I-India ijongene nomjikelo omtsha wokuqhambuka kwe-COV ID - 19. Ukusukela nge-22 ka-Epreli, inani lamatyala amatsha aqinisekisiweyo eIndiya lihlale lingaphezulu kwe-300, 000, liphula amatyala amatsha aphezulu ngosuku olunye olubekiweyo e-United States. Amatyala aqinisekisiweyo e-India afikelele kwi-17.3132 yezigidi, elesibini emva kwe-United States. Ibhloko yesiphelo sombane, izihlanganisi zebhodi ye-pcb ukuya kwibhodi kwaye isibonisi senxantathu kufuneka kuqatshelwe.
Ngenxa yemeko yohlobo lwegonyo, ukwahluka kweentsholongwane kunye nokunqongophala kwezixhobo zonyango, iIndiya ikwimeko yongxamiseko, kwaye iindawo ezininzi ziqalile ukuvala isixeko. Nangona kunjalo, amanyathelo okuthintela kunyaka ophelileyo abangele ukwehla okukhulu kuqoqosho lwaseIndiya, ebonisa ukukhula okungalunganga kweGDP kwiikota ezimbini ezilandelelanayo kunyaka ophelileyo. Iyintoni impembelelo yokunyuka kobhubhane eIndiya nakuqoqosho lwehlabathi kulo nyaka? Ngawaphi amashishini aza kuchaphazeleka yiTshayina?
Amanyathelo okuthintela uqoqosho achaphazele uqoqosho
Okwangoku, iindawo ezithile zaseIndiya zivaliwe ezixekweni. INew Delhi ibhengeze ukuvalwa kweveki enye ukususela ngomhla woku-1 ukuya ku-9 ku-Epreli. Ngexesha lokuvalwa, iivenkile ezinkulu, iicinema, iindawo zokutyela kunye nezinye iindawo zikawonke-wonke ziya kuhlala zivaliwe. Amanye amazwe alishumi elinesithathu nawo agqibe ekubeni abeke imiqathango yeempelaveki, okanye anciphise ukuvalwa kwezindlu. Kula mazwe, iMaharashtra, emele phantse i-15% ye-GDP eIndiya, ivale uninzi lweefektri zayo ukusukela ngomhla woku-1 ukuya ku-4 ku-Epreli.
Ukukhula kwe-GDP kuyathandabuzeka
Ukuvalelwa koqoqosho kongezelele kakhulu kuqoqosho lwaseIndiya olwalusele lubuthathaka. Enyanisweni, ukukhula koqoqosho lwaseIndiya kwakunciphile kakhulu ngaphambi kokuba kuqhambuke ubhubhane, kwaye iCentral Bureau of Statistics ibonise ukuba iIndiya ikhule nge-4.2% kunyaka-mali ka-2019 - 2020 (Aprili 2019 ~ Matshi 2020), ukwehla okutsha ukusukela kwiminyaka eli-11.
I-India ivaliwe ukususela ngoMatshi ukuya kuJuni kunyaka ophelileyo. Kwisakhiwo soqoqosho lwaseIndiya, ishishini leenkonzo limalunga ne-6 0% ye-GDP, liphantse lamisa uqoqosho, ukukhula okungalunganga kwenzeke kwiikota ezimbini ezilandelelanayo. I-GDP QQ 2 0 2 0 - 2 0 2 1 (Epreli - Juni 2 0 2 0), ukwehla okubi kakhulu eIndiya ukusukela kwidatha yayo yekota yoqoqosho ngo-1996; I-GDP yaseIndiya iqhubekile nokuhla nge-7. I-5% kwikota yesibini (Julayi - Septemba 2 0 2 0) .Q 3 (Okthobha - Disemba 2 0 2 0) ,I-GDP eIndiya iqala ukuqalisa ukukhula okuhle, inyuka nge-0.4% .Nangona kunjalo, iIndiya ihlala imbi unyaka wonke ,Ngokwesibikezelo samva nje esikhutshwe yiCentral Statistics ngoFebruwari 2 6 , iIndiya kulindeleke ukuba ikhule nge- - 8 % kwi-FY 2 0 2 0 - 2 0 2 1 .
