RCEP ta lalata ribar kasuwar Kudu maso Gabashin Asiya!
An sanya hannu kan Yarjejeniyar Haɗin gwiwar Tattalin Arziki ta Yanki (Rasha da Tattalin Arziki ta Yanki, RCEP) a hukumance a ranar 15 ga Nuwamba, 2020.Mai haɗa toshe na taswira mai fil 2, kebul ɗin kintinkiri mai faɗi kuma na'urorin nuna mota ya kamata a lura.
A halin yanzu, China ta kammala amincewa da yarjejeniyar haɗin gwiwa ta tattalin arziki mai cikakken iko a yankin, wato yarjejeniyar RCEP, kuma ta zama ƙasa ta farko da ta amince da yarjejeniyar. Bugu da ƙari, Thailand ta amince da yarjejeniyar. Duk ƙasashe membobin RCEP sun nuna cewa za su amince da yarjejeniyar nan da ƙarshen wannan shekara kuma su sauƙaƙe fara aiki a ranar 1 ga Janairu na shekara mai zuwa.
Kasashe 15 da suka sanya hannu kan yarjejeniyar suna da jimillar yawan jama'a kusan biliyan 3.6, ko kuma kusan rabin yawan jama'ar duniya biliyan 7.8. Tare da tattalin arzikin da ya kai kimanin dala tiriliyan 27, ko kuma kusan kashi daya bisa uku na GDP na duniya, da kuma yawan ciniki da ya kai kusan kashi daya bisa uku na yawan cinikin duniya, kasashe 15 su ne RCEP mafi yawan jama'a, mafi girman tattalin arziki da cinikayya a duniya, kuma mafi karfin ci gaba.
Amma ina jin tsoron akwai abokai da yawa na kasuwanci na ƙasashen waje waɗanda ba su fahimci, a gaskiya ma, farkon RCEP, shine ASEAN.
Kasashen ASEAN sun gabatar da ra'ayin RCEP a shekarar 2011; a wannan shekarar, shugabannin kasashe goma sun amince da ra'ayin a hukumance a taron kolin ASEAN.
Kasashen ASEAN 10, tare da shugabannin China, Japan, Jamhuriyar Koriya, Indiya, Ostiraliya da New Zealand, sun fitar da wata sanarwa ta hadin gwiwa kan fara tattaunawa > yarjejeniyar hadin gwiwa ta tattalin arziki ta yankin a
Bayan haka, ASEAN ta ci gaba da tallata sanya hannu kan yarjejeniyar RCEP a hukumance. Misali, Vietnam, abokin cinikinmu na farko a ASEAN, ya jaddada cewa sanya hannu kan yarjejeniyar RCEP koyaushe yana ɗaya daga cikin abubuwan da suka fi mayar da hankali kan haɗakar Vietnam da dabarun ƙasa da ƙasa, yayin da Malaysia, wacce ita ce ta biyu mafi girma a ASEAN, ita ma ta ce bai kamata Indiya ta kawo cikas ga yarjejeniyoyin ci gaba ba.
Ga tattalin arzikin yankin baki ɗaya, akwai yarjejeniyoyi na cinikayya tsakanin ƙasashen ASEAN da ASEAN gaba ɗaya da sauran ƙasashe biyar mambobi, RCEP haɗin gwiwa ne na yarjejeniyoyin da ake da su.
Gabaɗaya, aiwatar da yarjejeniyar rage haraji tsakanin membobin RCEP, shiga kasuwa a buɗe, kawar da shingen da ke shafar ciniki, da kuma sauƙaƙe hanyoyin share fage na kwastam zai ƙara rage farashin ciniki a yankin RCEP da kuma haɓaka sauƙaƙe ciniki, wanda zai taka rawa mai kyau wajen haɓaka ci gaban ciniki da saka hannun jari na yankin. Haɗin rage harajin akan kusan kashi 90 cikin 100 na abubuwan haraji da membobin za su ƙarfafa yuwuwar ƙaruwar ciniki da saka hannun jari a ƙasashen yankin.
A gefe guda kuma, bisa kididdiga, masana'antar masana'antu ta kasar Sin ta kai kashi 65% na RCEP, yawan jama'a ya kai kashi 64%, kuma yawan tattalin arziki ya kai kashi 55%, wanda ya fi kowace kasa a RCEP girma, wanda hakan ke nuna cewa kasar Sin tana da matsayi mafi rinjaye a RCEP. RCEP za ta mayar da hankali kan kasar Sin, wato raba sarkar masana'antu, wanda hakan yana da matukar amfani ga kasar Sin wajen kafa tsarin tattalin arzikinta da kuma tasirinta a duniya.
Ga masu cinikin ƙasashen waje, waɗanne damammaki ne za su cancanci a haƙa?
Babban yuwuwar kasuwa
ASEAN yanzu tana da ƙasashe 10 mambobi a cikin tsarin GDP na GDP: Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos da Brunei. Jimillar yawan kowace ƙasa a halin yanzu ya kai kimanin miliyan 660. Tare da maƙwabtan Indiya, Pakistan da Bangladesh, tare da yawan jama'a sama da biliyan 2.5, kusan ninki biyu na China, yawan jama'a mai yawa shi ma yana kawo damar kasuwanci mara iyaka.
