Ubuhinde burimo guhura n'icyorezo gishya cya COV ID - 1 9. Kuva ku ya 2 Mata, umubare w'abanduye bashya bemewe mu Buhinde wakomeje kuba hejuru ya 3 0 0 , 0 0 0 , urenga umubare munini w'abanduye bashya mu munsi umwe washyizweho muri Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika. Abanduye bose bemewe mu Buhinde bageze kuri miliyoni 1 7.3 1 3 2, bakaba ari aba kabiri nyuma ya Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika. Ibyuma by'amashanyarazi bya terminale, ibihuza urubuga rwa PCB n'urundi na akagarurarumuri ka mpandeshatu bigomba kwitabwaho.
Bitewe n'ikibazo cy'urukingo, ihindagurika rya virusi n'ibura ry'ibikoresho by'ubuvuzi, Ubuhinde bwinjiye mu bihe by'ibiza, kandi ahantu henshi hatangiye gufunga umujyi. Ariko, ingamba zo guhagarika ibikorwa by'umwaka ushize zateje ibibazo bikomeye ku bukungu bw'Ubuhinde, bigaragaza ko umusaruro w'igihugu wazamutse nabi mu bihembwe bibiri byikurikiranya umwaka ushize. Ingaruka z'icyorezo mu Buhinde no ku bukungu bw'isi muri uyu mwaka ni izihe? Ni izihe nganda Ubushinwa buzagiraho ingaruka?
Ingamba zo guhagarika ubukungu zagize ingaruka ku bukungu
Kugeza ubu, ibice bimwe na bimwe by'Ubuhinde byafunzwe mu mijyi. New Delhi yatangaje ko hagiye gufungwa icyumweru kimwe guhera ku ya 1 Mata . Mu gihe cyo gufunga, amaduka menshi, sinema, resitora n'ahandi hantu hahurira abantu benshi bizakomeza gufungwa. Izindi leta cumi na eshatu nazo zafashe icyemezo cyo gushyiraho amategeko yo guhagarika mu mpera z'icyumweru, cyangwa gufunga bike. Muri izi leta, Maharashtra, ihagarariye hafi 15% by'umusaruro rusange mu Buhinde, yafunze inganda zayo nyinshi kuva ku ya 1 Mata .
Izamuka ry'umusaruro rusange w'igihugu rirakemangwa
Uku guhagarika ubukungu bw’u Buhinde byari bikomeje kuba bibi. Mu by’ukuri, iterambere ry’ubukungu bw’u Buhinde ryari ryaragabanutse cyane mbere y’icyorezo, kandi Ikigo Gishinzwe Ibarurishamibare cyagaragaje ko u Buhinde bwiyongereyeho 4.2% mu mwaka w’ingengo y’imari wa 2019 - 2020 (Mata 2019 ~ Werurwe 2020), iri hasi rishya kuva mu myaka 11 ishize.
Ubuhinde bwafunzwe kuva muri Werurwe kugeza Kamena umwaka ushize. Mu miterere y'ubukungu bw'Ubuhinde, inganda za serivisi zigize hafi 6 0% by'umusaruro rusange w'igihugu (GDP), hafi ya byose byahagaritse ubukungu, habayeho izamuka ribi mu bihembwe bibiri byikurikiranya. GDP QQ 2 0 2 0 - 2 0 2 1 (Mata - Kamena 2 0 2 0), igabanuka ribi cyane mu Buhinde kuva aho amakuru y'ubukungu bwa buri gihembwe yatanzwe mu 1996; GDP y'Ubuhinde yakomeje kugabanukaho 7. 5% mu gihembwe cya kabiri (Nyakanga - Nzeri 2 0 2 0). Q 3 (Ukwakira - Ukuboza 2 0 2 0), Umusaruro rusange w’igihugu mu Buhinde utangiye kongera kuzamuka neza, wiyongeraho 0.4%. Nubwo bimeze bityo, Ubuhinde bukomeje kuba bubi mu mwaka wose, Nk’uko byatangajwe n’ibarurishamibare ryo ku ya 2 6 Gashyantare, biteganijwe ko Ubuhinde buziyongeraho - 8% ku mwaka w’ingengo y’imari 2 0 2 0 - 2 0 2 1.
