Ka pā te RCEP ki te wehewehenga o te mākete o Āhia ki te Tonga-Rawhiti!
I hainatia mana te Whakaaetanga Mahi Tahi Ōhanga Whānui ā-Rohe (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, RCEP) i te 15 o Noema 2020.Hononga poraka pito 2 pine, taura rīpene papatahi me ngā whakaata waka me mōhio.
I tēnei wā, kua oti i a Haina te whakaae ki te whakaaetanga hononga ōhanga whānui ā-rohe, arā, te whakaaetanga RCEP, ā, ko ia te whenua tuatahi ki te whakamana i te whakaaetanga. Hei tāpiri, kua whakamanahia e Thailand te Whakaaetanga. Kua tohu ngā Whenua mema katoa o te RCEP ka whakamanahia e rātou te Whakaaetanga i te mutunga o tēnei tau, ā, ka āwhina i tōna mana i te 1 o Hānuere o te tau e tū mai nei.
Ko te taupori o ngā whenua 15 i hainatia te whakaaetanga he tata ki te 3.6 piriona, tata ki te haurua o te taupori 7.8 piriona o te ao. Me te ōhanga o te $27 trillion, tata ki te kotahi hautoru o te GDP o te ao, me te nui o te hokohoko o te kotahi hautoru o te nui o te hokohoko o te ao, ko ngā whenua 15 te RCEP te rohe hokohoko me te ōhanga nui rawa atu o te ao, me te tino pūmanawa mō te whanaketanga.
Engari e wehi ana ahau he maha ngā hoa mahi tauhokohoko ki tāwāhi kāore e mārama ana, ko te mea pono, ko te RCEP tuatahi ko ASEAN.
I te tau 2011 i tukuna te whakaaro o te RCEP e ngā whenua o ASEAN; i taua tau anō, i whakaaetia e ngā kaiārahi o ngā whenua tekau te whakaaro i te hui nui o ASEAN.
I whakaputa ngā whenua 10 o ASEAN, me ngā kaiārahi o Haina, Hapani, te Repupiripia o Kōrea, Īnia, Ahitereiria me Aotearoa, i tētahi tauākī tahi mō te whakarewatanga o ngā whiriwhiringa > he whakaaetanga hononga ōhanga ā-rohe whānui i te tau
Whai muri i tēnā, kua kaha te whakatairanga a ASEAN i te hainatanga ōkawa o te RCEP. Hei tauira, kua whakanui a Vietnam, tō tātou hoa hokohoko tuatahi i ASEAN, ko te hainatanga o te RCEP tētahi o ngā kaupapa matua o te whakaurunga o Vietnam ki roto i te rautaki o te ao, ā, kua kī anō a Mareia, te tuarua o ngā mema nui rawa atu o ASEAN, kaua a Īnia e aukati i ngā whakaaetanga ahunga whakamua.
Mō te ōhanga ā-rohe whānui, kei reira ngā whakaaetanga hokohoko kore utu rua i waenganui i ngā whenua ASEAN me te ASEAN whānui me ngā whenua mema e rima atu, ko te RCEP he whakanui ngātahi i ngā whakaaetanga o nāianei.
I te nuinga o te wā, mā te whakatinanatanga tahi o ngā whakahekenga utu tāke e ngā mema o te RCEP, te urunga tuwhera ki te mākete, te tango i ngā arai e pā ana ki te hokohoko, me te whakangawari i ngā tikanga whakawātea tikanga ka whakaiti ake i ngā utu hokohoko i te rohe RCEP, ka whakatairanga hoki i te whakahaere hokohoko, ka whai wāhi pai ki te whakatairanga i te tipu o te hokohoko me te haumitanga o te rohe. Mā te whakaiti ngātahi i ngā utu tāke mō te 90 ōrau o ngā tūemi tāke e ngā mema ka whakaoho i te kaha ki te whakapiki ake i te hokohoko me te haumitanga ki ngā whenua o te rohe.
I tētahi atu taha, e ai ki ngā tatauranga, ko te umanga hanga o Haina te 65% o te RCEP, ko te taupori he 64%, ā, ko te rahinga ōhanga he 55%, he nui ake tēnei i tētahi atu whenua i roto i te RCEP, e whakatau ana kei a Haina te tūranga tata ki te mana i roto i te RCEP. Ka arotahi te RCEP ki a Haina, te wehenga o te mekameka ahumahi, he mea tino whai hua mō Haina ki te whakatū i tana ake pūnaha ōhanga me te ao whānui o te mana.
Mō te hunga hokohoko o tāwāhi, he aha ngā whai wāhitanga e tika ana kia keria?
He nui te pūmanawa mākete
Tekau ngā whenua mema o ASEAN i tēnei wā, arā, ko Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos me Brunei. Ko te taupori katoa o ia whenua i tēnei wā e 660 miriona. Tāpiri atu ki ngā whenua tata o Īnia, Pakitāne me Bangladesh, me te taupori neke atu i te 2.5 piriona, tata ki te rua o te taupori i Haina, ka kawea mai hoki e te nui o te taupori he mutunga kore o ngā whai wāhitanga pakihi.
I roto i tētahi pūrongo i te tīmatanga o Oketopa, i tātarihia e te whare wai o Price, a Coopers, ko te nuinga o ngā whenua o ASEAN kei ngā wāhanga tīmatanga tonu o te whanaketanga ōhanga, ā, he ngoikore te turanga ōhanga. Nā te tere o te whanaketanga i ngā tau tata nei, kua tino pai ake te paerewa oranga o te iwi o te rohe, ā, kua piki haere te hiahia me te kai i ngā momo hua.
