Varimi vemari vari kunetsekana nezvemamiriro ezvinhu aripo sezvo mitengo yealuminium yepasi rose yakakwira zvakanyanya kubva muna 2011 musi wa6 Gunyana, zvichikonzerwa nekusagadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika muGuinea. Chinongedzo cheMicro Jack, Musoro wepini uye Tambo Yakatsetseka zvine simba guru.
Makambani emigodhi ane hukama neizvi akawana mari, Alcoa nekambani yesimba rinodzokororwa reNorsk Hydro) yakakwira ne5%, kupfuura yakakwira muna 2008, uye Rusa yakakwira neanopfuura 14% kusvika pakakwirira zvikuru.
Kupandukira kweGuinea kwawedzera mutengo we bauxite.
NeSvondo, nyika yeWest Africa yeGuinea yakaitika. Senyika ine nzvimbo dzakawanda dzekuchengetedza bauxite pasi rose, shanduko dzayo dzemuno dzakakonzera kukwira kwemitengo yebauxite.
Mitengo yekutumirwa kwebauxite kubva kuGuinea kuenda kuChina yakakwira zvishoma ne$50.50 patani kubva pamwedzi gumi nemisere neMuvhuro, yakakwira ne1% kubva neChishanu, zvichienderana nefungidziro dzesimbi dzeAsia. Mitengo yekutumirwa kwebauxite yakakwira ne16% gore rino. Asi kukwira kwekutumirwa kwebauxite kunobva pakunetseka kwevatengi kuti Guinea ichakanganisa kuwanikwa kwemafuta, asi hapana mugodhi akataura nezvekukanganiswa kwemafuta.
LME bauxite yakakwira zvakanyanya kwemakore anoda kusvika gumi apo aruminiyamu-futures yakakwira neMuvhuro. Mhedzisiro iyi yakasvikawo kumusika wemasheya. Mumisika yepasi rose, migove yevagadziri vearuminiyamu vakaita seNorsk Hydro (Norwegian) naRusal (Rusal) -Get Report yakakwira, nepo mumisika yeA-share, vagadziri vearuminiyamu vakaita seChinalco vakawedzerawo.
Mauto eGuinea akavimbisa kuti haazokanganisi kutengeswa kwezvicherwa kunze kwenyika
Kushanya kweGuinea kwashorwa nenyika dzakawanda pasi rose, izvo zvakaisa kumanikidzwa kukuru kumauto eGuinea. NeMuvhuro, mutungamiri wemauto eGuinea (Mamady Doumbouya) akavimbisa hurumende yenyika yekuchinja uye vimbiso yekuti zvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika muGuinea hazvizodzikiswe.
Dumbuya akati muganhu wegungwa weGuinea ucharamba wakavhurika kuitira kuti migodhi ikwanise kutengeswa kunze kwenyika. Akatiwo mutemo wemazuva ano wekudzivirira kufamba kwemvura haushande kuindasitiri yemigodhi. "Ndinogona kuvimbisa vandinoshanda navo mubhizinesi nehupfumi kuti mabasa emigodhi muGuinea acharamba achienderera mberi sezvakajairika. Tinokumbira makambani emigodhi kuti arambe achiita mabasa awo."
Guinea (nyanzvi yeindasitiri yebauxite Bob Adam) yakati: "Mukana wekuti zvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika zvikanganise kwenguva pfupi wakaderera. Gunyana rave panguva yakaderera yekutengeswa kwebauxite kunze kwenyika."
Pamusoro pezvo, akataura kuti bauxite inokosha kuhupfumi hweGuinea uye ndiyo nzira huru yekuwana mari yekunze munyika, uye kuti "chero hurumende iri kuuya ichada kuona kuti izvi hazviise pangozi mari inowanikwa nekudyara mune ramangwana."
Bauxite inoshandiswa zvakanyanya muGuinea
Bauxite inonyanya kushandiswa mukugadzira alumina, alumina inonyanya kushandiswa kuburitsa aruminiyamu, aruminiyamu inogona kushandiswa zvakanyanya mumotokari, mafoni emagetsi uye masisitimu emagetsi. Mitengo yearuminiyamu yepasi rose yakakwira kusvika pamadhora zviuru zviviri nemazana manomwe nemakumi masere nemaviri ($2,782) patani mukutengeserana kweAsia neChipiri, uye yakaramba ichishamisika zvikuru.