A cikin wani rahoto da kamfanin ruwa na Price Water Coopers ya fitar a farkon watan Oktoba, ya yi nazari kan cewa yawancin ƙasashen ASEAN har yanzu suna cikin matakan farko na ci gaban tattalin arziki kuma tushen tattalin arzikinsu yana da rauni. Tare da saurin ci gaba a cikin 'yan shekarun nan, yanayin rayuwar mutanen yankin ya inganta sosai, kuma buƙata da amfani da kayayyaki daban-daban suna ƙaruwa.
A halin yanzu, ana iya raba ASEAN zuwa sassa uku bisa ga matakin ci gaban tattalin arziki:
Matsayin farko: Singapore da Brunei
Waɗannan ƙasashen biyu suna da tsarin gina ababen more rayuwa da tattalin arziki mai kyau, amma iyakacinsu ta fannin ƙasa da kuma yawan kuɗin aiki, yawan masana'antu ba shi da yawa, kuma galibi suna mai da hankali ne a masana'antar masana'antu masu inganci.
Matsayi na biyu: Malaysia da Thailand
Tushen masana'antu na ƙasashen biyu ya yi daidai, matakin ilimi na ƙasa ya fi girma, kuma tarin da aka samu a cikin 'yan shekarun da suka gabata ya samar da tsarin samar da kayayyaki mai kyau a wasu fannoni na musamman, wanda ke da matuƙar gasa.
Matsayin na uku: Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia da Laos
Tushen masana'antu na wannan ƙasa mai tasowa yana da rauni kaɗan kuma matakin ci gaban ƙasa yana da ƙasa, amma godiya ga yawan ma'aikata da ƙarancin farashin ma'aikata, tana da gasa mafi girma a masana'antu masu buƙatar aiki. Masu zuba jari na ƙasashen waje da yawa suna ganin waɗannan ƙasashe a matsayin China ta gaba, suna jawo hankalin masu zuba jari na ƙasashen waje da kuma girma cikin sauri.
Kafin barkewar sabuwar kambin, ƙasashen Asiya suna riƙe da ƙimar ci gaban GDP na shekara-shekara na kusan kashi 5% tsawon shekaru da yawa, kuma an daɗe ana ɗaukar ASEAN a matsayin "ɗaya daga cikin yankuna mafi kyau a duniya".
Amma sakamakon sabon kambin "baƙar fata", a shekarar 2020, biyar daga cikin manyan ƙasashe shida na ASEAN, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand da sauran ƙasashe, sun nuna ci gaba mara kyau, kawai Vietnam "kawai", sun ci gaba da ci gaba mai kyau, amma kuma sun ragu sosai, kashi 2.9 cikin ɗari kawai.
Duk da haka, ana sa ran tattalin arzikin ƙasashen ASEAN zai koma ga farfadowa a shekarar 2021, kamar yadda yake a sauran ƙasashen duniya, kuma ƙarfin ya fi ƙarfi, bayan haka, fa'idodin asali na yankin ba su canza ba.
Rage matakin sashen sarkar masana'antu
Daga rabon sarkar masana'antu tsakanin China da ƙasashen ASEAN, China tana cikin manyan masana'antun masana'antu, kuma ƙasashen ASEAN suna da fa'idodi a masana'antu masu buƙatar aiki saboda yawan ribar da suke samu daga alƙaluma. Tun da farko, China ta saka hannun jari kai tsaye a ƙasashen ASEAN, RCEP ta sanya hannu kan yarjejeniyar, sarkar masana'antu mai ƙarancin inganci za ta hanzarta canja wurin.
Ɗaya daga cikin mafi fa'ida zai kasance masana'antar yadi da tufafi.
A matsayinta na babbar ƙasar da ke fitar da yadi a duniya, China tana da fa'idodin samar da dukkan sarkar masana'antu, kamar bincike da haɓaka masana'antu, ƙarin ƙima mai yawa, lokacin isar da kayayyaki cikin sauri, odar samfura masu rikitarwa, da sauransu. A gefe guda kuma, fa'idar kuɗin aiki a yankin kudu maso gabashin Asiya abin mamaki ne. Fa'idar kuɗin fito tare da kasuwar Arewacin Amurka ta EU ita ce ta farko.
Baya ga yadi da tufafi, masana'antar filastik da ke amfani da taya za ta kuma amfana daga sanya hannu kan yarjejeniyar RCEP. China ita ce babbar masana'antar tayar mota a duniya, amma dogaro da robar halitta a waje a China ya kai kusan kashi 87%. Yayin da China ta shiga RCEP, tana shigo da robar halitta daga Kudu maso Gabashin Asiya a nan gaba ko kuma za ta cimma rashin kuɗin fito, babban fa'ida ne ga masana'antar tayar roba ta China.
Bugu da ƙari, abin lura ne musamman cewa RCEP ta kafa ƙa'idodi iri ɗaya na asali, wanda zai rage farashin saka hannun jari na kamfanoni a yankin. A cikin cinikin ƙasashen duniya, adadi mai yawa na kayayyaki daga masana'antu zuwa tsarin kasuwa na ƙarshe, sau da yawa ta hanyar ma'amaloli da yawa na ƙetare iyaka. Dokar tarin yankuna a cikin ƙa'idodin asali tana nufin cewa adadin kamfanonin da ke siyayya a yankin ya kai kashi 40%, kuma ana iya ɗaukar samfurin a matsayin asalin yanki, don haka yana jin daɗin shirye-shiryen fifiko. Wannan zai ƙarfafa ƙarin haɓakawa da haɓaka hanyoyin samar da kayayyaki na yanki kuma ya haifar da babban ci gaba a cikin ciniki da saka hannun jari na yankuna.
Lokacin Saƙo: Maris-30-2021