Mu ntangiriro za Mata, IMF yasohoye raporo nshya y’ubukungu bw’isi, yahishuye ko Ubuhinde bwari buteganijwe kuzamuka kwa 12.5% kuri 20.21, ikaba ari yo yari ifite igipimo cyo hejuru cy’ubwiyongere bw’ubukungu ku isi, 8.4% na 6% ku isi yose. IMF yatanze impamvu y’uko kwiyubaka kwari gukomeye kurusha uko byari byitezwe mbere nyuma y’ibihugu bimwe na bimwe bikomeye nk’Ubuhinde. Ariko, bamwe mu bahanga mu by’ubukungu bemeza ko igipimo cy’ubwiyongere kidashobora kugerwaho hashingiwe ku gipimo gito cy’umwaka ushize. IMF kandi igaragaza ko hari ibintu bitazwi neza mu gihe kizaza, kandi ko ubukungu bushobora kuzamba cyane mu gihe habayeho ikibazo gishya cyo guhangana n’icyorezo cyarushijeho kwiyongera.
Ingaruka ku byoherezwa mu mahanga n'inganda by'Ubushinwa
Minisiteri y'ububanyi n'amahanga y'Ubushinwa yavuze ko yiteguye gutanga inkunga ikenewe no gufasha Ubuhinde mu kurwanya icyorezo.
Umugabane w'ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga by'Ubushinwa ushobora kugumaho
Ku bukungu bw'Ubushinwa, icyorezo cy'Ubuhinde nacyo kizana amahirwe amwe. Chen Jianheng, umusesenguzi muri CICC, yavuze ko kwiyongera kw'isoko ririmo kuzamuka bishobora gutuma umugabane w'Ubushinwa woherezwa mu mahanga ugumana igihe runaka. Niba icyorezo mu bihugu nk'Ubuhinde, Burezili na Aziya y'Amajyepfo y'Uburasirazuba cyongeye kugaruka, umusaruro w'inganda n'ibyoherezwa mu mahanga muri ibi bihugu bishobora kugira ingaruka, bityo bigafasha ibihugu bifite uburyo bwo kugenzura neza icyorezo. Urugero, kuva umwaka ushize, Ubushinwa bwabaye kimwe mu bihugu byiza ku isi mu kugenzura icyorezo, kandi mu bihugu byo muri Aziya y'Amajyepfo y'Uburasirazuba, Vietnam nayo yagenzuye icyorezo neza, byatumye Ubushinwa na Vietnam bizamuka neza kurusha ibindi bihugu byo muri Aziya y'Amajyepfo y'Uburasirazuba.
Dukurikije imibare ya WTO, Ubushinwa na Vietnam ni byo byonyine byazamutse neza mu 2020, aho ibyoherezwa mu mahanga by’Ubushinwa byiyongereyeho 3.6 ku ijana, ariko Koreya y’Epfo, Ubuhinde, Indoneziya, Filipine, Brezili na Megizike byose byaragabanutse mu 2020 ugereranije no mu 2019, cyane cyane Ubuhinde, aho ibyoherezwa mu mahanga byagabanutseho cyane ku kigero cya 14.8 ku ijana.
Kohereza amabwiriza ya API mu gihugu bishoboka
Ukurikije uruhererekane rw'inganda ku isi, ingaruka zikomeye zirimo API, inganda z'imyenda n'izindi nzego. Ubuhinde ni bwo butanga isoko rya API ku isi, kandi icyorezo kibuza Ubuhinde gukora API, hamwe n'ibindi bihugu bibuza ingendo mu Buhinde, bizatuma habaho icyuho cy'igihe gito ku isoko rya API ku isi. Nk'umuti ukenewe, API ikenewe ni nyinshi, kandi munsi y'icyuho cy'ibitangwa n'ibikenewe, igiciro cya API cyitezweho gukomeza kuba hejuru.
Umusesenguzi wa Chuan Cai Securities, Chen Jian, yagaragaje ko Ubushinwa n'Ubuhinde byombi ari ibihugu bitanga imiti, hari amahirwe yo kohereza ibicuruzwa. Ibikoresho fatizo bitangwa ubu mu Bushinwa bingana na 9% by'isi na 12% mu Buhinde. Mu gutegura API, bigabanyijemo ibice byinshi bya API, API isanzwe na API y'ipatanti. Kuri ubu, Ubushinwa bwohereza hanze ibikoresho byinshi fatizo, byiganjemo uruhererekane rw'inganda, ahanini bitanga 68% by'ibikoresho fatizo byinshi ku isoko ry'Ubuhinde, mu gihe Ubuhinde ari bwo bikoresho fatizo by'ingenzi, byiganjemo hagati mu ruhererekane rw'inganda. Ukurikije uko ibicuruzwa bitangwa, imiti fatizo y'ingenzi mu Buhinde ni imiti irwanya ubwandu, indwara z'umutima, uturemangingo tw'imitsi, ubuhumekero, aho irwanya ubwandu n'indwara z'umutima birenga 50. Kuri ubu, Ubushinwa bufite ubwinshi mu nzego zijyanye nabyo, ubushobozi bwo gukora nabwo burahagije, mu Buhinde ubushobozi bwo gukora imiti fatizo burahagaze, biteganijwe ko amabwiriza menshi azoherezwa mu bigo bikorera imbere mu gihugu, bifitanye isano na API mu gihugu byitezwe ko bizabyungukiramo.