Guinea ine zvicherwa zvakawanda, uye nzvimbo dzayo dzekuchengetedza bauxite dziri pamberi uye ndidzo dziri padanho rechipiri pakukura kwehupfumi hwenyika. Bhizinesi re bauxite ndiro musimboti mukuru wehupfumi hwayo uye ndiro sosi huru yekuwana mari yekunze. Sekureva kweBazi reMigodhi renyika, matani emamiriyoni makumi masere nemasere e bauxite akagadzirwa mugore rapfuura.
Mamiriro akanaka ezviwanikwa anokwezvawo mari yakawanda inodyarwa kunze kwenyika. Nhamba dzezvenhau dzinoratidza kuti kubva muhafu yekutanga ya2021, mapurojekiti ebauxite muGuinea aive ne35.91%, Alcoa yaive ne20.08%, Chinalco ye15.15%, UAE aruminiyamu yaive ne13.57%, uye Rusa yaive ne6.75%.
Zvinoshamisa kuti Guinea ndiyo inonyanya kutengesa bauxite muChina, sezvo zvinhu zvayo zvinotengeswa kuChina zvakada kufanana neAustralia. Muna 2020, huwandu hwese hwezvinhu zvinotengeswa bauxite hwaive matani 111.587 miriyoni, kuwedzera kwakasimba kwe10.9% pagore, uye matani 52.6701 miriyoni kubva kuGuinea, zvichiita 47.2% yezvese zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, kuwedzera kwe18.51% pagore.
Mabasa ekuchera migodhi muGuinea ari kushanda zvakanyanya
Kutaura zvazviri, mauto eGuinea haana kukanganisa zvakananga mabasa emigodhi emuno akadai sebauxite yemuno. Sekureva kweReuters, makambani ari kuisa mari muGuinea pari zvino kuti agadzire mapurojekiti emigodhi akati mabasa emigodhi haana kunyanya kukanganiswa.
Mutauriri weChinalco akati mashandiro ekambani iyi muGuinea ari kushanda zvakajairika; mutauriri wekambani yeGuinea bauxite CBG akatiwo migodhi yayo haina kukanganiswa nemhirizhonga iri kuitika.
TOP International Holdings Ltd, ine migodhi miviri yebauxite muGuinea, yakati bhizinesi riri kuenderera mberi "nekukanganiswa kushoma" nekuchengetedza kwese kwese kwebauxite.
Kambani yekuchera goridhe yeAngloGold Ashanti (BA) yakaburitsa gwaro ichiti inoshanda zvakanaka mumugodhi wegoridhe weSiguiri (Siguiri) muGuinea. Mugodhi wegoridhe uyu wakaburitsa maounces egoridhe zviuru zana negumi nenomwe (117,000 ounces) mumwedzi mitanhatu yekutanga yegore.
Rusa, ine nzvimbo nhatu dzekuchenesa bauxite neimwe yealumina muGuinea, haina kupindura nekukasika kana mabasa ekuchera migodhi akamiswa, kunyange hazvo yakati yaizofunga zvekubvisa vashandi vese vekuRussia kana mamiriro ayo ezvematongerwo enyika akaramba achiipa. Migodhi yeChinalco muGuinea ine 42% yehuwandu hwese hwekugadzira.
Zvisinei, panguva ino zvinomutsa kusahadzika pamusoro peramangwana reprojekti yesimbi yeGuinea. Simandu Project (Simandou) yeChina, purojekiti huru yesimbi isina kugadzirwa, iri yeGuinea, yakaisa mari yakawanda, pamwe neRio Tinto, Aluminum Industry yeChina, Yantai Port Group, China Baowu nedzimwe makambani ese akabatanidzwa mukudyara mari.
Andrew Gadd, nyanzvi yezvesimbi yeCRU Group (Andrew Gadd), akati, "Zvave zvakaoma kuwana mari yeSimandu, uye kusava nechokwadi pamusoro pezviri kuitika pari zvino kuchapikisa zvipikirwa zvirimo."
