I-India ibhekene nomjikelezo omusha wokuqubuka kwe-COV ID - 19. Kusukela ngo-Ephreli 22, inani lamacala amasha aqinisekisiwe eNdiya lisalokhu lingaphezu kuka-300,000, lidlula amacala amasha aphezulu kakhulu osukwini olulodwa olubekiwe e-United States. Isamba samacala aqinisekisiwe eNdiya sifinyelele ku-17.3132 million, sesibili ngemuva kwe-United States. Ibhulokhi yesiteshi sikagesi, izixhumi zebhodi le-pcb kuya ebhodini futhi isibukisi esingunxantathu kufanele kuqashelwe.
Njengoba kunesimo sohlobo lwemithi yokugoma, ukuhlukahluka kwegciwane kanye nokuntuleka kwezinsiza zezokwelapha, i-India ingena esimweni esiphuthumayo, futhi izindawo eziningi seziqalile ukuvala idolobha. Kodwa-ke, izinyathelo zokuvimbela ngonyaka odlule zibangele ukwehla okukhulu emnothweni waseNdiya, okubonisa ukukhula kwe-GDP okubi amakota amabili alandelanayo ngonyaka odlule. Uyini umthelela wokuthuthukiswa kobhubhane eNdiya kanye nomnotho womhlaba kulo nyaka? Yiziphi izimboni ezizothinteka yi-China?
Izinyathelo zokuvimba zithinte umnotho
Njengamanje, izingxenye zeNdiya zivaliwe emadolobheni. INew Delhi imemezele ukuvalwa kwesonto elilodwa kusukela ngomhlaka-1 kuya ku-9 Ephreli. Ngesikhathi sokuvinjelwa, izitolo ezinkulu, amabhayisikobho, izindawo zokudlela kanye nezinye izindawo zomphakathi zizohlala zivaliwe. Ezinye izifundazwe eziyishumi nantathu nazo zinqume ukubeka imikhawulo yangempelasonto, noma ukuvala imingcele embalwa, noma ukuvala imingcele. Kulezi, iMaharashtra, emele cishe u-15% we-GDP eNdiya, ivale iningi lamafektri ayo kusukela ngomhlaka-1 kuya ku-4 Ephreli.
Ukukhula kwe-GDP kuyangatshazwa
Ukuvinjelwa kwenezela okubi kakhulu emnothweni waseNdiya osuvele ubuthakathaka. Eqinisweni, ukukhula komnotho waseNdiya kwehle kakhulu ngaphambi kokuqubuka kwalesi sifo, kanti i-Central Bureau of Statistics ikhombisile ukuthi i-India ikhule ngo-4.2% ngonyaka wezimali ka-2019 - 2020 (Ephreli 2019 ~ Mashi 2020), okuphansi okusha kusukela eminyakeni eyi-11.
I-India ivaliwe kusukela ngoMashi kuya kuJuni ngonyaka odlule. Esimweni somnotho saseNdiya, imboni yezinsizakalo ihlanganisa cishe u-60% we-GDP, icishe yamisa umnotho, ukukhula okungekuhle kwenzeke amakota amabili alandelanayo. I-GDP QQ 2 0 2 0 - 2 0 2 1 (Ephreli - Juni 2 0 2 0), ukwehla okubi kakhulu eNdiya kusukela kudatha yayo yezomnotho yekota ngo-1996; I-GDP yaseNdiya yaqhubeka nokuwa ngo-7. 5% kwikota yesibili (Julayi - Septhemba 2020). Q 3 (Okthoba - Disemba 2020), I-GDP eNdiya iqala ukuqalisa ukukhula okuhle, ikhuphuka ngo-0.4%. Noma kunjalo, i-India isalokhu imbi unyaka wonke, Ngokusho kwesibikezelo sakamuva esikhishwe yi-Central Statistics ngoFebhuwari 26, i-India kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule ngo-8% ngonyaka wezimali ka-2020.
