India iri kusangana nedambudziko idzva reCOV ID - 19. Kubva musi wa22 Kubvumbi, huwandu hwevanhu vatsva vakasimbiswa muIndia hwaramba huchidarika 300, 000, zvichipfuura huwandu hwevanhu vatsva vakasimbiswa muzuva rimwe chete muUnited States. Huwandu hwevanhu vakasimbiswa muIndia hwasvika 17.3132 miriyoni, yechipiri kubva kuUnited States. Chivharo chemagetsi cheterminal, zvinobatanidza bhodhi rePCB nebhodhi uye chiratidzo chetriangle zvinofanira kucherechedzwa.
Nekuda kwehuwandu hwemajekiseni ekudzivirira, kusiyana kwehutachiona uye kushomeka kwezvekushandisa mukurapa, India yapinda mumamiriro ezvinhu enjodzi, uye nzvimbo zhinji dzatanga kuvhara guta. Zvisinei, matanho ekurambidza egore rapfuura akakonzera matambudziko makuru kuhupfumi hweIndia, zvichiratidza kukura kwakashata kweGDP kwezvikamu zviviri zvakatevedzana gore rapfuura. Ndeipi mhedzisiro yekuvandudzwa kwedenda muIndia nehupfumi hwepasi rose gore rino? Ndeapi maindasitiri achakanganiswa neChina?
Matanho ekudzora hupfumi akanganisa hupfumi
Parizvino, zvikamu zveIndia zvakavharwa mumaguta. New Delhi yakazivisa kuvharirwa kwevhiki imwe chete kubva musi wa1 Kubvumbi kusvika 9. Munguva yekuvharirwa, zvitoro zvikuru, macinema, maresitorendi nedzimwe nzvimbo dzeveruzhinji zvicharamba zvakavharwa. Dzimwe nyika gumi nenhatu dzakasarudzawo kuisa zvirambidzo pakupera kwevhiki, zvishoma, kana kuvharirwa. Panyaya idzi, Maharashtra, inomiririra inoda kusvika 1.5% yeGDP muIndia, yakavhara mafekitori ayo mazhinji kubvira musi wa1.4 Kubvumbi.
Kukura kweGDP kwava mubvunzo
Kuvharirwa kwacho kwakawedzera kuipa kuhupfumi hweIndia hwakanga husisina kusimba. Kutaura zvazviri, kukura kwehupfumi hweIndia kwakanga kwadzikira zvakanyanya dambudziko risati ratanga, uye Central Bureau of Statistics yakaratidza kuti India yakakura ne4.2% mugore remari ra2019 - 2020 (Kubvumbi 2019 ~ Kurume 2020), kudzikira kutsva kubva mugore rimwe chete.
India yakavharirwa kubva munaKurume kusvika Chikumi gore rapfuura. Muhurongwa hwehupfumi hweIndia, indasitiri yebasa inokwana 6 0% yeGDP, yakada kumisa hupfumi, kukura kwakashata kwakaitika kwezvikamu zviviri zvakatevedzana. GDP QQ 2 0 2 0 - 2 0 2 1 (Kubvumbi - Chikumi 2 0 2 0), kudzikira kwakanyanya muIndia kubva padata rayo rehupfumi rekota muna 1996; GDP yeIndia yakaramba ichidzikira ne7. 5% muchikamu chechipiri (Chikunguru - Gunyana 2 0 2 0). Q 3 (Gumiguru - Zvita 2 0 2 0), GDP muIndia inotangazve kukura zvakanaka, Inowedzera ne0.4%. Kunyangwe zvakadaro, India inoramba isina kunaka mugore rese. Sekureva kwefungidziro yazvino yakaburitswa neCentral Statistics musi wa2 Kukadzi, India inotarisirwa kukura pa - 8% yeFY 2 0 2 0 - 2 0 2 1.
