I te mea kei te piki haere tonu te pakarutanga o te au o te ōhanga o Amerika, kua tino heke te utu o ētahi o ngā taonga, ā, ka heke tonu te tere pikinga i te tau 2024, e matapaetia ana ka eke te Fed ki te 2% o te whāinga pikinga tae noa ki te mutunga o te tau, ko ngā raraunga CPI i tukuna i te Rāpare ka tohu pea i te "au ārai-pikinga" e haere ake nei. Ngā Poraka Whakamutunga, Ngā Hononga Centronic me Ngā Whakaata o te Rīpene Pahikara me mōhio.
Mā tēnei ia hekenga ka akiaki pea te Fed kia noho pūmau ki tōna ara, me te tumanako ka tīmata te mākete i tana whakahekenga reiti tuatahi i te tīmatanga o Poutū-te-rangi.
Engari mō te Perehitini Joe Biden, tera pea he uaua ki a ia te whakamahi i te painga tōrangapū i roto i tana pakanga pōtitanga, ina koa kei te puhoi haere te ōhanga whānui, kei te heke rānei te mahi.
Tērā pea ka rongo te iwi i te pānga o te ia o te "ārai i te pikinga utu" i roto i ngā marama e haere ake nei, mā te pūrongo o te Taupū Utu Kaihoko (CPI) o Hakihea, i tukuna e te Tari Tatauranga Mahi (Bureau of Labor Statistics) i te Rāpare.
E whakaatu ana ngā tatauranga kua mutu te pikinga o ngā utu o ngā taonga o Amerika, ā, ko te nuinga o ngā taonga, pērā i ngā utu o ngā motuka, kua heke.
Kei te heke te pikinga utu o ngā utu i te US mai i ngā taumata teitei o te wā mate urutā.
E rua ngā kupu ōrite i roto i te kupu ōhanga —— "te whakahekenga utu" me te "whakakore i te pikinga utu", ā, kei te pāngia pea te US e te "whakakore i te pikinga utu" (te whakakore i te pikinga utu).
I roto i tētahi ōhanga e pāngia ana e te aukati i te pikinga utu, kei te piki tonu ngā utu.
Heoi, he puhoi ake tō rātou tipu i tō mua.
Kei te pai tonu te pikinga utu, engari kei ngā taumata iti.
Hei tauira, ko te Taupū Utu Kaihoko (CPI) he tohu pikinga matua hei whai i ngā utu toharite o tētahi kete taonga me ngā ratonga kaihoko, ā, i piki ake te CPI o te US mā te 3.1% i te marama o Noema mai i te tau i mua atu, he heke tere mai i te tihi o te 9.1% i te wā o te mate urutā i te marama o Hune 2022.
I mea atu a Sarah House, he kaitātari ōhanga matua i Wells Fargo: "Ko te aukati i te pikinga utu te mea e hiahia ana mātou kia kite i tēnei wā. He pai ake te hua o te aukati i te pikinga utu i te whakahekenga utu."
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E matapaetia ana ka hoki anō te CPI matua o te US ki te "era 3". E matapaetia ana e ngā kaiōhanga ka hoki anō te tipu o te CPI mai i te 3.1% ki te 3.3% i te marama o Tīhema, ko te tipu o te CPI matua, kāore i te whakaurua te kai me te pūngao, e matapaetia ana ka heke ki te 3.8% mai i te 4%.
Mena ka pakaru te tipu matua o te CPI ā-tau ki te 4% mō te wā tuatahi mai i te marama o Mei 2021, ka taea e te Fed te whakapiki ake i te maia ka hoki te pikinga utu ki tana whainga 2% i te tau 2024, ā, ka whakakotahi i ngā tumanakohanga mō te whakahekenga o te reiti o Poutū-te-rangi.
"Tērā pea ka ngoikore rawa ngā raraunga i tēnei tau."
"Tērā pea ka kite tonu koe i ngā whakapainga o te tuku e akiaki ana i ngā utu ki raro," te kī a Alan Detmeister, he tohunga ōhanga i UBS Investment Bank (UBS Investment Bank).
"E matapaetia ana ka pōturi te tipu i roto i te wā poto, engari e kore e taka ki roto i te paheketanga ohaoha."
"I roto i ngā marama kua taha ake nei, kua tere ake te heke o te pikinga utu i tā ngā tohunga ōhanga o Wall Street me te Fed i whakaaro ai, ā, kua hua ake ngā tumanakohanga kaha ka whakahekehia e te Fed tana reiti huamoni paerewa i tēnei tau."
Ko te matapae waenga mai i te kauwhata ira FOMC hou e whakaatu ana tera pea ka whakahekehia e te Fed ngā reiti kia toru ngā wā, mā te 25 ngā ira pūtake i te tau 2024, he nui ake te kaha i tā ngā āpiha o te Fed i tumanako ai i te marama o Hepetema.
Heoi, i kaha ake ngā tumanakohanga mō te whakahekenga o ngā reiti, me ngā mākete ā-mua o ngā reiti huamoni i peti i mua ka whakahekehia e te Fed ngā reiti mā te neke atu i te 150 ngā pūtake i te tau 2024, ka heke ki te 120 ngā pūtake i muri i te taumahatanga o ngā raraunga kore-pāmu, he nui ake i te mea i tumanakohia.