Ekuqaleni kuka-Epreli, i-IMF ikhuphe ingxelo yamva nje yeHlabathi yoQoqosho, eyanika uqikelelo lokukhula kwe-India lwe-12.5% kwi-2021, oluyeyona nqanaba liphezulu lokukhula kwehlabathi, i-8.4% kunye ne-6% kwihlabathi liphela. I-IMF inike isizathu sokuba ukubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo kwakunamandla kunokuba bekulindelwe ekuqaleni emva kwamanye amazwe amakhulu afana ne-India. Nangona kunjalo, ezinye iingcali zezoqoqosho zikholelwa ukuba izinga lokukhula alinakufikelelwa nangona kusekwe kwisiseko esiphantsi sonyaka ophelileyo. I-IMF ikwabonisa ukungaqiniseki okukhulu kwixesha elizayo, kwaye imeko yezoqoqosho inokuwohloka kakhulu ukuba uhlobo olutsha oluchasayo lubangela ukuba ubhubhane ube mandundu.
Impembelelo kwiimpahla ezithunyelwa ngaphandle kunye namashishini aseTshayina
Umphathiswa wezangaphandle waseTshayina uthe uzimisele ukubonelela ngenkxaso efunekayo kunye nokunceda iIndiya ukulawula ubhubhane.
Isabelo sokuthumela ngaphandle saseTshayina sinokugcinwa
Kuqoqosho lwaseTshayina, ubhubhane waseIndiya uzisa namathuba athile. UChen Jianheng, umhlalutyi kwiCICC, uthe ukubuya kwakhona kwiimarike ezisakhulayo kunokugcina isabelo seTshayina sokuthumela ngaphandle okwethutyana. Ukuba ubhubhane kumazwe afana neIndiya, iBrazil kunye neSouth-East Asia uphinda ubuye kwakhona, imveliso yemizi-mveliso kunye nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kula mazwe kunokuchaphazeleka, ngaloo ndlela kuzuze amazwe anolawulo olungcono lobhubhane. Umzekelo, ukusukela kunyaka ophelileyo, iTshayina ibilelinye lamazwe angcono kwihlabathi ukulawula ubhubhane, kwaye kumazwe aseMzantsi-mpuma Asia, iVietnam nayo ilawule ubhubhane ngcono, nto leyo ekhokelele kwizinga lokukhula kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe elingcono kakhulu eTshayina naseVietnam kunamanye amazwe aseMzantsi-mpuma Asia.
Ngokwezibalo ze-WTO, yiChina neVietnam kuphela ezifikelele ekukhuleni okuhle ngo-2020, apho ukuthunyelwa kwempahla eTshayina kunyuke nge-3.6%, kodwa uMzantsi Korea, iIndiya, iIndonesia, iiPhilippines, iBrazil neMexico zonke zehla ngo-2020 xa kuthelekiswa nowama-2019, ingakumbi iIndiya, apho ukuthunyelwa kwempahla eTshayina kwehle kakhulu nge-14.8%.
Ukudluliselwa okunokwenzeka kwemiyalelo ye-API ngaphakathi
Ngokwembono yecandelo lezemizi-mveliso yehlabathi, impembelelo enkulu ibandakanya i-API, imboni yelaphu kunye nezinye iinkalo. I-India ngumthengisi oyintloko wemarike ye-API yehlabathi, kwaye ubhubhane luthintela imveliso ye-API yaseIndiya, kunye nemingcele yokuhamba kwamanye amazwe eIndiya, kuya kukhokelela kumsantsa wexesha elifutshane kwimarike ye-API yehlabathi. Njengeyeza eliyimfuneko, imfuno ye-API iqinile, kwaye phantsi komsantsa wokubonelela kunye nemfuno, ixabiso le-API kulindeleke ukuba lihlale liphezulu.
