Njengoba ukuqubuka okusha kokubhujiswa komkhuba womnotho wase-US kuqhubeka, amanye amanani ezimpahla aze ehla kakhulu, izinga lokukhuphuka kwamanani lizokwehla kakhulu ngo-2024, kulindeleke ukuthi kube sekupheleni konyaka lapho i-fed ibeke umgomo wokukhuphuka kwamanani angu-2%, idatha ye-CPI ekhishwe ngoLwesine ingase ibonise "umkhuba wokulwa nokukhuphuka kwamanani". Amabhulokhi Etheminali, Izixhumi ze-Centronic futhi Izibonisi Zezipoki Zebhayisikili kufanele kuqashelwe.
Lokhu kwehla kwentengo kungenza i-Fed ihlale iqinile endleleni yayo, kulindeleke ukuthi imakethe iqale ukwehlisa izinga layo lokuqala ngoMashi.
Kodwa endabeni kaMengameli uJoe Biden, kungase kube nzima ngaye ukusizakala kwezepolitiki emkhankasweni wakhe wokhetho, ikakhulukazi njengoba umnotho uwonke wehla noma imisebenzi iyehla.
Umbiko we-Consumer Price Index (CPI) kaDisemba, okhishwe yi-Bureau of Labor Statistics (Bureau of Labor Statistics) ngoLwesine, ungenza abantu bazizwele umthelela womkhuba "wokulwa nokwehla kwamandla emali" ezinyangeni ezizayo.
Izibalo zibonisa ukuthi amanani ezimpahla zaseMelika ngokuvamile ayekile ukukhuphuka, futhi izimpahla eziningi, njengentengo yezimoto, ziye zathuthela endaweni eyehlayo.
Ukwehla kwamandla emali e-US kuyehla kusukela ezingeni eliphezulu ngesikhathi sobhubhane.
Kunamagama amabili afanayo egameni lezomnotho —— elithi “ukwehla kwamandla emali” kanye nelithi “ukulwa nokwehla kwamandla emali”, futhi i-US cishe ibhekene “nokulwa nokwehla kwamandla emali” (ukunciphisa ukwehla kwamandla emali).
Emnothweni obhekene nokulwa nokwehla kwamandla emali, amanani asakhuphuka.
Kodwa-ke, zikhula kancane kunangaphambili.
Ukwehla kwamandla emali kusalokhu kukuhle, kodwa kusezingeni eliphansi.
Isibonelo, i-Consumer Price Index (CPI) iyinkomba ebalulekile yokwehla kwamandla emali yokulandelela amanani ajwayelekile ebhasikidi lezimpahla nezinsizakalo zabathengi, kanti i-US CPI ikhuphuke ngo-3.1% ngoNovemba kusukela ngonyaka odlule, yehle kakhulu isuka esicongweni esingu-9.1% ngesikhathi sobhubhane ngoJuni 2022.
USarah House, isazi sezomnotho esiphezulu eWells Fargo, uthe: "Ukulwa nokwehla kwamandla emali yilokho esifuna ukukubona okwamanje. Ukulwa nokwehla kwamandla emali kuwumphumela ongcono kunokwehla kwamandla emali."
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I-CPI eyinhloko yase-US kulindeleke ukuthi ibuyele "enkathini yesi-3". Izazi zezomnotho zilindele kakhulu ukuthi ukukhula kwe-CPI kuzobuya kusuka ku-3.1% kuya ku-3.3% ngoDisemba, kanti ukukhula kwe-CPI eyinhloko, ngaphandle kokudla namandla, kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle ku-3.8% kusuka ku-4%.
Uma ukukhula kwe-CPI okuyinhloko unyaka nonyaka kweqa ngo-4% okokuqala kusukela ngoMeyi 2021, kungenza i-Fed ibe nethemba elikhulu lokuthi ukukhuphuka kwamanani kuzobuyela esilinganisweni sayo esingu-2% ngo-2024, ngaleyo ndlela kuhlanganiswe okulindelwe kokwehliswa kwezinga ngoMashi.
"Idatha cishe izoba buthaka kakhulu kulo nyaka."
Usengabona ukuthuthuka ekuhlinzekeni ngezimpahla kwehlisa amanani, "kusho u-Alan Detmeister, isazi sezomnotho e-UBS Investment Bank (UBS Investment Bank).
"Silindele ukuthi ukukhula kuzokwehla kakhulu esikhathini esifushane, kodwa hhayi ukuwela ekuwohlokeni komnotho."
"Ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezedlule, ukukhuphuka kwamanani entengo kwehle ngokushesha kunalokho obekulindelwe yiWall Street kanye nezazi zezomnotho zeFed, okuholele ekulindelweni okunamandla kokuthi iFed izonciphisa izinga layo lenzalo elijwayelekile kakhulu kulo nyaka."
Isibikezelo esimaphakathi esivela ku-FOMC dot plot yakamuva sibonisa ukuthi i-Fed kungenzeka yehlise amazinga okungenani kathathu ngamaphuzu angu-25 ngo-2024, okunolaka olukhulu kakhulu kunalokho okwakulindelwe yizikhulu ze-Fed ngoSepthemba.
Kodwa-ke, okulindelwe kokwehliswa kwamanani kwakunamandla kakhulu, izimakethe zenzalo zesikhathi esizayo zazike zabheja ukuthi i-Fed izokwehlisa amanani ngamaphuzu angaphezu kuka-150 ngo-2024, yehle iye cishe kumaphuzu ayisisekelo angu-120 ngemuva kokusindwa idatha engaphezu kakhulu kunalokho obekulindelwe okungeyona eyepulazi.