Mu by’ukuri, igiciro cy’imigabane y’ibigo bifitanye isano na API cyagizweho ingaruka n’icyorezo cy’Ubuhinde kandi cyariyongereye. Ku ya 26 Mata, imigabane ya API yariyongereye, Minova, inganda zikora imiti za Huahai, umupaka w’ubucuruzi bw’inganda zikora imiti, muri zo Minova imaze iminsi itatu yikurikiranya y’ubucuruzi. Inganda zikora imiti za Tonghe zariyongereyeho zirenga 15. Byongeye kandi, imiti ikora imiti, inkingo za biyoloji, ibikoresho by’ubuvuzi n’ibindi bikoresho bifitanye isano na byo byariyongereye.
Umuntu uturuka mu kigo mpuzamahanga cy’imiti yavuze ko ibyinshi mu bicuruzwa byacyo ari ibintu bikomoka ku binyabuzima, byashongeshejwe ibikoresho by’ubuhanga mu by’ibinyabuzima, atari imiti ikomoka ku binyabutabire, bityo bikaba bitaragizweho ingaruka n’icyorezo cy’Ubuhinde. Ku bigo by’imiti ku isi, ahanini biterwa n’aho biherereye mu ruhererekane rw’inganda. Niba ibikoresho fatizo by’imiti bikomoka ku bigo by’imiti bikomoka mu Buhinde gusa, bizagerwaho, kandi niba kimwe gihuye n’imiterere y’umuyoboro w’umusaruro w’Ubuhinde, ni byiza. Ibyinshi mu bikoresho by’imiti byoherezwa mu Buhinde mu Burayi no muri Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, na bike gusa mu Bushinwa, bityo ni amahirwe ku bigo by’imiti byo mu gihugu.
Inyungu z'imyenda cyangwa iz'igihe gito
Ubuhinde kandi ni bwo buhanga mu gutunganya ipamba ku isi, inganda z’imyenda zo mu gihugu nazo zishobora kuba nziza mu gihe gito. Umusesenguzi wa Huaxi Securities, Tang Shuangshuang, yagaragaje ko ubushobozi bw’ubudodo bw’Ubuhinde bugizwe n’ibirenga 20 ku ijana by’isi, bwagizweho ingaruka n’icyorezo cy’Ubuhinde, ipamba y’ejo hazaza yiyongereyeho 3 ku ijana mu cyumweru gishize, igipimo cya C32S cy’ubudodo bw’Ubushinwa nacyo cyariyongereye.
Isoko ry'imigabane mu Buhinde ryahuye n'ikibazo
Ku isoko ry’imari, icyorezo cyateye isoko ry’imigabane mu Buhinde, isoko ry’ivunjisha ry’amafaranga y’amahanga riragizweho ingaruka. Igipimo cya SENSEX30 mu Buhinde cyagabanutseho 2.27% kuva muri Mata, cyagabanutseho 0.91% mu cyumweru gishize mu byumweru bitatu bishize bikurikiranye. Kiri hafi kugabanuka cyane mu ntangiriro za Mutarama.
Igabanuka ry'ubukungu bw'amarupi y'Ubuhinde ryarushijeho kwiyongera
Amadorari y'Ubuhinde nayo yagabanutseho ibyumweru bibiri ugereranyije n'idorari kuva muri Mata, ku igabanuka rya 2.12% ku ya 26 Mata.
Bwana Nalang yagize ati: "Mu gihe hari idorari rikomeye, amafaranga y’isoko rishaje afite intege nke, amafaranga yinjira make mu masoko rishaje ndetse n’izamuka ry’imanza nshya z’ikorosi, amafaranga y’u Buhinde ashobora kugabanuka."
Uretse kwiyongera kw'abanduye bemejwe, Reuters yavuze ko icyemezo cya Banki Nkuru y'Ubuhinde cyo kwiyemeza kugura impapuro mvunjwafaranga nyinshi cyarushijeho gukaza igabanuka ry'ifaranga ry'Ubuhinde.
