India ikukumana ndi mliri watsopano wa COV ID - 19. Kuyambira pa Epulo 22, chiwerengero cha milandu yatsopano yotsimikizika ku India chapitirira 3000,0000, zomwe zikuphwanya milandu yatsopano yambiri tsiku limodzi lokha lomwe lakhazikitsidwa ku United States. Milandu yonse yotsimikizika ku India yafika 17.3132 miliyoni, yachiwiri ku United States. Chipika chamagetsi cha terminal, zolumikizira za bolodi la pcb ku bolodi ndi chowunikira cha makona atatu ziyenera kudziwika.
Chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa katemera, kusiyana kwa mavairasi komanso kusowa kwa zipangizo zachipatala, India yalowa mu mkhalidwe wadzidzidzi, ndipo malo ambiri ayamba kutseka mzindawu. Komabe, njira zoletsera zomwe zinachitika chaka chatha zabweretsa mavuto aakulu ku chuma cha India, zomwe zawonetsa kukula koyipa kwa GDP kwa magawo awiri otsatizana chaka chatha. Kodi kusintha kwa mliri ku India ndi chuma cha padziko lonse lapansi kwakhudza bwanji chaka chino? Kodi ndi mafakitale ati omwe China idzakhudzidwa nawo?
Ndondomeko zoletsa kutsika kwa chuma zakhudza chuma
Pakadali pano, mbali zina za India zatsekedwa m'mizinda. New Delhi yalengeza kuti dzikolo latseka kwa sabata imodzi kuyambira pa 1 Epulo 9. Panthawi ya lockdown, malo ogulitsira zinthu, malo owonera makanema, malo odyera ndi malo ena opezeka anthu ambiri azikhala otsekedwa. Mayiko ena khumi ndi atatu asankhanso kukhazikitsa ziletso kumapeto kwa sabata, kuchepetsa zochepa, kapena kutseka. Mwa awa, Maharashtra, yomwe ikuyimira pafupifupi 1.5% ya GDP ku India, yatseka mafakitale ake ambiri kuyambira pa 1.4 Epulo.
Kukula kwa GDP kukukayikira
Kuletsedwaku kunawonjezera kuipa kwa chuma cha India chomwe chinali chofooka kale. Ndipotu, kukula kwachuma ku India kunachepa kwambiri mliriwu usanayambe, ndipo Central Bureau of Statistics inasonyeza kuti India inakula ndi 4.2% mu chaka chachuma cha 2019 - 2020 (Epulo 2019 ~ Marichi 2020), komwe kunali kotsika kwambiri kuyambira zaka 11.
India yatsekedwa kuyambira Marichi mpaka Juni chaka chatha. Mu kapangidwe ka zachuma ku India, makampani opereka chithandizo amawerengera pafupifupi 60% ya GDP, ndipo yatsala pang'ono kuyimitsa chuma, ndipo kukula koyipa kunachitika kwa magawo awiri otsatizana. GDP QQ 2 0 2 0 - 2 0 2 1 (Epulo - Juni 2 0 2 0), kuchepa koyipa kwambiri ku India kuyambira deta yake yachuma ya kotala mu 1996; GDP ya India idapitilira kutsika ndi 7. 5% mu kotala lachiwiri (Julayi - Seputembala 2 0 2 0) .Q 3 (Okutobala - Disembala 2 0 2 0), GDP ku India yayamba kuyambiranso kukula kwabwino, Kuwonjezeka ndi 0.4% .Ngakhale zili choncho, India ikadali yoipa chaka chonse, Malinga ndi zomwe zanenedwa posachedwa ndi Central Statistics pa February 2 6, India ikuyembekezeka kukula pa - 8% pa FY 2 0 2 0 - 2 0 2 1 .
