Abashoramari bahangayikishijwe n’icyerekezo cy’ibiciro by’ibikoresho bya aluminiyumu ku rwego mpuzamahanga byazamutse cyane kuva mu 2011 ku ya 6 Nzeri, byagizweho ingaruka n’imvururu za politiki mu gihugu muri Guineya. Umuhuza wa Micro Jack, Umutwe w'ibanga na Insinga Igororotse bigira ingaruka nini.
Amasosiyete y’ubucukuzi bw’amabuye y’agaciro afitanye isano yabonye inkunga, Alcoa na sosiyete y’ingufu zisubiramo Norsk Hydro) byazamutseho 5%, hejuru y’aho byari biri mu mwaka wa 2008, naho Rusa izamukaho ibirenze 14% kugeza ku rwego rwo hejuru cyane.
Imyivumbagatanyo ya Guinee yazamuye igiciro cya bauxite.
Ku Cyumweru, igihugu cya Guinée cyo muri Afurika y'Iburengerazuba cyabaye. Nk'igihugu gifite ububiko bwa bauxite bunini ku isi, impinduka zacyo mu gihugu zatumye ibiciro bya bauxite bizamuka mu buryo butaziguye.
Ibiciro byo kohereza bauxite biva muri Guinee bijya mu Bushinwa byageze ku madolari 50.50 kuri toni kuva mu mezi 18 ku wa Mbere, byazamutseho 1% ugereranije no kuwa Gatanu, nk'uko byagaragajwe n'ibizamini by'ibyuma byo muri Aziya. Ibiciro byo kohereza bauxite byazamutseho 16% muri uyu mwaka. Ariko ukwiyongera kw'ibicuruzwa bya bauxite biterwa n'impungenge z'abaguzi ko Guinee yagira ingaruka ku bicuruzwa, ariko nta bacukuzi b'amabuye y'agaciro bavuze ko hari ikibazo cy'ihungabana ry'ibicuruzwa.
Bauxite ya LME yageze ku kigero cy’izamuka ry’ikirere mu myaka hafi icumi ishize ubwo aluminiyumu-futures yazamukaga kuwa mbere. Ingaruka zayo zageze no ku isoko ry’imigabane. Mu masoko mpuzamahanga, imigabane y’abakora aluminiyumu nka Norsk Hydro (Norveje) na Rusal (Rusal) -Get Report yazamutse, mu gihe ku masoko ya A-share, abakora aluminiyumu nka Chinalco nabo bazamutse.
Igisirikare cya Guinée cyasezeranye kutagira ingaruka ku mabuye y'agaciro yoherezwa mu mahanga
Urugendo rwa Gineya rwamaganywe n'ibihugu byinshi ku isi, byashyize igitutu gikomeye ku gisirikare cya Gineya. Ku wa mbere, umuyobozi w'igisirikare cya Gineya (Mamady Doumbouya) yasezeranye gushyiraho guverinoma y'inzibacyuho y'igihugu no kwemeza ko amabuye y'agaciro yoherezwa muri Gineya atazagabanuka.
Dumbuya yavuze ko umupaka wa Gineya wo mu mazi uzakomeza gufunguye kugira ngo ibirombe byoherejwe mu mahanga. Yanavuze ko itegeko ryo guhagarika akazi k’igihugu rihari ritareba inganda z’ubucukuzi bw’amabuye y’agaciro. "Ndahamya ko ubucuruzi n’abafatanyabikorwa banjye mu bukungu bazakomeza gukora nk’uko bisanzwe. Turasaba amasosiyete y’ubucukuzi gukomeza ibikorwa byayo."
Muri Gineya (impuguke mu nganda za bauxite Bob Adam) yagize ati: "Amahirwe yo kugira ingaruka zikomeye mu gihe gito ku byoherezwa mu mahanga ni make cyane. Nzeri yari ku rwego rwo hasi cyane mu gihe cyo kohereza bauxite mu mahanga."
Byongeye kandi, yavuze ko bauxite ari ingenzi mu bukungu bwa Guinée no mu isoko rikomeye ry’amafaranga y’amahanga mu gihugu, kandi ko "guverinoma iyo ari yo yose igiye kuza izashaka kwemeza ko ibi bitabangamira inyungu n’ishoramari mu gihe kizaza."
