Raws li qhov kev tawm tsam tshiab ntawm kev puas tsuaj ntawm Tebchaws Meskas kev lag luam txuas ntxiv mus, qee cov nqi khoom lag luam txawm poob qis heev, tus nqi nce nqi yuav poob ntxiv rau xyoo 2024, xav tias txog thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo Fed tau teeb tsa 2% lub hom phiaj nce nqi, cov ntaub ntawv CPI tso tawm rau hnub Thursday yuav qhia txog "kev tawm tsam kev nce nqi". Cov Thaiv Kawg, Cov Khoom Txuas Centronic thiab Cov Lus Qhia Txog Tsheb Kauj Vab yuav tsum tau sau tseg.
Qhov kev poob qis no yuav ua rau Fed nyob ruaj khov ntawm nws txoj kev, nrog rau kev ua lag luam xav tias yuav pib txo nws cov nqi thawj zaug thaum Lub Peb Hlis.
Tab sis rau Thawj Tswj Hwm Joe Biden, nws yuav nyuaj rau nws kom tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev nom kev tswv hauv nws txoj kev xaiv tsa, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog thaum kev lag luam qeeb lossis kev ua haujlwm poob qis.
Daim ntawv qhia txog Tus Nqi Khoom Siv (CPI) rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis, uas tau tshaj tawm los ntawm Lub Chaw Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Ua Haujlwm (Bureau of Labor Statistics) rau hnub Thursday, yuav ua rau tib neeg xav tias muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm qhov sib txawv "kev tiv thaiv kev nce nqi" hauv cov hlis tom ntej.
Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau tias cov nqi khoom lag luam hauv Asmeskas feem ntau tsis nce ntxiv lawm, thiab feem ntau cov khoom lag luam, xws li cov nqi tsheb, tau poob qis.
Kev nce nqi hauv Asmeskas tab tom poob qis los ntawm qhov siab tshaj plaws thaum muaj kev sib kis thoob ntiaj teb.
Muaj ob lo lus zoo sib xws hauv lo lus kev lag luam —— "deflation" thiab "anti-inflation", thiab Tebchaws Meskas tej zaum yuav ntsib "anti-inflation" (disinflation).
Hauv kev lag luam uas muaj kev cuam tshuam los ntawm kev nce nqi, cov nqi tseem nce siab.
Txawm li cas los xij, lawv loj hlob qeeb dua li yav dhau los.
Kev nce nqi tseem zoo, tab sis nyob rau theem qis.
Piv txwv li, Tus Nqi Khoom Siv (CPI) yog qhov qhia txog kev nce nqi tseem ceeb los taug qab cov nqi nruab nrab ntawm cov khoom siv thiab cov kev pabcuam, thiab US CPI tau nce 3.1% thaum Lub Kaum Ib Hlis los ntawm ib xyoos dhau los, poob qis los ntawm qhov siab tshaj plaws ntawm 9.1% thaum muaj kev sib kis thoob plaws lub Rau Hli 2022.
Sarah House, tus kws tshuaj xyuas kev lag luam laus ntawm Wells Fargo, tau hais tias: "Kev tiv thaiv kev nce nqi yog qhov peb xav pom tam sim no. Kev tiv thaiv kev nce nqi yog qhov tshwm sim zoo dua li kev poob nqi."
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Tebchaws Asmeskas tus CPI tseem ceeb yuav rov qab mus rau "3 lub sijhawm" Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas kev lag luam feem ntau xav tias CPI kev loj hlob yuav rov qab los ntawm 3.1% mus rau 3.3% thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis, thaum CPI kev loj hlob tseem ceeb, tsis suav nrog zaub mov thiab zog, yuav poob rau 3.8% los ntawm 4%.
Yog tias qhov kev loj hlob ntawm CPI txhua xyoo poob qis 4% thawj zaug txij li lub Tsib Hlis 2021, nws tuaj yeem ua rau Fed ntseeg siab dua tias kev nce nqi yuav rov qab mus rau nws lub hom phiaj 2% los ntawm xyoo 2024, yog li ua kom muaj kev cia siab ntawm kev txiav tus nqi hauv lub Peb Hlis.