Ngokusho kwe-CME Fed Watch Tool, izimakethe zesikhathi esizayo zenzalo manje zilindele ithuba elingu-60% lokwehla kwentengo yokuqala ngoMashi, okungaphansi kakhulu kwamathuba acishe abe ngu-90% okuphawula kwe-hawkish okuvela kubaphathi be-Fed kanye nemizuzu.
Lokhu kwehla okumangalisayo kokwehla kwamandla emali kungenxa kakhulu yokwehla okukhulu kwamanani entengo yezimpahla eziyinhloko.
Amanani entengo eyinhloko yezimpahla zase-US ehle izinyanga eziyisithupha zilandelana kuze kube nguNovemba 2023.
Lokho kulandela ukwanda kwesidingo sabathengi kanye nokuphazamiseka kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwamanani ezimpahla ezifana nezimoto nezingubo kusukela ngoFebhuwari 2020 kuya kuMeyi 2023.
Ngokusho kwamaminithi omhlangano we-Fed kaDisemba owakhishwa ngoJanuwari 3, izikhulu ze-Fed zixoxe ngokuthi ukuthuthukiswa kwe-supply chain emhlanganweni wazo wenqubomgomo ngenyanga edlule kungaqhubeka yini nokunciphisa ukwehla kwentengo.
Izazi zezomnotho ziyazibuza ukuthi ngabe ikhona yini indawo eyengeziwe yokuthuthukisa ukuphakelwa.
"Lokhu kungumthombo omkhulu wokungaqiniseki," kusho uSarah House, isazi sezomnotho esiphezulu kwaWells Fargo & Co.).
"Ukwehla kwamandla emali ekuqaleni kwakhuphuka ngokushesha kunalokho okwakubikezelwe ngamamodeli kanye nokuhlangenwe nakho kwangaphambilini, futhi manje kungase kwehle ngokushesha kunangaphambili."
"Kubalulekile ukuthi ukukhuphuka kwentengo yezindlu kungangena enkambisweni yokwehla okusheshayo. Kodwa ezinye izingxenye zenkomba yamanani abathengi, ikakhulukazi emkhakheni wezinsizakalo, zisalokhu zikhuphuka."
Izazi zezomnotho zizoqapha kakhulu ukwenyuka kwentengo yezindlu, okuyingxenye enkulu ye-CPI, ecishe ibe yingxenye yesithathu ye-CPI iyonke, futhi izazi zezomnotho zilindele ukuthi kungathatha isikhathi eside ukwehla.
Ezinyangeni eziyi-12 kuya kuMashi 2023, ukwehla kwamandla emali kwezindlu kwafinyelela ku-8.2%, okungaphezu kakhulu kwesilinganiso esivamile esingu-3% kuya ku-3.5% eminyakeni yangaphambi kwe-COVID-19.
Kodwa ukukhuphuka kwentengo yezindlu kuye kwehla kusukela ngaleso sikhathi, kwehla kwafinyelela cishe ku-6.5% kuze kube uNovemba, futhi izazi zomnotho ngokuvamile zilindele ukuthi kuqhubeke.
Kodwa intuthuko ihamba kancane, ngoba izindlu ziyisibonakaliso esibambekayo esingakabonakali ngokugcwele ukwehla kokukhula kwerenti ngo-2023.
Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi abantu babona kuphela ushintsho lwerenti lapho isivumelwano sokuqasha sivuselelwa noma sithuthelwa endaweni entsha.
"Ngengxenye yesibili yalo nyaka, kufanele sibone intela yenyanga isondele kakhulu kuleyo ebonwe ngaphambi kokuqubuka kwe-COVID-19," kusho uDetmeister wase-UBS.
Ngokusho kocwaningo lweBloomberg olwenziwe maphakathi noDisemba 2023, izazi zomnotho zilindele ukuthi i-——, inkomba yokwehla kwamandla emali, yehle iye ku-2.2% ekupheleni konyaka, okusizwa ukwehla okusheshayo kokwehla kwamandla emali kwezindlu ngo-2023.
Lokhu kusondelene nezindlela zangaphambi kobhubhane.
Ucwaningo lwabathengi lubonise ukuzethemba okuthuthukisiwe ngombono wokwehla kwamandla emali —— Nakuba lokhu kungase kuhlobane ngokwengxenye nokwehla kwamanani kaphethiloli kwikota yokugcina yonyaka.
Amanani okudla asakhuphuka kusukela onyakeni odlule, kodwa hhayi ngokushesha njengoba ayenjalo.
Ukwehla kwamandla emali okuphansi ngokwako kufanele kusize uMengameli uJoe Biden ukuthi anqobe ukhetho kabusha ngaphambi kokhetho lwangoNovemba ngoba abavoti bakhulume ngamanani kanye nomnotho njengezinto eziyinhloko ocwaningweni.
Kodwa imakethe yemisebenzi ebuthakathaka —— Ababikezeli abaningi, okuhlanganisa i-UBS (UBS) kanye ne-Wells Fargo (Wells Fargo), balindele ukuthi imakethe yemisebenzi izoba buthaka kulo nyaka njengoba amazinga enzalo aphezulu elimaza ukukhula nokuqashwa, kuyilapho imakethe yemisebenzi ebuthakathaka ingalimaza izinzuzo zezepolitiki zokunciphisa ukwehla kwamandla emali kuhulumeni wamanje.
USarah House, isazi sezomnotho esiphezulu eWells Fargo, uthe: "Uma lokhu kwehla kwentengo --- kubiza ukuncipha kwesidingo futhi lokhu kuhlobene nemakethe yemisebenzi, kungaba yimbangela yokunciphisa izindleko zohulumeni bakaBiden."
"" Lokhu kuzoba yinhlanganisela yokwehla kwamandla emali kanye nokukhula kwemakethe yemisebenzi, kanye nesiqondiso sokuzethemba kwabathengi.
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Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Jan-23-2024