Njengoko ukuqhambuka okutsha kokutshatyalaliswa koqoqosho lwaseMelika kuqhubeka, amanye amaxabiso eemveliso ehla kakhulu, izinga lokunyuka kwamaxabiso liza kwehla ngakumbi ngo-2024, kulindeleke ukuba ekupheleni konyaka umgomo wokunyuka kwamaxabiso we-fed oqinisiweyo we-2%, idatha ye-CPI ekhutshwe ngoLwesine inokubonisa "umgaqo wokulwa nokunyuka kwamaxabiso" ozayo. Iibhloko zeTerminal, IziXhobo zeCentronic kwaye Iibhayisekile ezibonisa ii-Spoke Reflectors kufuneka kuqatshelwe.
Olu hlobo lokuhla kwexabiso lunokubangela ukuba iFed ihlale iqinile kwindlela yayo, kulindeleke ukuba imakethi iqale ukunciphisa amaxabiso ayo okokuqala kwangethuba ngoMatshi.
Kodwa kwimeko kaMongameli uJoe Biden, kusenokuba nzima kuye ukusebenzisa ithuba lezopolitiko kwiphulo lakhe lonyulo, ingakumbi njengoko uqoqosho luphela lucotha okanye imisebenzi iyehla.
Ingxelo ye-Consumer Price Index (CPI) kaDisemba, ekhutshwe yi-Bureau of Labor Statistics (i-Bureau of Labor Statistics) ngoLwesine, ingenza abantu bazive impembelelo yendlela "yokulwa nokunyuka kwamaxabiso" kwiinyanga ezizayo.
Izibalo zibonisa ukuba amaxabiso eempahla zaseMelika ngokubanzi ayekile ukunyuka, kwaye uninzi lweempahla, ezifana namaxabiso eemoto, ziye zaya kwindawo ehlayo.
Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso emali eMelika kuyehla ukusuka kwinqanaba eliphezulu ngexesha lobhubhane.
Kukho amagama amabini afanayo kwigama lezoqoqosho —— elithi “deflation” kunye nelithi “anti-inflation”, kwaye i-US kusenokwenzeka ukuba ijongene “ne-anti-inflation” (ukunciphisa i-inflation).
Kwimeko yezoqoqosho ejongene nokunganyuki kwamaxabiso, amaxabiso asaqhubeka enyuka.
Nangona kunjalo, zikhula ngesantya esiphantsi kunangaphambili.
Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuhlala kulungile, kodwa kumanqanaba aphantsi.
Umzekelo, iConsumer Price Index (CPI) sisalathisi esibalulekileyo sokunyuka kwamaxabiso ukulandelela amaxabiso aphakathi ebhaskithi yeempahla kunye neenkonzo zabathengi, kwaye i-US CPI inyuke nge-3.1% ngoNovemba ukusuka kunyaka ophelileyo, yehla kakhulu ukusuka kwincopho ye-9.1% ngexesha lobhubhane ngoJuni ka-2022.
USarah House, ingcali kwezoqoqosho eWells Fargo, uthe: "Ukuchasana nokunyuka kwamaxabiso yinto esifuna ukuyibona okwangoku. Ukuchasana nokunyuka kwamaxabiso sisiphumo esingcono kunokwehla kwamaxabiso."
"
I-CPI engundoqo yase-US kulindeleke ukuba ibuyele "kwixesha lesi-3". Iingcali zezoqoqosho zilindele ngokubanzi ukuba ukukhula kwe-CPI kubuye ukusuka kwi-3.1% ukuya kwi-3.3% ngoDisemba, ngelixa ukukhula kwe-CPI engundoqo, ngaphandle kokutya namandla, kulindeleke ukuba kwehle ukuya kwi-3.8% ukusuka kwi-4%.
Ukuba ukukhula kwe-CPI engundoqo unyaka nonyaka kudlula kwi-4% okokuqala ukusukela ngoMeyi ka-2021, kunokubangela i-Fed ukuba iqiniseke ngakumbi ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuya kubuyela kwi-2% ekujoliswe kuyo ngo-2024, ngaloo ndlela kuhlanganiswe ulindelo lokuncitshiswa kwamanani ngoMatshi.
"Idatha isenokuba buthathaka kakhulu kulo nyaka."
Usenokubona ukuphucuka kokunikezelwa kwempahla okunyusa amaxabiso, "utshilo u-Alan Detmeister, ingcali yezoqoqosho kwi-UBS Investment Bank (UBS Investment Bank).
"Silindele ukuba ukukhula kunciphe kakhulu kwixesha elifutshane, kodwa kungabi kukudodobala koqoqosho."
Kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuye kwehla ngokukhawuleza kunokuba bekulindelwe yiWall Street kunye neengcali zezoqoqosho zeFed, nto leyo ekhokelele kulindelo olukhulu lokuba iFed iza kunciphisa kakhulu izinga layo lenzala kulo nyaka.
Uqikelelo oluphakathi oluvela kwi-FOMC dot plot yamva nje lubonisa ukuba i-Fed isenokunciphisa amaxabiso ubuncinane kathathu ngamanqaku angama-25 ngo-2024, nto leyo enobundlongondlongo ngakumbi kunokuba amagosa e-Fed ayelindele ngoSeptemba.
Nangona kunjalo, ulindelo lokuncitshiswa kwamaxabiso beluqatha ngakumbi, iimarike zenzala yexesha elizayo zazibheja ukuba iFed iza kunciphisa amaxabiso ngamanqaku asisiseko angaphezu kwe-150 ngo-2024, yehle iye kuma-120 amanqaku asisiseko emva kokuba ixinzelelwe yidatha engaphezulu kakhulu kunokuba bekulindelwe.