Bauxite ni isoko y'ikoreshwa ry'ubukungu rya Guinée
Bauxite ikoreshwa cyane cyane mu gukora alumina, alumina ikoreshwa cyane cyane mu gukuramo aluminiyumu, aluminiyumu ishobora gukoreshwa cyane mu modoka, telefoni zigezweho n'ingufu. Ibiciro bya aluminiyumu ku rwego mpuzamahanga byazamutse bigera hafi ku myaka icumi, bigera ku madolari 2,782 kuri toni mu bucuruzi bwa Aziya kuwa kabiri, kandi byakomeje kugaragara nk'ibitangaje.
Guinée ikungahaye ku mabuye y'agaciro, kandi ububiko bwa bauxite buri ku mwanya wa mbere kandi ni bwo bwa kabiri ku isi mu gukora cyane. Ubucuruzi bwa bauxite ni inkingi ikomeye y'ubukungu bwayo kandi ni isoko nyamukuru y'amafaranga y'amahanga yinjiza. Nk'uko Minisiteri y'Ubucukuzi bw'Amabuye y'Agaciro muri icyo gihugu ibivuga, toni miliyoni 88 za bauxite zakozwe mu mwaka wose ushize.
Imiterere myiza y'umutungo ikurura ishoramari ryinshi mu mahanga. Imibare y'itangazamakuru igaragaza ko kugeza mu gice cya mbere cya 2021, imishinga ya bauxite muri Guinée yari 35.91%, Alcoa yari 20.08%, Chinalco yari 15.15%, aluminiyumu yo muri UAE yari 13.57%, naho Rusa yari 6.75%.
Ikigaragara ni uko Gineya ari yo ishora imari nini mu Bushinwa mu gucuruza bauxite, aho ibicuruzwa byayo bijyanwa mu Bushinwa byageze ku mwanya wa mbere hamwe na Ositaraliya. Mu 2020, ibicuruzwa byose bya bauxite byatumijwe byari toni miliyoni 111.587, bikaba byari ukwiyongera guhoraho kwa 10.9% ugereranyije n'umwaka ushize, muri byo toni miliyoni 52.6701 zavuye muri Gineya, bingana na 47.2% by'ibicuruzwa byose bitumijwe, bikiyongeraho 18.51% ugereranyije n'umwaka ushize.
Ibikorwa by'ubucukuzi bw'amabuye y'agaciro muri Guinée ni imikorere isanzwe
Mu by’ukuri, igisirikare cya Guinée nta ngaruka cyigeze kigira ku bikorwa by’ubucukuzi bw’amabuye y’agaciro byo mu gace nka bauxite yo mu gace. Nk’uko Reuters ibitangaza, amasosiyete ashora imari muri Guinée mu guteza imbere imishinga y’ubucukuzi bw’amabuye y’agaciro yavuze ko ibikorwa by’ubucukuzi bw’amabuye y’agaciro bitagize ingaruka zikomeye.
Umuvugizi wa Chinalco yavuze ko ibikorwa bya bauxite by’iyi sosiyete muri Guinée bikora neza; umuvugizi wa sosiyete ya bauxite yo muri Guinée CBG yavuze kandi ko ibirombe byayo bitagizweho ingaruka n’ihungabana.
TOP International Holdings Ltd, ifite ibirombe bibiri bya bauxite muri Guinee, yavuze ko ubucuruzi bukomeje "ku buryo buto cyane" aho bauxite zombi zihagaze.
Isosiyete ikomeye mu bucukuzi bwa zahabu, AngloGold Ashanti (BA), yasohoye itangazo rivuga ko ikorera mu birombe bya zahabu bya Siguiri (Siguiri) muri Guinée. Iki kirombe cya zahabu cyakoze ibirombe 117.000 bya zahabu mu mezi atandatu ya mbere y'umwaka.
Rusa, ifite uruganda rukora bauxite eshatu n'urundi ruganda rutunganya alumina muri Guinée, ntiyahise isubiza niba ibikorwa by'ubucukuzi bw'amabuye y'agaciro byarahagaze, nubwo yavuze ko izatekereza gukura abakozi bose b'Uburusiya mu gihe ibibazo bya politiki by'imbere mu gihugu bikomeje kuba bibi. Ibirombe bya Chinalco muri Guinée bifite 42% by'ubushobozi bwose bwo gukora.
Ariko, kuri iyi nshuro bitera gushidikanya ku hazaza h'umushinga w'amabuye y'agaciro muri Guinée. Umushinga wa Simandu (Simandou) wo mu Bushinwa, umushinga munini w'amabuye y'agaciro utaratera imbere, ufitwe na Guinée, washoye imari nyinshi, aho Rio Tinto, Aluminium Industry of China, Yantai Port Group, China Baowu n'andi masosiyete yose yitabiriye ishoramari.