Mukutanga kwaKubvumbi, IMF yakaburitsa World Economic Outlook yazvino, iyo yakapa India fungidziro yekukura kwe12.5% ye2021, chiyero chepamusoro-soro chekukura kwepasi rose, 8.4% uye 6% pasi rose. IMF yakapa chikonzero chekuti kupora kwakasimba kupfuura zvaitarisirwa pakutanga mushure medzimwe nyika huru dzakadai seIndia. Zvisinei, vamwe vezvehupfumi vanotenda kuti chiyero chekukura hachigone kuwanikwa kunyangwe zvichibva pane low base yegore rapfuura. IMF inotaurawo kusava nechokwadi kukuru mune ramangwana, uye tarisiro yehupfumi inogona kudzikira zvakanyanya kana dambudziko idzva risingatsungiririki rikawedzera denda.
Mhedzisiro pakutengeserana kwenyika neindasitiri zveChina
Bazi rezvekunze reChina rakati rakagadzirira kupa rutsigiro rwakakosha nekubatsira India kudzora denda iri.
Mugove weChina unotengeswa kunze kwenyika unogona kuramba uripo
Kune hupfumi hweChina, denda reIndia rinounzawo mikana. Chen Jianheng, muongorori weCICC, akati kukwira kwemitengo mumisika iri kubuda kunogona kuchengetedza mugove weChina wekutengesa kunze kwenyika kwenguva yakati. Kana denda iri rikawedzerazve munyika dzakadai seIndia, Brazil neSouth-East Asia, kugadzirwa kwemaindasitiri nekutengesa kunze kwenyika munyika idzi kunogona kukanganiswa, zvichibatsira nyika dzine simba rekutonga denda iri zviri nani. Semuenzaniso, kubva gore rapfuura, China yave iri imwe yenyika dzakanakisa pasi rose kudzora denda iri, uye munyika dzeSoutheast Asia, Vietnam yakadzorawo denda iri zviri nani, izvo zvakaita kuti China neVietnam zviwedzere kukura kwezvinhu kunze kwenyika kupfuura dzimwe nyika dzeSoutheast Asia.
Zvichienderana nehuwandu hweWTO, China neVietnam chete ndizvo zvakawana kukura kwakanaka muna 2020, izvo zvinhu zvakatengeswa neChina zvakawedzera ne3.6 muzana, asi South Korea, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Brazil neMexico zvese zvakadzikira muna 2020 zvichienzaniswa negore ra2019, kunyanya India, uko zvinhu zvakatengeswa zvakadzikira zvakanyanya ne14.8 muzana.
Kutamiswa kwemirairo yeAPI kunogoneka mukati menyika
Kubva pamaonero epasi rose emaindasitiri, kukanganisa kukuru kunosanganisira API, indasitiri yemachira nedzimwe nzvimbo. India ndiyo inonyanya kupa musika wepasi rose weAPI, uye denda iri rinotadzisa kugadzirwa kweAPI yeIndia, pamwe chete nemiganhu yekufamba nedzimwe nyika kuIndia, zvichatungamira mukaha wenguva pfupi mumusika weAPI wepasi rose. Semushonga unodiwa, kudiwa kweAPI kwakasimba, uye pasi pemukakaha wekuwanikwa nekudiwa, mutengo weAPI unotarisirwa kuramba wakakwira.