Ngokutsho kweCME Fed Watch Tool, iimarike zexesha elizayo zenzala ngoku zilindele ithuba lama-60% lokuncitshiswa kwexabiso lokuqala ngoMatshi, elingaphantsi kakhulu kunethuba eliphantse libe ngama-90% lamagqabaza avela kumagosa eFed kunye nemizuzu.
Oku kwehla okumangalisayo kokunyuka kwamaxabiso kungenxa yokuhla okukhulu kwamaxabiso eemveliso eziphambili.
Amaxabiso eemveliso eziphambili zaseMelika ehlile kangangeenyanga ezintandathu zilandelelana ukuya kutsho ngoNovemba 2023.
Oko kulandela ukunyuka kwemfuno yabathengi kunye nokuphazamiseka kwecandelo lokubonelela ngempahla kumaxabiso eempahla ezifana neemoto kunye neempahla ukususela ngoFebruwari 2020 ukuya kuMeyi 2023.
Ngokwemizuzu yentlanganiso yeFed kaDisemba eyakhutshwa nge-3 kaJanuwari, amagosa eFed axoxe ngokuba ukuphuculwa kwekhonkco lokubonelela ngeenkonzo kwintlanganiso yabo yomgaqo-nkqubo kwinyanga ephelileyo kungaqhubeka na ukunciphisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Iingcali zezoqoqosho ziyabuza ukuba ingaba kukho indawo engaphezulu yokuphucula ukubonelela ngeenkonzo.
"Lo ngumthombo omkhulu wokungaqiniseki," utshilo uSarah House, ingcali yezoqoqosho ephezulu eWells Fargo & Co.).
"Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ekuqaleni kwenyuka ngokukhawuleza kunokuba iimodeli kunye namava angaphambili ayeqikelele, kwaye ngoku kusenokwehla ngokukhawuleza kunangaphambili."
"Ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ezindlu kungangena kwisimo sokwehla ngokukhawuleza kubalulekile, kodwa ezinye izinto ezikwinqanaba lomlinganiselo wamaxabiso abathengi, ingakumbi kwicandelo leenkonzo, zisaqhubeka nokunyuka."
Iingcali zezoqoqosho ziza kujonga ngokusondeleyo ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ezindlu, eyona nto iphambili kwi-CPI, emalunga nesinye kwisithathu se-CPI iyonke, kwaye iingcali zezoqoqosho zilindele ukuba kungathatha ixesha elide ukuncipha.
Kwiinyanga ezili-12 ukuya kutsho ngoMatshi 2023, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ezindlu kufikelele kwi-8.2%, ngaphezulu kakhulu komlinganiselo oqhelekileyo we-3% ukuya kwi-3.5% kwiminyaka engaphambi kwe-COVID-19.
Kodwa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ezindlu kuye kwehla ukusukela ngoko, kwehla ukuya kuthi ga kwi-6.5% ukuya kutsho ngoNovemba, kwaye iingcali zezoqoqosho ngokubanzi zilindele ukuba kuqhubeke.
Kodwa inkqubela phambili icotha kakhulu, kuba izindlu zisisalathisi esisezantsi esingabonisanga ngokupheleleyo ukucotha kokukhula kwerenti ngo-2023.
Oku kungenxa yokuba abantu babona utshintsho lwerenti kuphela xa isivumelwano sokuqeshisa sivuselelwa okanye sithuthelwa kwindawo entsha.
“Kwisiqingatha sesibini salo nyaka, kufuneka sibone iirenti zenyanga zisondele kakhulu kwezo zibonwe ngaphambi kokuqhambuka kwe-COVID-19,” utshilo uDetmeister wase-UBS.
Ngokutsho kophando lweBloomberg olwenziwe phakathi kuDisemba ka-2023, iingcali zezoqoqosho zilindele ukuba i-——, isalathisi esiphambili sokunyuka kwamaxabiso, sehle siye kwi-2.2% ekupheleni konyaka, sincediswe kukwehla ngokukhawuleza kokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezindlu ngo-2023.
Oku kusondele kakhulu kwiindlela zangaphambi kobhubhane.
Uphando lwabathengi lubonise ukuzithemba okuphuculweyo kwimbono yokunyuka kwamaxabiso —— Nangona oku kusenokuba kunxulumene nokuhla kwamaxabiso epetroli kwikota yokugqibela yonyaka.
Amaxabiso okutya asanyuka ukusuka kunyaka ophelileyo, kodwa akakhawulezi njengoko ayenjalo.
Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuphantsi ngokwako kufanele kuncede uMongameli uJoe Biden ukuba aphumelele unyulo kwakhona ngaphambi konyulo lukaNovemba kuba abavoti bakhankanye amaxabiso kunye noqoqosho njengezona zinto ziphambili kuphando.
Kodwa imakethi yemisebenzi ebuthathaka —— Uninzi lwababikezeli bezinto eziza kwenzeka, kuquka i-UBS (UBS) kunye ne-Wells Fargo (Wells Fargo), balindele ukuba imakethi yemisebenzi ibe buthathaka kulo nyaka njengoko amazinga enzala aphezulu ephazamisa ukukhula nokuqeshwa, ngelixa imakethi yemisebenzi ebuthathaka inokuphazamisa iingenelo zezopolitiko zokunciphisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kurhulumente wangoku.
USarah House, ingcali yezoqoqosho eWells Fargo, uthe: "Ukuba olu nciphiso lubangela ukuba imfuno inciphe kwaye oku kunxulumene nemarike yemisebenzi, kunokuba yinto ebangela ukuba ulawulo lukaBiden lungasebenzi."
"" Oku kuya kuba ngumxube wokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokukhula kwemarike yemisebenzi, kunye nendlela abathengi abaya kuzithemba ngayo.
"
Ixesha leposi: Jan-23-2024