Umhlalutyi weChuan Cai Securities uChen Jian ubonise ukuba iTshayina neIndiya zombini zingamazwe anikezela ngamayeza aluhlaza, kukho ithuba lokudluliselwa kwee-odolo. Ukunikezelwa kwezinto eziluhlaza eTshayina kumalunga ne-9% yehlabathi kunye ne-12% eIndiya. Ekulungiseleleni i-API, yahlulwe ngokubanzi kwi-API enkulu, i-API yeempawu kunye ne-API yelungelo lomenzi. Okwangoku, iTshayina ithumela ngaphandle inani elikhulu lezinto eziluhlaza, ithatha indawo ephezulu yekhonkco lemizi-mveliso, ikakhulu ibonelela nge-68% yezixhobo eziluhlaza kwimarike yaseIndiya, ngelixa iIndiya iyeyona nto iphambili, ithatha indawo ephakathi yekhonkco lemizi-mveliso. Ngokwembono yemveliso, amayeza aluhlaza aphambili eIndiya ngamayeza alwa nosulelo, isifo sentliziyo, inkqubo yemithambo-luvo ephakathi, intsimi yokuphefumla, apho umlinganiselo wokulwa nosulelo kunye nentliziyo ungaphezulu kwama-50. Okwangoku, iTshayina inokuqokelelana okuthile kwiindawo ezinxulumene noko, amandla emveliso nawo anele, eIndiya amandla emveliso yamayeza aluhlaza ayathintelwa, kulindeleke ukuba ii-odolo ezingaphezulu ziya kudluliselwa kumashishini e-API asekhaya, anxulumene namakhaya kulindeleke ukuba azuze.
Enyanisweni, ixabiso lesabelo seenkampani ze-API ezinxulumene ne-A lichaphazeleke yibhubhane yaseIndiya kwaye linyukile. Nge-26 ka-Epreli, amasheya e-API anyukile, iMinova, imboni yamayeza eHuahai, umda wokurhweba kwimboni yamayeza eqhelekileyo, phakathi kwayo iMinova ibineentsuku ezintathu zorhwebo ezilandelelanayo. Imboni yamayeza eTonghe yakha yanyuka ngaphezulu kwe-15. Ukongeza, amayeza ekhemikhali, izitofu zebhayoloji, izixhobo zonyango kunye nezinye iipleyiti ezinxulumene nazo zinyukile.
Isazinzulu senkampani yamayeza yamazwe ngamazwe sithe uninzi lweemveliso zayo zizinto eziphilayo, zivundiswe ngezixhobo zokusabela kwebhayoloji, kungekhona amayeza eekhemikhali, kwaye ngenxa yoko azichaphazeleki kangako yibhubhane yaseIndiya. Kumashishini amachiza ehlabathi, oku kuxhomekeke kakhulu kwindawo yawo kwikhonkco lemizi-mveliso. Ukuba izinto eziluhlaza apho amashishini amachiza avela eIndiya kuphela, ziya kuchaphazeleka, kwaye ukuba leliphi lihambelana nolwakhiwo lomgca wemveliso waseIndiya, kulungile. Uninzi lwee-API zaseIndiya zithumela eYurophu nase-United States, kwaye zimbalwa kuphela eTshayina, ngoko ke lithuba kwiinkampani zasekhaya zeekhemikhali.
Iinzuzo zelaphu okanye zexesha elifutshane
I-India ikwangumvelisi omkhulu wekotoni kwihlabathi, ishishini lempahla yasekhaya linokuba lihle kwixesha elifutshane. Umhlalutyi we-Huaxi Securities uTang Shuangshuang ubonise ukuba amandla eentambo zaseIndiya angaphezulu kwama-20 ekhulwini lehlabathi, achaphazeleke yibhubhane yaseIndiya, ikamva lekotoni linyuke nge-3 ekhulwini kwiveki ephelileyo, isalathisi se-C32S yeentambo zaseTshayina naso sinyuke.
Iimarike zezabelo eIndiya zichaphazelekile
Ngokwembono yemarike yezemali, ubhubhane ubangele imarike yesitokhwe yaseIndiya, imarike yotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle iyachaphazeleka. Isalathisi se-SENSEX30 saseIndiya sehle nge-2.27% ukusukela ngo-Epreli, sehla nge-0.91% kwiveki ephelileyo kwiiveki ezintathu ezilandelelanayo. Sisondele kwixabiso laso eliphantsi ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari.
Isantya sokuhla kwe-rupee yaseIndiya siye sanda
I-rupee yaseIndiya iwile kwiiveki ezimbini xa ithelekiswa nedola ukusukela ngo-Epreli, ukwehla okudibeneyo kwe-2.12% ukusukela nge-26 ka-Epreli.