Muongorori weChuan Cai Securities, Chen Jian, akataura kuti China neIndia inyika dzese dziri kupa mishonga isina kugadzirwa, pane mukana wekutamiswa kweodha. Kuwanikwa kwezvinhu zvisina kugadzirwa muChina kuri kuita 9% yepasi rose uye 12% muIndia. Mukugadzirira API, inonyanya kukamurwa kuita bulk API, characteristic API uye patent API. Parizvino, China inotumira kunze kwenyika zvinhu zvakawanda zvisina kugadzirwa, zvichitora nzvimbo yepamusoro yeindasitiri, ichipa 68% yezvinhu zvisina kugadzirwa mumusika weIndia, nepo India iriyo inonyanya kukosha, ichitora nzvimbo yepakati peindasitiri. Kubva pakuona kwechigadzirwa, mishonga mikuru isina kugadzirwa muIndia inodzivirira hutachiona, mwoyo, tsinga dzepakati, nzvimbo yekufema, umo huwandu hwehutachiona nemwoyo hunopfuura 50. Parizvino, China ine huwandu hwakati wandei muminda ine chekuita nazvo, kugona kwekugadzira kwakaringanawo, muIndia kugona kwekugadzira mishonga isina kugadzirwa kwakadzikira, zvinotarisirwa kuti maodha akawanda achaendeswa kumabhizinesi emuno, ane chekuita neAPI anotarisirwa kubatsirwa.
Kutaura zvazviri, mutengo wemasheya emakambani eA ane chekuita neAPI wakanganiswa nedenda reIndia uye wakwira. Kubvumbi 26, masheya eAPI akakwira, Minova, Huahai pharmaceutical industry, muganho wekutengeserana kweindasitiri yemishonga, pakati pawo Minova yave nemazuva matatu akatevedzana ekutengeserana. Indasitiri yemishonga yeTonghe yakambokwira kupfuura 15. Pamusoro pezvo, mishonga yemakemikari, majekiseni ebhayoloji, zvishandiso zvekurapa nezvimwe zvine chekuita nazvo zvakakwirawo.
Mumwe munhu anobva kukambani yemishonga yepasi rose akati zvigadzirwa zvayo zvakawanda zvaive zvinhu zvehupenyu, zvakaviriswa nemidziyo yekurapa, kwete mishonga yemakemikari, saka hazvinyanyi kukanganiswa nedenda reIndia. Kune makambani emishonga pasi rose, zvinonyanya kuenderana nenzvimbo yavo muchikamu chemaindasitiri. Kana zvinhu zvakagadzirwa nemakambani emishonga zvichibva kuIndia chete, zvichakanganiswa, uye kana chimwe chikapindirana nechimiro chemutsetse wekugadzira weIndia, zvakanaka. Mazhinji eAPI eIndia anotumira kunze kwenyika kuEurope nekuUnited States, uye mashoma chete kuChina, saka mukana wemakambani emakemikari emuno.
Mabhenefiti ezvishandiso zvemachira kana zvenguva pfupi
India ndiyo zvakare inogadzira donje guru pasi rose, indasitiri yemachira yemuno inogonawo kuva yakanaka munguva pfupi. Muongorori weHuaxi Securities, Tang Shuangshuang, akataura kuti kugona kweshinda muIndia kwaipfuura 20 muzana yepasi rose, yakanganiswa nedenda reIndia, ramangwana redonje rakawedzera ne3 muzana svondo rapfuura, indekisi yeshinda yeChina yeC32S yakakwirawo.
Misika yemasheya muIndia yakanganiswa zvikuru
Kubva pamaonero emusika wezvemari, denda iri rakakonzera musika wemasheya muIndia, musika wemari yekunze unokanganiswa. Nhamba yeSENSEX30 yeIndia yadonha ne2.27 muzana kubva muna Kubvumbi, ichidonha ne0.91 muzana svondo rapfuura kwemavhiki matatu akateedzana apfuura. Yava pedyo nekudzikira kwayo kutanga kwaNdira.
Kudzikira kwemari yeIndian rupee kwawedzera
Mari yeIndian rupee yadonhawo kwemavhiki maviri ichienzaniswa nedhora kubva muna Kubvumbi, kudzikira kwe2.12% kusvika musi wa26 Kubvumbi.
Samir, mukuru wezvehupfumi webhangi rehurumende reIndia (Bank of Baroda), akati: "Zvichienderana nedhora rakasimba, mari yemusika uri kubuda isina kusimba, mari yemumusika uri kubuda isina kusimba uye nyaya itsva dziri kukwira, mari yemuIndia inogona kudzikira," VaNalang vakadaro. "Rupee yeIndia inogona kudzikira."