E ai ki te CME Fed Watch Tool, e matapaetia ana e ngā mākete ā-mua mō ngā reiti huamoni te tūponotanga 60% o te whakahekenga o te reiti tuatahi i te marama o Poutū-te-rangi, he iti iho i te tūponotanga tata ki te 90% o ngā kōrero whakahihi a ngā āpiha o te Fed me ngā meneti o te hui.
Ko te nuinga o tēnei hekenga ohorere o te pikinga utu nā te hekenga nui o ngā utu o ngā taonga matua.
Kua ono marama karapīpiti te hekenga o ngā utu o ngā taonga matua o te US tae noa ki Noema 2023.
Whai muri tēnei i te pikinga ake o te tono a ngā kaihoko me te whakararuraru i ngā utu o ngā taonga pēnei i ngā motuka me ngā kākahu i te mekameka tuku mai i Pēpuere 2020 ki Mei 2023.
E ai ki ngā meneti o te hui a te Fed i te marama o Tīhema i tukuna i te 3 o Hānuere, i kōrero ngā āpiha o te Fed mēnā i tā rātou hui kaupapa here i te marama kua taha ake nei, mā ngā whakapainga mekameka tuku ka taea tonu te whakaiti i te pikinga o ngā utu.
E pātai ana ngā kaipūtea mēnā he nui ake te wāhi hei whakapai ake i te tuku.
"He tino pūtake tēnei o te koretake," te kī a Sarah House, he kaitātari ōhanga matua i Wells Fargo & Co.).
"I te tīmatanga, i tere ake te pikinga o te pikinga utu i tā ngā tauira me ngā wheako o mua i matapaetia, ā, tērā pea ka tere ake te heke iho i tēnei wā i mua."
"He mea tino nui mēnā ka taea e te pikinga utu whare te heke tere." Engari kei te piki tonu ētahi atu wāhanga o te taupū utu kaihoko, inā koa i roto i te rāngai ratonga."
Ka aro nui ngā kaipūtea ki te pikinga utu whare, te wāhanga nui rawa atu o te CPI, e tata ana ki te hautoru o te katoa o te CPI, ā, e matapaetia ana e ngā kaipūtea ka roa ake pea te heke.
I roto i ngā marama 12 tae noa ki Poutū-te-rangi 2023, i eke te pikinga utu whare ki tōna taumata teitei rawa atu i te 8.2%, he nui ake i te awhe noa o te 3% ki te 3.5% i ngā tau i mua i te COVID-19.
Engari kua heke te pikinga utu whare mai i taua wā, ki te 6.5% tae noa ki Noema, ā, e matapaetia ana e ngā kaiōhanga ka haere tonu tēnei.
Engari he puhoi te ahunga whakamua, nā te mea he tohu whakaroa te whare, kāore anō kia whakaata katoa i te puhoi o te tipu reti i te tau 2023.
Nā te mea ka kite noa te tangata i ngā huringa reti ina whakahoutia te rīhi, ina nukuhia rānei ki tētahi wāhi hou.
"I te haurua tuarua o tēnei tau, me kite tātou i ngā utu reti o ia marama he tino tata ki ērā i kitea i mua i te pakarutanga mai o te COVID-19," te kī a Detmeister o UBS.
E ai ki tētahi rangahau a Bloomberg i whakahaerehia i waenganui o Hakihea 2023, e matapaetia ana e ngā kaiōhanga ka heke te ——, he taupū pikinga matua, ki te 2.2% i te mutunga o te tau, nā te hekenga tere ake o te pikinga whare i te tau 2023.
He tata tēnei ki ngā paearu i mua i te mate urutā.
I whakaatuhia e te rangahau a ngā kaihoko te pikinga ake o te whakapono ki te tirohanga pikinga utu —— Ahakoa he pānga pea tēnei ki te hekenga o ngā utu penehīni i te hauwhā whakamutunga o te tau.
Kei te piki tonu ngā utu kai mai i te tau kua hipa, engari kāore i te tere pērā i mua.
Ko te iti o te pikinga utu ka āwhina i te Perehitini Joe Biden ki te toa anō i te pōtitanga i mua i te pōtitanga o Noema nā te mea kua kī ngā kaipōti ko ngā utu me te ōhanga ngā mea matua i roto i tētahi rangahau.
Engari he ngoikore te mākete mahi —— He maha ngā kaimatapae, tae atu ki a UBS (UBS) me Wells Fargo (Wells Fargo), e matapae ana ka ngoikore te mākete mahi i tēnei tau i te mea ka pā kino ngā reiti huamoni teitei ki te tipu me te whakauru kaimahi, ā, ka taea e te ngoikore o te mākete mahi te whakararu i ngā painga tōrangapū o te puhoi o te pikinga utu mō te kāwanatanga o nāianei.
I mea atu a Sarah House, he tohunga ōhanga matua i Wells Fargo: "Mēnā ko tēnei puhoitanga he —— te utu mō te ngoikore o te tono, ā, e pā ana tēnei ki te mākete mahi, tera pea he āhuatanga hei whakakore i te whakahaerenga a Biden."
"" He ranunga tēnei o te pikinga utu me te tipu o te mākete mahi, me te ahunga o te whakapono o ngā kaihoko.
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Wā tuku: Hanuere-23-2024