Kumayambiriro kwa Epulo, IMF idatulutsa lipoti laposachedwa la World Economic Outlook, lomwe lidapereka chiwonetsero cha kukula kwa India cha 12.5% pa 2021, chomwe chinali chiwongola dzanja chapamwamba kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi, 8.4% ndi 6% padziko lonse lapansi. IMF idapereka chifukwa chake kuchira kunali kolimba kuposa momwe amayembekezera poyamba pambuyo pa mayiko ena akuluakulu monga India. Komabe, akatswiri ena azachuma amakhulupirira kuti chiwongola dzanja sichingakwaniritsidwe ngakhale kutengera maziko otsika a chaka chatha. IMF ikuwonetsanso kusatsimikizika kwakukulu mtsogolo, ndipo chiyembekezo chachuma chikhoza kuchepa kwambiri ngati vuto latsopano lolimba lingakokere mliriwu kwambiri.
Zotsatira zake pa katundu ndi mafakitale aku China
Unduna wa zakunja ku China wanena kuti uli wokonzeka kupereka thandizo lofunikira komanso kuthandiza India kuti ithetse mliriwu.
Gawo la China lotumiza kunja likhoza kusungidwa
Kwa chuma cha China, mliri wa ku India umabweretsanso mwayi. Chen Jianheng, katswiri wa CICC, adati kukwera kwa msika m'misika yatsopano kungasunge gawo la China logulitsa kunja kwa nthawi ndithu. Ngati kufalikira kwa kachilomboka m'maiko monga India, Brazil ndi South-East Asia kubwereranso, kupanga mafakitale ndi kutumiza kunja m'maiko awa kungakhudzidwe, zomwe zingapindulitse mayiko omwe ali ndi mphamvu zowongolera bwino mliriwu. Mwachitsanzo, kuyambira chaka chatha, China yakhala imodzi mwa mayiko abwino kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi olamulira mliriwu, ndipo m'maiko aku Southeast Asia, Vietnam yawongoleranso mliriwu bwino, zomwe zapangitsa kuti China ndi Vietnam zikule bwino kwambiri kuposa mayiko ena aku Southeast Asia.
Malinga ndi ziwerengero za WTO, China ndi Vietnam zokha ndi zomwe zidakula bwino mu 2020, zomwe China idatumiza kunja zidakwera ndi 3.6 peresenti, koma South Korea, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Brazil ndi Mexico zonse zidatsika mu 2020 poyerekeza ndi 2019, makamaka India, komwe kutumiza kunja kudatsika kwambiri ndi 14.8 peresenti.
Kusamutsa maoda a API m'dziko muno komwe kungatheke
Kuchokera pamalingaliro a mafakitale padziko lonse lapansi, zotsatira zake zazikulu zikuphatikizapo API, mafakitale a nsalu ndi madera ena. India ndiye wogulitsa wamkulu wa msika wa API wapadziko lonse, ndipo kufalikira kwa matendawa kukulepheretsa kupanga API ku India, kuphatikiza ndi zoletsa za maulendo a mayiko ena ku India, zipangitsa kuti pakhale kusiyana kwakanthawi pamsika wa API wapadziko lonse. Monga mankhwala ofunikira, kufunikira kwa API ndi kolimba, ndipo pansi pa kusiyana kwa kupezeka ndi kufunikira, mtengo wa API ukuyembekezeka kukhalabe wokwera.
Katswiri wa Chuan Cai Securities, Chen Jian, adati China ndi India ndi mayiko omwe amapereka mankhwala osaphika, pali kuthekera kotumiza maoda. Kupezeka kwa zinthu zopangira ku China pakadali pano ndi 9% ya dziko lapansi ndi 12% ku India. Pokonzekera API, imagawidwa kwambiri m'magulu a API yochuluka, API yodziwika bwino ndi API ya patent. Pakadali pano, China imatumiza zinthu zambiri zopangira, zomwe zimatenga malo opitilira unyolo wamafakitale, makamaka kupereka 68% ya zinthu zopangira zambiri pamsika waku India, pomwe India ndiye zinthu zopangira zazikulu, zomwe zimatenga malo apakati a unyolo wamafakitale. Kuchokera pamalingaliro azinthu, mankhwala osaphika akuluakulu ku India ndi oletsa matenda, mtima, dongosolo lapakati la mitsempha, malo opumira, momwe kuchuluka kwa matenda ndi mtima kumapitilira 50. Pakadali pano, China ili ndi kuchuluka kwina m'magawo ogwirizana, mphamvu zopangira ndizokwanira, ku India mphamvu zopangira mankhwala osaphika zimalepheretsedwa, zikuyembekezeka kuti maoda ambiri adzasamutsidwira kumakampani a API am'nyumba, okhudzana ndi am'nyumba akuyembekezeka kupindula.