Chii chiri kukanganisa musika wezvinhu zvekushandisa pamba?
"Aluminium ndeimwe yesimbi dzeindasitiri dzine tariro huru, yakakwira ne50% gore rino. Nhau dzinobva kuGuinea dzinogona kuwedzera musiyano wekuwanikwa kwezvinhu nezvinodiwa, zvichikonzerwa nekukwira kwenjodzi dzekuwanikwa kwezvinhu, pakati pekukura kwakasimba kwekudiwa kwezvinhu pasi rose." Chikwata cheSaab Bank chakadaro mumushumo neMuvhuro.
Migove yearuminiyamu yekuChina, kambani yehurumende uye imwe yemakambani makuru ekugadzira aruminiyamu pasi rose, yakakwira ne40% neMuvhuro, uye migove yeA yakakwira nepamuganho wezuva nezuva.
Migove yeHinalco yakaguma ne5.5%, zvichiramba zvichienderera mberi nekuwedzera kwemwedzi yakawanda mukudiwa kuri kuwedzera muChina uye mitengo yepamusoro yealuminium pasi rose. Migove yeChinalco iri kusvika pari zvino muna 2021 sezvo purofiti inotarisirwa kuwedzera mushure mekunge China yava mutengesi wearuminiyamu muna 2020.
Mitengo yearuminiyamu yakakwira zvakanyanya nekuda kwekunetseka kwekuwanikwa kwezvinhu kubva mumwedzi mishoma yapfuura, sangano reChina Nonferrous Metals Industry Association rakataura neMuvhuro. Muhafu yekutanga yegore ra2021, kugadzirwa kwearuminiyamu isina kugadzirwa nekupinzwa kwezvinhu muChina kwaive matani mamiriyoni 22.89 uye matani zviuru mazana mapfumbamwe nemakumi matatu, zvichiteerana, ukuwo kugadzirwa kwearuminiyamu nekupinzwa kwezvinhu muChina kwakawedzera ne9.5% gore rega rega uye 167.6% zvichiteerana.
Sangano iri rakati chibvumirano chezuva nezuva cheShanghai Futures Exchange chealuminium chaive 21,075 yuan patani, chakaderera ne1.5% kubva pamutengo waro wekupedzisira wekare. Chibvumirano ichi chave chakakwira zvakanyanya kubva mumavhiki mashoma apfuura, kusvika pamadhora zviuru makumi maviri nerimwe nemazana mana nemakumi mapfumbamwe nemashanu patani musi wa30 Nyamavhuvhu.
Bloomberg (Bloomberg) inotaura kuti matambudziko ari kuwedzera pakugadzirwa kwearuminiyamu isina kugadzirwa paGuangxi Aluminum Center akasangana nematambudziko sezvo kusimba kwemagetsi emwaka zvichikonzera kudzikira kwekugadzirwa.
Wei Lai (TF Futures Co.) -Get Report yakati: "Nhevedzano yemitemo yemazuva ano yeChina yakakanganisa kugadzirwa kwearuminiyamu uye mitengo yakakwira, vachitarisira kuti muganhu wekushandiswa kwesimba remagetsi pamwe nemitemo yakafanana nayo icharamba iripo kusvika pakupera kwegore. Saka, chero bedzi kudiwa kwearuminiyamu nekuwanikwa kwayo kuchigona kuramba kuripo, saka mamiriro earuminiyamu mumusika haana kuoma, uye mutengo wearuminiyamu unonetsa kudzokera shure."
Masangano mazhinji ari kuramba achiona mitengo yearuminiyamu yenguva pfupi ichikwira zvakanyanya. Goldman Sachs anotarisira kuwedzera kuwedzera kwekuwedzera kwearuminiyamu sezvo tarisiro yekuwanikwa kwearuminiyamu pasi rose inogona kuipa. Sangano reWall Street rakasimudza chinangwa charo chemutengo wearuminiyamu kusvika pamadhora zviuru zvitatu nemazana maviri patani kwemwedzi gumi nemiviri inotevera.
Nguva yekutumira: Gunyana-09-2021