathe inxaxheba kutyalo-mali.
U-Andrew Gadd, umhlalutyi ophezulu we-CRU Group steel (u-Andrew Gadd), uthe, "Kuye kwabonakala kunzima ukufumana inkxaso-mali yeSimandu, kwaye ukungaqiniseki malunga nophuhliso lwangoku kuya kuzisa umngeni kwizibophelelo ezibandakanyekayo."
Iyintoni impembelelo kwimarike yezinto ezikrwada zasekhaya?
"I-Aluminiyam yenye yezona zinyithi zoshishino zinethemba elikhulu, inyuke phantse ngama-50% kulo nyaka. Iindaba ezivela eGuinea zinokunyusa ngakumbi umsantsa wokubonelela kunye nemfuno, obangelwa kukwanda kweengxaki zokubonelela, phakathi kokukhula okukhulu kwemfuno yehlabathi." Iqela leSaab Bank litshilo kwingxelo ngoMvulo.
Izabelo ze-aluminium zaseTshayina, inkampani karhulumente kwaye yenye yezona mveliso zinkulu ze-aluminium kwihlabathi, zinyuke phantse ngama-40% ngoMvulo, kwaye izabelo ze-A zinyuke ngemida yemihla ngemihla.
Izabelo zeHinalco ziphele ziyi-5.5%, ziqhubeka nokunyuka kweenyanga ezininzi kwimfuno ekhulayo eTshayina kunye namaxabiso aphezulu e-aluminium kwihlabathi liphela. Izabelo zeChinalco zisekwi-2021 okwangoku njengoko inzuzo kulindeleke ukuba inyuke emva kokuba iTshayina ibe ngumthengisi we-aluminium ngo-2020.
Amaxabiso e-aluminium anyuke kakhulu ngenxa yenkxalabo yokubonelela ngezixhobo ukusukela kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo, utshilo uMbutho weShishini leeMetals eziNgenaferrous ngoMvulo. Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka ka-2021, imveliso ye-aluminium eluhlaza kunye nokungeniswa kwayo eTshayina ibiziitoni ezingama-22.89 ezigidi kunye neetoni ezingama-930,000, ngokwahlukeneyo, ngelixa imveliso ye-aluminium kunye nokungeniswa kwayo kunyuke nge-9.5% ngonyaka kunye ne-167.6% ngokwahlukeneyo.
Isivumelwano se-aluminium semihla ngemihla seShanghai Futures Exchange ngoMvulo besiyi-21,075 yuan ngetoni, siphantsi nge-1.5% kwixabiso laso lokugqibela, utshilo umbutho. Esi sivumelwano besiphezulu kakhulu ukusukela kwiiveki ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo, sifikelele kwi-$21,495 ngetoni ngomhla wama-30 ku-Agasti.
IBloomberg (Bloomberg) ibika ukuba imingeni ekhulayo kwimveliso ye-aluminium eluhlaza kwiZiko le-Aluminium laseGuangxi iye yachaphazeleka njengoko ukuqina kwamandla onyaka kukhokelele ekuncipheni kwemveliso.
I-Wei Lai (TF Futures Co.) -Get Report ithe: "Uthotho lwemigaqo-nkqubo yakutshanje yaseTshayina ichaphazele imveliso ye-aluminium kwaye inyuse amaxabiso, ilindele ukuba umgangatho wokusetyenziswa kwamandla kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo enxulumene noko iqhubeke kude kube sekupheleni konyaka. Ke ngoko, lo gama nje imfuno kunye nobonelelo lwe-aluminium zinokugcinwa, imeko ye-aluminium kwimarike ilungile, kwaye ixabiso le-aluminium kunzima ukulibuyisela umva."
Amaziko amaninzi ayaqhubeka nokubona amaxabiso e-aluminium exesha elifutshane enyuka. I-Goldman Sachs ilindele ukuba i-aluminium ifumane inzuzo engaphezulu yexeshana njengoko imbonakalo yokubonelela ngemveliso yehlabathi inokuba mandundu. I-arhente yaseWall Street inyuse ixabiso layo le-aluminium ukuya kwi-$3,200 ngetoni kwiinyanga ezili-12 ezizayo.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Septemba-09-2021