I tēnei wā, e toru ngā taumata o te whanaketanga ōhanga o ASEAN:
Te taumata tuatahi: Singapore me Brunei
He tino pai te hanganga o ngā hanganga me te pūnaha ōhanga o ēnei whenua e rua, engari he iti noa iho te rahinga o ngā ahumahi e whakamahia ana e rātou nā te nui o te whenua me te utu nui o ngā mahi, ā, ko te nuinga o te wā e aro ana ki te ahumahi hangahanga teitei.
Tuarua o ngā taumata: Mareia me Thailand
He tino pai te turanga ahumahi o ngā whenua e rua, he teitei ake te taumata mātauranga ā-motu, ā, ko te kohikohinga i ngā tekau tau kua pahure ake nei kua hanga he pūnaha mekameka tuku tino pai i roto i ētahi mara motuhake, he tino whakataetae.
Te tuatoru o ngā taumata: Initonīhia, Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia me Laos
He ngoikore te turanga ahumahi o tēnei whenua taumata teitei, ā, he iti te taumata whanaketanga ā-motu, engari nā te nui o ngā kaimahi me te iti o te utu mahi, he kaha ake tōna whakataetae i roto i ngā ahumahi e nui ana te mahi. E kitea ana ēnei whenua e te tini o ngā kaipupuri moni o tāwāhi hei Haina e whai ake nei, e kukume ana i te nui o ngā haumitanga o tāwāhi, ā, e tere tipu ana.
I mua i te tīmatanga o te karauna hou, i pupuri tonu ngā whenua o ASEAN i te tere tipu o te GDP ā-tau tata ki te 5% mō ngā tau maha, ā, i roa te whakaaro o ASEAN ko "tētahi o ngā rohe tino pai o te ao".
Engari nā te karauna hou "black swan", i te tau 2020, e rima o ngā whenua mema nui e ono o ASEAN, arā, ko Indonesia, ko Singapore, ko Malaysia, ko Philippines, ko Thailand me ētahi atu whenua, i whakaatu i te tipu kino, ko Vietnam anake "i pupuri i te tipu pai, engari i tino puhoi hoki, 2.9 ōrau noa iho.
Heoi, e matapaetia whānuitia ana ka hoki anō ngā ōhanga o ngā whenua ASEAN ki te ora ake i te tau 2021, pērā i te toenga o te ao, ā, ka kaha ake te nekehanga, nā te mea, kāore anō kia rerekē ngā painga matua o te rohe.
Whakaitihia te paepae o te wehenga mekameka ahumahi
Mai i te wehenga o te mekameka ahumahi i waenganui i a Haina me ngā whenua o ASEAN, kei roto a Haina i te pito teitei o te umanga hanga, ā, he painga ngā whenua o ASEAN ki ngā ahumahi e nui ana te mahi nā te mea he nui te painga taupori. I mua ake nei, kua whai haumi tika a Haina ki ngā whenua o ASEAN, e ai ki te hainatanga a te RCEP, mā te mekameka ahumahi iti-iti e tere ake te whakawhiti.
Ko tētahi o ngā mea tino whai hua ko te umanga kakahu me te kakahu.
Hei te whenua kawe kakahu nui rawa atu o te ao, kei a Haina ngā painga o te mekameka whakaputa katoa o te ahumahi, pērā i te rangahau me te whanaketanga ahumahi, te uara tāpiri nui, te tere me te kore e poto te wā tuku, ngā ota hua uaua, me ētahi atu. I tētahi atu taha, he mea whakamiharo te painga o te utu mahi ki tāwāhi o Āhia ki te Tonga-Rawhiti. Ko te painga utu me te mākete o Amerika Te Raki o te EU te whai wāhitanga tuatahi.
Haunga ngā kakahu me ngā raranga, ka whai hua anō hoki te umanga kirihou e ahu mai ana i ngā potae i te hainatanga o te RCEP. Ko Haina te kaihanga potae nui rawa atu o te ao, engari ko te whakawhirinakitanga o Haina ki waho ki te rapa taiao e tata ana ki te 87%. I te mea ka uru atu a Haina ki te RCEP, ka kawemai i te rapa taiao mai i te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti o Āhia a muri ake nei, ka kore rānei he taake, he painga nui tēnei mō te umanga potae rapa o Haina.
Hei tāpiri atu ki tēnā, he mea nui kia mōhiotia kua whakatūria e te RCEP ngā ture taketake ōrite, ka whakaiti i ngā utu haumi a ngā umanga i te rohe. I roto i te hokohoko o te ao, he maha ngā hua mai i te hanga ki te tukanga mākete whakamutunga, he maha ngā wā mā roto i ngā tauwhitinga whakawhiti-rohe. Ko te tikanga o te ture ā-rohe i roto i ngā ture taketake ko te ōwehenga o ngā umanga e hoko ana i te rohe ka eke ki te 40%, ā, ka taea te kī ko te hua he takenga ā-rohe, nō reira ka whiwhi i ngā whakaritenga pai. Ma tēnei ka akiaki i te whakapai ake me te whakarei ake i ngā mekameka tuku ā-rohe, ā, ka arahi ki te tipu nui o te hokohoko me te haumi ā-rohe.
Wā tuku: Maehe-30-2021