Ekuqaleni kuka-Ephreli, i-IMF ikhiphe i-World Economic Outlook yakamuva, eyanikeza isibikezelo sokukhula kwe-India esingu-12.5% ngo-2021, okuyisilinganiso sokukhula esiphezulu somhlaba wonke, esingu-8.4% kanye no-6% emhlabeni jikelele. I-IMF inikeze isizathu sokuthi ukululama kwakunamandla kunalokho obekulindelwe ekuqaleni ngemuva kwamanye amazwe amakhulu njenge-India. Kodwa-ke, ezinye izazi zezomnotho zikholelwa ukuthi izinga lokukhula alikwazi ukufinyelelwa ngisho nangokusekelwe esisekelweni esiphansi sonyaka odlule. I-IMF iphinde iveze ukungaqiniseki okukhulu esikhathini esizayo, futhi isimo somnotho singawohloka kakhulu uma uhlobo olusha olumelana naso ludonsela ubhubhane phambili.
Umthelela ekuthunyelweni kwamanye amazwe kanye nezimboni zaseShayina
UMnyango Wezangaphandle waseShayina uthe uzimisele ukunikeza usizo oludingekayo eNdiya ukulawula ubhubhane.
Isabelo sokuthumela ngaphandle saseShayina singagcinwa
Emnothweni waseShayina, ubhubhane lwaseNdiya luphinde lulethe amathuba athile. UChen Jianheng, umhlaziyi kwa-CICC, uthe ukubuya kwezimakethe ezisafufusa kungagcina isabelo seShayina sokuthumela kwamanye amazwe isikhathi esithile. Uma ukuqubuka kwamazwe afana ne-India, iBrazil kanye ne-South-East Asia kubuya futhi, ukukhiqizwa kwezimboni kanye nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kula mazwe kungathinteka, ngaleyo ndlela kuzuze amazwe alawula kangcono ubhubhane. Isibonelo, kusukela ngonyaka odlule, iShayina ibilokhu ingenye yamazwe amahle kakhulu emhlabeni ukulawula ubhubhane, kanti emazweni aseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, iVietnam nayo ilawule ubhubhane kangcono, okuholele ezingeni lokukhula kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe okungcono kakhulu eShayina naseVietnam kunamanye amazwe aseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia.
Ngokwezibalo ze-WTO, yiShayina neVietnam kuphela ezifinyelele ukukhula okuhle ngo-2020, lapho ukuthunyelwa kweChina kwamanye amazwe kukhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-3.6, kodwa iNingizimu Korea, iNdiya, i-Indonesia, iPhilippines, iBrazil neMexico konke kwehle ngo-2020 uma kuqhathaniswa no-2019, ikakhulukazi iNdiya, lapho ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kwehle kakhulu ngamaphesenti angu-14.8.
Ukudluliselwa okungenzeka kwasekhaya kwama-oda e-API
Ngokombono wochungechunge lwezimboni zomhlaba wonke, umthelela omkhulu uhlanganisa i-API, imboni yezindwangu kanye neminye imikhakha. I-India ingumhlinzeki oyinhloko wemakethe ye-API yomhlaba wonke, futhi ukuqubuka kwalesi sifo kunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwe-API yaseNdiya, kanye nemikhawulo yokuhamba kwamanye amazwe e-India, kuzoholela esikhaleni sesikhashana emakethe ye-API yomhlaba wonke. Njengomuthi odingekayo, isidingo se-API siqinile, futhi ngaphansi kwesikhala sokuhlinzekwa nesidingo, intengo ye-API kulindeleke ukuthi ihlale iphezulu.
Umhlaziyi we-Chuan Cai Securities uChen Jian ukhombe ukuthi iShayina neNdiya zombili zingamazwe ahlinzeka ngemithi eluhlaza, kungenzeka ukuthi kudluliselwe ama-oda. Ukunikezwa kwezinto zokusetshenziswa zamanje eShayina kubalelwa ku-9% womhlaba kanye no-12% eNdiya. Ekulungiseleleni i-API, ihlukaniswe kakhulu nge-bulk API, i-characteristic API kanye ne-patent API. Njengamanje, iShayina ithumela ngaphandle inani elikhulu lezinto zokusetshenziswa, ithatha indawo ephezulu yochungechunge lwezimboni, ikakhulukazi ihlinzeka ngo-68% wezinto zokusetshenziswa ezinkulu emakethe yaseNdiya, kuyilapho iNdiya iyizinto zokusetshenziswa eziyinhloko, ithatha indawo ephakathi yochungechunge lwezimboni. Ngokombono womkhiqizo, izidakamizwa zokusetshenziswa eziyinhloko eNdiya yi-anti-infection, cardiovascular, central nervous system, respiratory field, lapho isilinganiso sokusetshenziswa kwemithi kanye ne-cardiovascular singaphezu kuka-50. Njengamanje, iShayina inokuqongelela okuthile emikhakheni ehlobene, amandla okukhiqiza nawo anele, eNdiya amandla okukhiqiza imithi eluhlaza ayavinjelwa, kulindeleke ukuthi ama-oda amaningi azodluliselwa emabhizinisini e-API asekhaya, ahlobene ne-API asekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi azuze.