Ihungabana ry'ejo hazaza ha peteroli
Ubuhinde ni igihugu cya kabiri gituwe cyane ku isi kandi kikaba ari cyo gikoresha ingufu nyinshi, kikaba ari cyo cya gatatu mu gutumiza peteroli nyinshi ku isi. Ibiciro bya peteroli y’ibikomoka ku mavuta byakomeje kugabanuka mu gihe hari impungenge ko icyorezo cyabangamira icyifuzo cy’ingufu mu Buhinde. Ibiciro bya peteroli y’ibikomoka ku mavuta ya WTI n’ibiciro bya peteroli y’ibikomoka ku mavuta ya Brent yo muri London byose byagabanutseho 1.5% ku isaha ya Beijing ku wa gatatu. Ariko, umushakashatsi w’ibikomoka ku mavuta y’ibikomoka ku mavuta mu Bushinwa bw’Epfo, Yuan Ming, yizera ko isoko rya peteroli y’ibikomoka ku mavuta ridafite igabanuka rikomeje, rigomba kwitabwaho mu nama nshya ya OPEC mu mpera za Mata.
Idolari ryagabanyije imbaraga za RMB
Ukurikije amasoko y’imari ku isi, Vuba aha, inyungu ku mpapuro mpapuro mvunjwafaranga za Amerika zagabanutseho gato, inyungu y’imyaka 10 yagabanutseho 1.5% uvuye ku hejuru ya 1.7% mu mpera za Werurwe. Idolari naryo ryongeye gucika intege, Igipimo cy’idolari cyagabanutseho 2.5% kuva muri Mata, ubu kigeze kuri 90.8. Igipimo cy’ivunjisha rya RMB cyakomeje gukomera, Kuva muri Mata, yuan yazamutseho 6.4.8 uvuye kuri 6.5.7 mu ntangiriro z’ukwezi.
Raporo y'ubushakashatsi bwa CICC yagaragaje ko inyungu ku mpapuro mpapuro mvunjwafaranga za Amerika n'idolari rya Amerika byongeye kugabanuka kubera ko imbaraga zo kuzamuka mu bukungu zishobora kwibasirwa n'icyorezo. Niba icyorezo cy'isi cyongeye kugaruka, imbogamizi z'ingenzi z'ubukungu bw'isi ntizigabanutse, ntabwo zizabona ihungabana rikomeye rya banki nkuru z'isi, isoko rigaruka ku bwenge mbere y'iki cyiciro cy'imyenda ya Amerika, kandi rigakomeza gukora imitungo myinshi iteje akaga, harimo n'imigabane n'ibicuruzwa. Iyo impungenge ku bijyanye no kugabanuka kw'imigabane muri Fed zigabanutse kandi ubushake bwo kugabanya ibyago bugasubira, idolari riragabanuka. Muri icyo gihe, ibyoherezwa mu mahanga by'Ubushinwa nabyo bizashyigikira igipimo cy'ivunjisha cya RMB mu gihe bizaba biri hejuru mu gihe gito.
Ariko, CICC yagaragaje kandi ko iki gihe gishize ari igihe gito gusa cyo gusana, mu gihe kirekire, ukwiyongera kw'icyorezo ntabwo bizahindura umurongo w'izamuka ry'ibiciro, icyerekezo cyo kuzamuka kw'inyungu ku mpapuro mpapuro mpapuro mpapuro nyemezabuguzi za Amerika n'ifaranga rikomeye ntikirarangira. Izamuka ry'ibiciro muri Amerika nirizamuka ku byitezwe mu mezi make ari imbere, Fed ishobora gukenera gukaza umurego. Igipimo cy'ubwitabire bw'abakozi ku masoko yateye imbere cyariyongereye buhoro buhoro, kandi niba guverinoma ya Biden itazongera kwagura cyane icyuho cyayo mu ngengo y'imari, ahubwo igatangira gusoresha abakire, icyo gihe ubushake bwo guhangana n'ingaruka zishobora kugabanuka, bikongera inyungu ku idolari rya Amerika mu gihembwe cyo hagati n'icya kabiri. Idolari rikomeye rizazana impinduka ku mitungo y'ibyago, bityo rigahura n'impinduka ku isoko ry'impapuro mpapuro mpapuro mpapuro mpapuro nyemezabuguzi ry'Ubushinwa.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Gicurasi-06-2021