Ingcali yezoqoqosho yaseIndiya ibhanki yesizwe iBank of Baroda uSamir. "Ngenxa yedola enamandla, iimali zemarike ezisakhulayo ezibuthathaka, ukungena okubuthathaka kweemali zemarike ezisakhulayo kunye namatyala amatsha akhulayo, irupee yaseIndiya isenokuhla ixabiso," utshilo uMnu. Nalang. "Irupee yaseIndiya isenoku"
Ukongeza kwinani elikhulayo lamatyala aqinisekisiweyo, iReuters iphawule ukuba isigqibo seBhanki ePhakathi yaseIndiya sokuzibophelela ekuthengeni inani elikhulu leebhondi siye sayenza mandundu imeko yokuhla kwerupee yaseIndiya.
Uloyiko lwekamva lweoyile ekrwada
I-India lilizwe lesibini elinabantu abaninzi emhlabeni kwaye lisebenzisa amandla amakhulu, lilizwe lesithathu elingenisa ioyile ngobuninzi kwihlabathi. I-oyile ekrwada iyaqhubeka nokuhla phakathi koloyiko lokuba ubhubhane uza konakalisa imfuno yamandla e-India. I-oyile ekrwada ye-WTI kunye ne-oyile ekrwada ye-Brent yaseLondon zonke zehle malunga ne-1.5% malunga ne-19:25 ngexesha laseBeijing ngoLwesithathu. Nangona kunjalo, umphandi we-oyile ekrwada eMzantsi China uYuan Ming ukholelwa ukuba imakethi yeoyile ekrwada ayinayo inkqubela eqhubekayo yokuhla, ekufuneka inike ingqalelo kwintlanganiso entsha ye-OPEC ekupheleni kuka-Epreli.
Idola yenze buthathaka i-RMB enamandla
Ngokwembono yeemarike zemali zehlabathi, Kutshanje, isivuno sebhondi yaseMelika sehle kancinci, isivuno seminyaka eli-10 sehle saya kwi-1.5% ukusuka kwi-1.7% ephezulu ekupheleni kukaMatshi. Idola nayo iye yabuthathaka kwakhona, isalathisi sedola sehle malunga ne-2.5% ukusukela ngo-Epreli, okwangoku sijikeleze kwi-90.8. Izinga lokutshintshiselana nge-RMB lihlale liqinile, Ukusukela ngo-Epreli, i-yuan inyuke ukusuka kwi-6.4.8 ukusuka kwi-6.5.7 ekuqaleni kwenyanga.
Ingxelo yophando lweCICC ibonise ukuba isivuno sebhondi yaseMelika kunye nedola yaseMelika sehle kwakhona kuba amandla okubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo kwezoqoqosho anokuthi achaphazeleke yibhubhane. Ukuba ubhubhane wehlabathi uphinde wabuya, ngoko imida ephambili yoqoqosho lwehlabathi ayiphelanga, ayizukubona ukuqina okukhulu kweebhanki eziphambili zehlabathi, imakethi ibuyela kwingqiqo ngaphambi kwalo mjikelo wamanani etyala laseMelika, kwaye iqhubeke nokwenza iiasethi ezinomngcipheko omninzi, kubandakanya amasheya kunye neempahla. Xa amaxhala malunga nokuqina kweFed ebuthathaka kwaye umdla womngcipheko ubuyela, idola iyawa. Kwangaxeshanye, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kweTshayina kuya kuxhasa ngokuyinxenye izinga lokutshintshiselana kwe-RMB xa zihlala ziphezulu kwixesha elifutshane.
Nangona kunjalo, i-CICC ikwabonise ukuba eli xesha lakutshanje lifutshane nje lokulungiswa, ekuhambeni kwexesha, ukubuya kobhubhane akuyi kutshintsha umgca wokunyuka kwamaxabiso, umkhwa wokunyuka kwamaxabiso eebhondi zase-US kunye nedola enamandla ayikapheli. Nje ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-US kunyuke ukuya kulindelo kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ezizayo, i-Fed inokufuna ukuqina. Amanani okubandakanyeka kwabasebenzi kwiimarike eziphuhlileyo abuyele kancinci kancinci, kwaye ukuba urhulumente kaBiden akasayandisi kakhulu i-financial deficit yakhe, kodwa uqala ukuhlawula irhafu kubantu abazizityebi, ngoko ke ukuthanda umngcipheko kunokwehla kwakhona, kuqinise amazinga enzala kunye nedola yaseMelika kwikota ephakathi neyesibini. Idola enamandla iya kuzisa utshintsho kwiimpahla zomngcipheko, ngaloo ndlela ijongene notshintsho kwimarike yeebhondi yaseTshayina.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Meyi-06-2021