Eqinisweni, intengo yamasheya ezinkampani ze-API ezihlobene ne-A ithintwe ubhubhane lwaseNdiya futhi inyukile. Mhla zingama-26 kuMbasa, amasheya omqondo we-API anyukile, iMinova, imboni yezemithi yaseHuahai, umkhawulo wokuhweba wemboni yezemithi ejwayelekile, phakathi kwawo iMinova ibilokhu inezinsuku ezintathu zokuhweba ezilandelanayo. Imboni yezemithi yaseTonghe yake yakhuphuka ngaphezu kwe-15. Ngaphezu kwalokho, imithi yamakhemikhali, imijovo yezinto eziphilayo, amadivayisi ezokwelapha kanye nezinye izinhlayiya ezihlobene nazo zakhuphuka.
Isazi senkampani yezokwelapha yamazwe ngamazwe sithe iningi lemikhiqizo yayo yayiyizinto eziphilayo, ezivutshelwe ngamadivayisi okusabela kwezinto eziphilayo, hhayi izidakamizwa zamakhemikhali, ngakho-ke ayithinteki kakhulu ubhubhane lwaseNdiya. Kumabhizinisi emithi omhlaba wonke, kuncike kakhulu endaweni yawo ehlobene nochungechunge lwezimboni. Uma izinto zokusetshenziswa lapho amabhizinisi emithi avela khona eNdiya, zizothinteka, futhi uma iyiphi ihlangana nesakhiwo somugqa wokukhiqiza waseNdiya, kuhle. Iningi lama-API aseNdiya lithumela kwamanye amazwe eYurophu nase-United States, futhi ambalwa kuphela eShayina, ngakho-ke kuyithuba lezinkampani zamakhemikhali zasekhaya.
Izinzuzo zendwangu noma zesikhashana
I-India futhi ingumkhiqizi omkhulu kakotini emhlabeni, imboni yezindwangu yasekhaya nayo ingase ibe nenzuzo esikhathini esifushane. Umhlaziyi we-Huaxi Securities uTang Shuangshuang ukhombe ukuthi amandla entambo yaseNdiya angaphezulu kwamaphesenti angama-20 omhlaba, athinteke ubhubhane lwaseNdiya, ikusasa likakotini likhuphuke ngamaphesenti ama-3 ngesonto eledlule, inkomba yentambo yaseShayina i-C32S nayo ikhuphuke.
Izimakethe zamasheya eNdiya zithintekile
Ngokombono wemakethe yezezimali, ubhubhane lubangele imakethe yamasheya yaseNdiya, imakethe yokushintshaniswa kwemali yangaphandle iyathinteka. Inkomba ye-SENSEX30 yaseNdiya yehle ngamaphesenti angu-2.27 kusukela ngo-Ephreli, yehle ngamaphesenti angu-0.91 ngesonto eledlule emasontweni amathathu alandelanayo edlule. Icishe ibe phansi ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari.
Ukwehla kwe-rupee yaseNdiya kuye kwanda
I-rupee yaseNdiya iphinde yehla amasonto amabili uma iqhathaniswa nedola kusukela ngo-Ephreli, ukwehla okuhlangene okungu-2.12% kusukela ngomhlaka-26 Ephreli.