Pamusoro pekuwedzera kwehuwandu hwevanhu vakasimbiswa kuti vane mhosva, Reuters yakataura kuti sarudzo yeIndian Central Bank yekuzvipira kutenga mabhondi akawanda yakawedzera kudzikira kwemari yeIndian rupee.
Kushamisika kwemangwana kwemafuta asina kuchena
India ndiyo nyika yechipiri ine vanhu vakawanda pasi rose uye inonyanya kushandisa simba, yechitatu inotenga mafuta akawanda pasi rose. Kutengeswa kwemafuta asina kucheneswa kwakaramba kuchiderera pakati pekutya kuti denda iri raizokanganisa kudiwa kwesimba muIndia. Mafuture emafuta asina kucheneswa eWTI nefuture emafuta asina kucheneswa eLondon Brent ese akadzikira ne1.5% pa19:25 Beijing nguva yeChitatu. Zvisinei, muongorori wezvemangwana wekuSouth China Yuan Ming anotenda kuti musika wemafuta asina kucheneswa hauna kuderera kuri kuramba kuchiitika, izvo zvinofanirwa kutariswa nemusangano mutsva weOPEC pakupera kwaKubvumbi.
Dhora rakaderedza simba reRMB
Kubva pamaonero emisika yemari yepasi rose, munguva pfupi yapfuura, goho reUS bond radzikira zvishoma, goho remakore gumi radzikira kusvika pa1.5% kubva pakakwirira kupfuura 1.7% pakupera kwaKurume. Dhora radzikirawo zvakare, dhora index radzikira ne2.5% kubva muna Kubvumbi, parizvino riri pa90.8. Mutengo wekutsinhana kwemari yeRMB wakaramba wakasimba, Kubva muna Kubvumbi, yuan yakwira kubva pa6.4.8 kubva pa6.5.7 pakutanga kwemwedzi.
Mushumo weongororo yeCICC wakataura kuti goho reUS bond nedhora reUS rakadzikira zvakare nekuti simba rekusimudzira hupfumi rinogona kunge rakakanganiswa nedenda iri. Kana denda repasi rose rikawedzerazve, saka zvipingamupinyi zvikuru zvehupfumi hwepasi rose hazvina kudzikira, hazvizoone kusimba kukuru kwemabhanga makuru epasi rose, musika unodzokera kupfungwa isati yasvika padanho iri rechikwereti cheUS, uye ucharamba uchiita zvinhu zvine njodzi dzakawanda, kusanganisira masheya nezvinhu. Kana kunetseka nezvekusimbaradzwa kweFed kuchiderera uye chido chenjodzi chikadzoka, dhora rinodzikira zvakare. Panguva imwe chete, zvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika neChina zvichatsigirawo RMB exchange rate kana zvikaramba zvakakwirira munguva pfupi.
Zvisinei, CICC yakataurawo kuti nguva pfupi yapfuura ingori kugadzirisa kupfupi, nekufamba kwenguva, kukwira kwedenda hakuzochinje mutsetse we inflation, maitiro ekukwira kwemitengo yebond yeUS uye dhora rakasimba harina kupera. Kana inflation yeUS yakwira kusvika pane zvaitarisirwa mumwedzi mishoma inotevera, Fed ingangoda kusimba. Huwandu hwevashandi mumisika yakasimukira hwakawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma, uye kana hurumende yaBiden ikasawedzera zvakanyanya kushomeka kwayo kwemari, asi ikatanga kubhadhara mutero kune vapfumi, ipapo kuda njodzi kunogona kudzikira zvakare, zvichisimbisa mitengo yemubereko nedhora reUS pakati nepakati pechikamu chechipiri. Dhora rakasimba richaunza shanduko huru kuzvinhu zvine njodzi, nokudaro zvichitarisana nekushanduka kukuru mumusika webond weChina.
Nguva yekutumira: Chivabvu-06-2021