Cov ntaub ntawv yuav tsis muaj zog heev rau xyoo no.
Tej zaum koj tseem yuav pom kev txhim kho hauv kev muab khoom uas ua rau tus nqi qis dua, "said Alan Detmeister, tus kws tshawb fawb txog kev lag luam ntawm UBS Investment Bank (UBS Investment Bank).
"Peb xav tias kev loj hlob yuav qeeb qeeb sai sai hauv lub sijhawm luv luv, tab sis tsis txhob poob rau hauv kev lag luam poob qis."
Tau ob peb lub hlis dhau los no, kev nce nqi tau poob qis sai dua li Wall Street thiab Fed cov kws tshawb fawb txog kev lag luam tau xav tseg, ua rau muaj kev cia siab tias Fed yuav txo nws tus nqi paj laum xyoo no.
Qhov kev kwv yees nruab nrab los ntawm FOMC dot plot tshiab qhia tau hais tias Fed yuav txo tus nqi tsawg kawg peb zaug los ntawm 25 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus hauv xyoo 2024, ntau dua li cov tub ceev xwm Fed xav tau hauv lub Cuaj Hli.
Txawm li cas los xij, kev cia siab ntawm kev txo tus nqi tau ua rau muaj kev kub ntxhov ntau dua, nrog rau kev lag luam yav tom ntej ntawm tus nqi paj laum ib zaug twv tias Fed yuav txo tus nqi ntau dua 150 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus hauv xyoo 2024, poob qis mus rau kwv yees li 120 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus tom qab raug cuam tshuam los ntawm ntau dua li qhov xav tau ntawm cov ntaub ntawv tsis yog kev ua liaj ua teb.
Raws li CME Fed Watch Tool, cov lag luam yav tom ntej ntawm tus nqi paj laum tam sim no xav tias yuav muaj 60% feem pua ntawm kev txo tus nqi thawj zaug hauv lub Peb Hlis, tsawg dua li qhov yuav luag 90% feem pua ntawm cov lus tawm tswv yim los ntawm cov tub ceev xwm Fed thiab cov feeb.
Qhov kev poob qis ntawm kev nce nqi no feem ntau yog vim muaj kev poob qis ntawm cov nqi khoom tseem ceeb.
Cov nqi khoom lag luam tseem ceeb hauv Tebchaws Meskas tau poob qis rau rau lub hlis sib law liag txog rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2023.
Qhov ntawd ua raws li kev nce ntxiv ntawm kev thov ntawm cov neeg siv khoom thiab kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov khoom xa tuaj hauv cov nqi khoom xws li tsheb thiab khaub ncaws txij lub Ob Hlis 2020 txog lub Tsib Hlis 2023.
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv ntawm Fed lub rooj sib tham thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis uas tau tshaj tawm rau Lub Ib Hlis 3, cov thawj coj ntawm Fed tau tham txog seb puas yuav txhim kho cov khoom siv ntawm lawv lub rooj sib tham txoj cai lub hli tas los uas qhov sib txawv no tuaj yeem txuas ntxiv mus ua kom tus nqi nce siab.
Cov kws tshawb fawb txog kev lag luam nug seb puas muaj chaw ntxiv rau kev txhim kho kev muab khoom.
"Qhov no yog qhov ua rau muaj kev tsis paub tseeb loj heev," Sarah House, tus kws tshawb fawb laus ntawm Wells Fargo & Co. hais.
"Kev nce nqi thaum xub thawj nce sai dua li cov qauv thiab kev paub dhau los kwv yees, thiab tam sim no tej zaum yuav poob sai dua li yav dhau los."
Seb qhov kev nce nqi vaj tse puas tuaj yeem nkag mus rau qhov kev poob qis sai yog qhov tseem ceeb heev Tab sis lwm yam ntawm cov ntsuas tus nqi ntawm cov neeg siv khoom, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv cov kev pabcuam, tseem nce siab.