Ndipotu, mtengo wa magawo a makampani okhudzana ndi API a A wakhudzidwa ndi mliri wa ku India ndipo wakwera. Pa Epulo 26, masheya a API adakwera, Minova, makampani opanga mankhwala ku Huahai, malire ogulitsa mafakitale ogulitsa mankhwala, omwe Minova yakhala ikuchita malonda masiku atatu otsatizana. Makampani opanga mankhwala ku Tonghe adakwerapo kuposa 15. Kuphatikiza apo, mankhwala a mankhwala, katemera wachilengedwe, zida zamankhwala ndi zina zokhudzana nazo zidakweranso.
Munthu wina wochokera ku kampani ya mankhwala yapadziko lonse anati zinthu zake zambiri zinali zamoyo, zowiritsidwa ndi zida zochitira zinthu zamoyo, osati mankhwala achilengedwe, motero sizikhudzidwa kwambiri ndi mliri wa ku India. Kwa makampani opanga mankhwala padziko lonse lapansi, izi zimadalira kwambiri malo awo mu unyolo wa mafakitale. Ngati zinthu zopangira zomwe makampani opanga mankhwala akuchokera ku India, zidzakhudzidwa, ndipo ngati zomwe zikugwirizana ndi kapangidwe ka mzere wopanga wa ku India, ndizabwino. Ma API ambiri aku India amatumiza ku Europe ndi United States, ndipo ochepa okha ku China, kotero ndi mwayi kwa makampani opanga mankhwala am'nyumba.
Ubwino wa nsalu kapena wa kanthawi kochepa
India ndiyenso dziko lomwe limapanga thonje lalikulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi, makampani opanga nsalu m'dziko muno nawonso angakhale abwino pakanthawi kochepa. Katswiri wa Huaxi Securities, Tang Shuangshuang, adati kuchuluka kwa ulusi ku India ndi komwe kumakhudza anthu oposa 20 peresenti padziko lonse lapansi, omwe akhudzidwa ndi mliri wa ku India, tsogolo la thonje lakwera ndi 3 peresenti sabata yatha, chiwerengero cha ulusi cha ku China cha C32S chinakweranso.
Misika yamasheya ku India yakhudzidwa kwambiri
Kuchokera pamalingaliro amsika wazachuma, mliriwu wayambitsa msika wamasheya ku India, msika wa ndalama zakunja wakhudzidwa. Chiwerengero cha SENSEX30 ku India chatsika ndi 2.27 peresenti kuyambira Epulo, chatsika ndi 0.91 peresenti sabata yatha kwa milungu itatu yotsatizana. Chatsika kwambiri kumayambiriro kwa Januware.
Kutsika kwa chuma cha rupee ku India kwakula kwambiri
Ndalama ya rupee yaku India yatsikanso kwa milungu iwiri poyerekeza ndi dola kuyambira Epulo, kutsika konsekonse kwa 2.12% kuyambira pa Epulo 26.
Samir, mkulu wa zachuma wa banki ya boma la India (Bank of Baroda), anati: "Poganizira za dola yolimba, ndalama za m'misika yatsopano zofooka, ndalama zolowera zochepa za m'misika yatsopano komanso milandu yatsopano ya korona, rupee ya ku India ikhoza kutsika mtengo," anatero a Nalang. "Rupee ya ku India ikhoza"
Kuwonjezera pa kuchuluka kwa milandu yotsimikizika, Reuters inanena kuti chisankho cha Indian Central Bank chodzipereka kugula ma bond ambiri chinawonjezera kutsika kwa ndalama za rupee ku India.