Isazi sezomnotho esikhulu sebhange likahulumeni laseNdiya i-baroda bank (Bank of Baroda) uSamir. "Ngenxa yesimo sedola elinamandla, izimali zemakethe ezisafufusa ezibuthakathaka, ukungena okubuthakathaka kwezimali zemakethe ezisafufusa kanye namacala amasha akhulayo, i-rupee yaseNdiya cishe izokwehla," kusho uMnu. Nalang. "I-rupee yaseNdiya cishe izokwehla"
Ngaphezu kokwanda kwenani lamacala aqinisekisiwe, i-Reuters iphawule ukuthi isinqumo seBhange Elikhulu laseNdiya sokuzibophezela ekuthengeni inani elikhulu lamabhondi senze kwaba nzima kakhulu ukwehla kwe-rupee yaseNdiya.
Ukushaqeka kwekusasa likawoyela ongahluziwe
I-India iyizwe lesibili elinabantu abaningi emhlabeni kanye nomthengi wamandla oyinhloko, iyindawo yesithathu enkulu yokungenisa uwoyela emhlabeni. Ikusasa likawoyela ongahluziwe liqhubekile nomkhuba wokwehla phakathi kokwesaba ukuthi ubhubhane luzolimaza isidingo samandla e-India. Ikusasa likawoyela ongahluziwe we-WTI kanye nekusasa likawoyela ongahluziwe waseLondon Brent konke kwehle cishe ngo-1.5% cishe ngo-19:25 ngesikhathi saseBeijing ngoLwesithathu. Kodwa-ke, umcwaningi wekusasa waseNingizimu China uYuan Ming ukholelwa ukuthi imakethe kawoyela ongahluziwe ayinawo umkhuba wokwehla okuqhubekayo, okudingeka unake umhlangano omusha we-OPEC ekupheleni kuka-Ephreli.
Idola lenze buthaka amandla e-RMB
Ngokombono wezimakethe zezimali zomhlaba wonke, Muva nje, isivuno sebhondi yase-US sehle kancane, isivuno seminyaka eyi-10 sehle saya ku-1.5% sisuka phezulu ngaphezu kuka-1.7% ngasekupheleni kukaMashi. Idola nalo liye lancipha futhi, Inkomba yedola yehle cishe ngo-2.5% kusukela ngo-Ephreli, Njengamanje cishe ku-90.8. Izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB lihlale liqinile, Kusukela ngo-Ephreli, i-yuan ikhuphuke isuka cishe ku-6.48 isuka cishe ku-6.57 ekuqaleni kwenyanga.
Umbiko wocwaningo lwe-CICC ukhombe ukuthi isivuno sebhondi yase-US kanye nedola lase-US sehle futhi ngoba umfutho wokululama komnotho ungase uthinteke yilolu bhubhane. Uma ubhubhane womhlaba wonke ubuye wabuya, khona-ke imingcele eyinhloko yomnotho womhlaba ayizange yehle, ngeke ibone ukuqina okukhulu kwamabhange amakhulu omhlaba, imakethe ibuyela esimweni sayo ngaphambi kwalesi siwombe samazinga esikweletu sase-US, futhi iqhubeke nokwenza izimpahla ezinobungozi obuningi, okuhlanganisa amasheya nezimpahla. Lapho ukukhathazeka ngokuqina kwe-Fed kuncipha futhi isifiso sobungozi sibuya, idola liyawa. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwe-China kuzophinde kusekele ngokwengxenye izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB uma lihlala liphezulu esikhathini esifushane.
Kodwa-ke, i-CICC iphinde yaveza ukuthi lesi sikhathi samuva nje singukulungiswa okufushane, ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ukubuya kobhubhane ngeke kushintshe umugqa wokwehla kwamandla emali, ukuthambekela kokwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo yebhondi yase-US kanye nedola eliqinile akukapheli. Uma ukwehla kwamandla emali yase-US kukhuphukela kulokho okulindelwe ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezizayo, i-Fed kungadingeka iqine. Izinga lokubamba iqhaza kwabasebenzi ezimakethe ezithuthukile liye lakhuphuka kancane kancane, futhi uma uhulumeni waseBiden engasakhulisi kakhulu ukuntuleka kwemali yakhe, kodwa eqala ukukhokhisa intela kwabacebile, khona-ke isifiso sobungozi singase sehle futhi, kuqiniswe amazinga enzalo kanye nedola lase-US engxenyeni ephakathi neyesibili. Idola eliqinile lizoletha uguquko lwezimpahla ezinobungozi, ngaleyo ndlela libhekane noguquko emakethe yebhondi yase-China.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Meyi-06-2021