Cov kws tshawb fawb txog kev lag luam yuav saib xyuas ze rau qhov nce nqi vaj tse, uas yog qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws ntawm CPI, suav txog yuav luag ib feem peb ntawm tag nrho CPI, thiab cov kws tshawb fawb txog kev lag luam xav tias nws yuav siv sijhawm ntev dua los txo qis.
Hauv 12 lub hlis txog rau lub Peb Hlis 2023, kev nce nqi vaj tse tau nce siab tshaj plaws ntawm 8.2%, siab dua li qub ntawm 3% txog 3.5% hauv xyoo ua ntej COVID-19.
Tab sis kev nce nqi vaj tse tau poob qis txij thaum ntawd los, poob mus txog li 6.5% txog rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis, thiab cov kws tshawb fawb feem ntau xav tias nws yuav txuas ntxiv mus.
Tiam sis kev nce qib qeeb heev, vim tias vaj tse yog ib qho cim qhia tias tsis tau qhia tag nrho txog kev qeeb ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm kev xauj tsev hauv xyoo 2023.
Qhov no yog ib feem vim tias tib neeg tsuas pom kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi xauj tsev thaum daim ntawv xauj tsev raug rov ua dua tshiab lossis tsiv mus rau qhov chaw tshiab.
"Txog rau ib nrab xyoo tom ntej no, peb yuav tsum pom cov nqi xauj tsev txhua hli ze heev rau cov uas tau pom ua ntej muaj kev sib kis COVID-19," Detmeister los ntawm UBS hais.
Raws li kev tshawb fawb ntawm Bloomberg uas tau ua thaum nruab nrab lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2023, cov kws tshawb fawb txog kev lag luam xav tias qhov ——, uas yog tus ntsuas kev nce nqi tseem ceeb, yuav poob mus rau 2.2% thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo, pab los ntawm kev poob nqi vaj tse sai dua hauv xyoo 2023.
Qhov no ze rau cov qauv ua ntej muaj kev sib kis thoob ntiaj teb.
Kev soj ntsuam ntawm cov neeg siv khoom tau qhia txog kev ntseeg siab zoo dua rau qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev nce nqi —— Txawm hais tias qhov no yuav yog ib feem ntawm kev poob qis ntawm tus nqi roj av hauv peb lub hlis kawg ntawm lub xyoo.
Tus nqi khoom noj tseem nce ntxiv los ntawm ib xyoos dhau los, tab sis tsis nce sai li yav dhau los.
Kev nce nqi qis nws tus kheej yuav tsum pab Thawj Tswj Hwm Joe Biden yeej kev xaiv tsa dua ua ntej kev xaiv tsa lub Kaum Ib Hlis vim tias cov neeg pov npav tau hais tias cov nqi thiab kev lag luam yog lawv cov yam tseem ceeb hauv kev xaiv tsa.
Tiam sis kev ua lag luam tsis muaj zog —— Ntau tus kws kwv yees, suav nrog UBS (UBS) thiab Wells Fargo (Wells Fargo), xav tias kev ua lag luam yuav tsis muaj zog xyoo no vim tias cov paj laum siab dua ua rau kev loj hlob thiab kev ntiav neeg ua haujlwm tsis zoo, thaum kev ua lag luam tsis muaj zog tuaj yeem ua rau cov txiaj ntsig ntawm kev qeeb qeeb ntawm kev nce nqi rau tsoomfwv tam sim no puas tsuaj.
Sarah House, tus kws tshawb fawb txog kev lag luam laus ntawm Wells Fargo, tau hais tias: "Yog tias qhov kev qeeb no yog - ntawm tus nqi ntawm kev thov tsis muaj zog thiab qhov no cuam tshuam nrog kev ua lag luam haujlwm, nws yuav yog qhov cuam tshuam rau Biden tsoomfwv."
"" Qhov no yuav yog kev sib xyaw ntawm kev nce nqi thiab kev loj hlob ntawm kev ua lag luam, thiab kev coj ntawm kev ntseeg siab ntawm cov neeg siv khoom.
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Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Lub Ib Hlis-23-2024