Zoopsa zamtsogolo za mafuta osakonzedwa
India ndi dziko lachiwiri lokhala ndi anthu ambiri padziko lonse lapansi komanso lomwe limagwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zambiri, lachitatu padziko lonse lapansi lomwe limatumiza mafuta ambiri. Kuchuluka kwa mafuta osakonzedwa kwapitilizabe kutsika chifukwa cha mantha akuti mliriwu ungawononge kufunikira kwa mphamvu ku India. Kuchuluka kwa mafuta osakonzedwa a WTI ndi kukwera kwa mafuta osakonzedwa a London Brent kwatsika pafupifupi 1.5% pafupifupi 19:25 nthawi ya Beijing Lachitatu. Komabe, wofufuza za tsogolo la South China Yuan Ming akukhulupirira kuti msika wa mafuta osakonzedwa ulibe kutsika kosalekeza, komwe kuyenera kutsatiridwa ndi msonkhano watsopano wa OPEC kumapeto kwa Epulo.
Dola lachepetsa mphamvu ya RMB
Malinga ndi misika yazachuma padziko lonse lapansi, Posachedwapa, zokolola za US bond zatsika pang'ono, zokolola za zaka 10 zatsika kufika pa 1.5% kuchokera pamlingo wapamwamba wa 1.7% kumapeto kwa Marichi. Dola yafookanso kachiwiri, index ya dola yatsika pafupifupi 2.5% kuyambira Epulo, pakadali pano ili pafupifupi 90.8. Chiwongola dzanja cha RMB chakhalabe cholimba, kuyambira Epulo, yuan yakwera kuchokera pafupifupi 6.48 kuchokera pafupifupi 6.57 kumayambiriro kwa mwezi.
Lipoti la kafukufuku wa CICC linanena kuti phindu la ma bond aku US ndi dola yaku US linatsikanso chifukwa mphamvu yakuchira kwachuma ikhoza kukhudzidwa ndi mliriwu. Ngati mliri wapadziko lonse utabwereranso, ndiye kuti zoletsa zazikulu za chuma cha padziko lonse sizinachepe, sizidzawona kuuma kwakukulu kwa mabanki apakati padziko lonse lapansi, msika udzabwerera ku lingaliro lisanafike nthawi ino ya ngongole zaku US, ndikupitilizabe kuchita zinthu zoopsa zambiri, kuphatikiza masheya ndi zinthu zina. Pamene nkhawa yokhudza kuuma kwa Fed ikuchepa ndipo chilakolako cha chiopsezo chikayambiranso, dola imabwerera m'mbuyo. Nthawi yomweyo, kutumiza kunja kwa China kudzathandizanso pang'ono RMB exchange rate pamene ikhalabe yokwera kwakanthawi kochepa.
Komabe, CICC inanenanso kuti nthawi yaposachedwapa ndi yochepa chabe yokonza, m'kupita kwa nthawi, kukwera kwa mliriwu sikudzasintha mzere wa kukwera kwa mitengo, chizolowezi cha kukwera kwa chiwongola dzanja cha ma bond aku US komanso dola yolimba sichinathe. Kukwera kwa mitengo ku US kukakwera kufika pa zomwe zikuyembekezeredwa m'miyezi ingapo ikubwerayi, Fed ingafunike kulimbitsa. Chiwongola dzanja cha ogwira ntchito m'misika yotukuka chakwera pang'onopang'ono, ndipo ngati boma la Biden silikukulitsanso kwambiri ndalama zake, koma liyamba kupereka msonkho kwa olemera, ndiye kuti chilakolako cha chiopsezo chingagwerenso, kulimbitsa chiwongola dzanja ndi dola yaku US pakati ndi kotala lachiwiri. Dola yolimba idzabweretsa kusintha kwa chuma cha chiopsezo, motero ikukumana ndi kusintha kwakukulu pamsika wa ma bond aku China.
Nthawi yotumizira: Meyi-06-2021