Andrew Gadd, umusesenguzi mukuru w’icyuma wa CRU Group (Andrew Gadd), yagize ati: "Byaragoye kubona inkunga ya Simandu, kandi kutamenya neza ibirimo gukorwa bizabangamira imihigo irimo."
Ingaruka ku isoko ry'ibikoresho fatizo byo mu gihugu ni izihe?
"Aluminium ni imwe mu nganda zifite icyizere gikomeye, yazamutseho hafi 50% muri uyu mwaka. Amakuru aturuka muri Guinée ashobora kongera icyuho mu bijyanye n'ibicuruzwa n'ibikenewe, bitewe n'ibibazo by'ibicuruzwa bikomeje kwiyongera, mu gihe habayeho ukwiyongera gukomeye kw'ibikenewe ku isi." Itsinda rya Saab Bank ryabivuze muri raporo yo kuwa mbere.
Imigabane ya aluminiyumu yo mu Bushinwa, ikigo cya leta kandi kimwe mu bihanga mu bucuruzi bwa aluminiyumu ku isi, yazamutse hafi 40% kuwa mbere, aho imigabane ya A yazamutse ku gipimo ntarengwa cya buri munsi.
Imigabane ya Hinalco yarangiye igeze kuri 5.5%, ikomeza gutera imbere mu gihe cy'amezi menshi ku izamuka ry'ibiciro by'ibicuruzwa bya aluminiyumu mu Bushinwa ndetse n'izamuka ry'ibiciro by'ibicuruzwa bya aluminiyumu ku isi. Kugeza ubu imigabane ya Chinalco iri mu 2021 kuko inyungu ziteganijwe kwiyongera nyuma y'uko Ubushinwa bubaye ikigo cy'ubucuruzi cya aluminiyumu mu 2020.
Ishyirahamwe ry’inganda z’ibyuma bitagira feri mu Bushinwa ryatangaje kuwa mbere ko ibiciro bya aluminiyumu byazamutse cyane bitewe n’ibibazo by’ingufu kuva mu mezi make ashize. Mu gice cya mbere cya 2021, umusaruro w’ibikomoka kuri aluminiyumu mu Bushinwa n’ibikomoka ku bicuruzwa byinjijwe mu mahanga byari toni miliyoni 22.89 na toni 930.000, mu gihe umusaruro w’ibikomoka kuri aluminiyumu n’ibikomoka ku bicuruzwa byinjijwe mu mahanga byiyongereyeho 9.5% ugereranyije n’umwaka ushize na 167.6%.
Amasezerano ya aluminiyumu ya buri munsi ya Shanghai Futures Exchange ku wa mbere yari yuan 21,075 kuri toni, yagabanutseho 1.5% ugereranyije n'igiciro cyayo cya nyuma, nk'uko ishyirahamwe ryabitangaje. Aya masezerano yabaye menshi cyane kuva mu byumweru bike bishize, agera ku madolari 21,495 kuri toni ku ya 30 Kanama.
Bloomberg (Bloomberg) ivuga ko imbogamizi zikomeje kwiyongera ku musaruro wa aluminiyumu mu kigo cya Guangxi Aluminum Center bitewe n’igabanuka ry’ingufu z’igihembwe byatumye umusaruro ugabanuka.
Wei Lai (TF Futures Co.) -Get Report yagize ati: "Urukurikirane rw'ingamba za vuba aha z'Ubushinwa zagize ingaruka ku musaruro wa aluminiyumu no kuzamura ibiciro, biteganijwe ko igipimo cy'ikoreshwa ry'amashanyarazi n'ingamba zijyanye nabyo bizakomeza kugeza mu mpera z'umwaka. Kubwibyo, igihe cyose icyifuzo n'itangwa rya aluminiyumu bishobora gukomeza, icyo gihe imiterere ya aluminiyumu ku isoko iba ihamye, kandi igiciro cya aluminiyumu kiragoye kugabanuka."
Ibigo byinshi bikomeje kubona ibiciro bya aluminiyumu mu gihe gito bizamuka cyane. Goldman Sachs yiteze ko izamuka ry’agateganyo rya aluminiyumu rizakomeza kwiyongera mu gihe icyerekezo cy’itangwa ry’ibicuruzwa ku isi gishobora kwiyongera. Ikigo cya Wall Street cyazamuye intego yacyo y’ibiciro bya aluminiyumu igera ku madolari 3,200 kuri toni mu mezi 12 ari imbere.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Nzeri-09-2021