RCEP yaphulitsa gawo la msika wa Southeast Asia!
Pangano la Mgwirizano Wachuma Wachigawo (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, RCEP) linasainidwa mwalamulo pa 15 Novembala 2020.Cholumikizira cha block ya terminal ya ma pin awiri, chingwe cha riboni chathyathyathya ndi zowunikira magalimoto ziyenera kudziwika.
Pakadali pano, China yamaliza kuvomereza mgwirizano wa zachuma wa m'chigawo, womwe ndi mgwirizano wa RCEP, ndipo yakhala dziko loyamba kuvomereza mgwirizanowu. Kuphatikiza apo, Thailand yavomereza Mgwirizanowu. Mayiko onse omwe ali mamembala a RCEP asonyeza kuti avomereza Mgwirizanowu pofika kumapeto kwa chaka chino ndikuthandizira kuti uyambe kugwira ntchito pa 1 Januwale chaka chamawa.
Mayiko 15 omwe adasaina panganoli anali ndi anthu pafupifupi 3.6 biliyoni, kapena pafupifupi theka la anthu onse padziko lonse lapansi okwana 7.8 biliyoni. Pokhala ndi chuma cha pafupifupi $27 thililiyoni, kapena pafupifupi gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu a GDP yapadziko lonse, komanso kuchuluka kwa malonda pafupifupi gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu a kuchuluka kwa malonda padziko lonse lapansi, mayiko 15wa ndi RCEP omwe ndi anthu ambiri padziko lonse lapansi, chuma chachikulu komanso dera lamalonda lomwe lili ndi kuthekera kwakukulu kotukuka.
Koma ndikuopa kuti pali mabwenzi ambiri ogulitsa malonda akunja omwe sakumvetsa, kwenikweni, RCEP yoyambirira, ndi ASEAN.
Mayiko a ASEAN adapereka lingaliro la RCEP mu 2011; chaka chomwecho, atsogoleri a mayiko khumi adavomereza mwalamulo lingaliroli pamsonkhano wa ASEAN.
Mayiko 10 a ASEAN, pamodzi ndi atsogoleri a China, Japan, Republic of Korea, India, Australia ndi New Zealand, adapereka chiganizo chogwirizana pa kuyambitsa zokambirana > mgwirizano wachuma wachigawo ku
Pambuyo pake, ASEAN yakhala ikulimbikitsa kwambiri kusaina mwalamulo kwa RCEP. Mwachitsanzo, Vietnam, bwenzi lathu loyamba la malonda ku ASEAN, yagogomezera kuti kusaina kwa RCEP nthawi zonse kwakhala chimodzi mwa zinthu zofunika kwambiri kuti Vietnam iphatikizidwe mu njira yapadziko lonse lapansi, pomwe Malaysia, membala wachiwiri wamkulu wa ASEAN, yanenanso kuti mapangano akupita patsogolo sayenera kulepheretsedwa ndi India.
Pa chuma cha dera lonse, pali mapangano amalonda aulere pakati pa mayiko a ASEAN ndi ASEAN onse ndi mayiko ena asanu omwe ali mamembala, RCEP ikuwonjezera mapangano omwe alipo kale.
Ponseponse, kukhazikitsa malamulo ogwirizana a misonkho ndi mamembala a RCEP, mwayi wotseguka pamsika, kuchotsa zopinga zomwe zimakhudza malonda, komanso kuphweka kwa njira zochotsera misonkho kudzachepetsanso ndalama zamalonda m'chigawo cha RCEP ndikulimbikitsa kupititsa patsogolo malonda, zomwe zithandiza kwambiri pakukweza kukula kwa malonda ndi ndalama m'chigawochi. Kuchepetsa pamodzi misonkho pa zinthu pafupifupi 90 peresenti za msonkho ndi mamembala kungalimbikitse kuthekera kowonjezera malonda ndi ndalama m'maiko am'chigawochi.
Kumbali ina, malinga ndi ziwerengero, makampani opanga zinthu ku China ndi 65% ya RCEP, chiwerengero cha anthu ndi 64%, ndipo kuchuluka kwachuma ndi 55%, komwe ndi kwakukulu kwambiri kuposa dziko lina lililonse mu RCEP, zomwe zimatsimikizira kuti China ili ndi udindo waukulu mu RCEP. RCEP idzayang'ana kwambiri China, gawo la unyolo wa mafakitale, lomwe ndi lothandiza kwambiri kuti China ikhazikitse dongosolo lake lazachuma komanso gawo lamphamvu padziko lonse lapansi.
Kwa anthu ochita malonda akunja, ndi mwayi wotani womwe ungakhale woyenera kukumba?
Kuthekera kwakukulu pamsika
ASEAN tsopano ili ndi mayiko 10 omwe ali mamembala motsatira kukula kwa GDP: Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos ndi Brunei. Chiwerengero cha anthu m'dziko lililonse pakadali pano chili pafupifupi 660 miliyoni. Kuphatikiza ndi India, Pakistan ndi Bangladesh, okhala ndi anthu opitilira 2.5 biliyoni, pafupifupi kawiri kuposa China, kuchuluka kwa anthu ambiri kumabweretsanso mwayi wopanda malire wamabizinesi.
Mu lipoti la kumayambiriro kwa Okutobala, kampani ya Price water Coopers idasanthula kuti mayiko ambiri a ku ASEAN anali akadali mu gawo loyambirira la chitukuko cha zachuma ndipo maziko awo azachuma anali ofooka pang'ono. Chifukwa cha chitukuko chofulumira m'zaka zaposachedwa, moyo wa anthu am'deralo wakwera kwambiri, ndipo kufunikira ndi kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa zinthu zosiyanasiyana kwakhala kukukwera.
Pakadali pano, ASEAN ikhoza kugawidwa m'magawo atatu malinga ndi kukula kwachuma:
Gawo loyamba: Singapore ndi Brunei
Mayiko awiriwa ali ndi zomangamanga zabwino komanso njira yabwino yopangira zinthu, koma chifukwa cha malo ndi ndalama zambiri zogwirira ntchito, kuchuluka kwa mafakitale ndi kochepa, ndipo makamaka makampani opanga zinthu zapamwamba kwambiri.
Gawo lachiwiri: Malaysia ndi Thailand
Maziko a mafakitale a mayiko awiriwa ndi abwino kwambiri, maphunziro a dziko lonse ndi apamwamba, ndipo kuchuluka kwa makampani m'zaka zingapo zapitazi kwapanga njira yabwino kwambiri yopezera zinthu m'magawo enaake, yomwe ndi yopikisana kwambiri.
Gawo lachitatu: Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia ndi Laos
Maziko a mafakitale m'dziko lino ndi ofooka pang'ono ndipo chitukuko cha dziko ndi chochepa, koma chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa antchito olemera komanso mtengo wotsika wa antchito, lili ndi mpikisano waukulu m'mafakitale omwe amagwiritsa ntchito antchito ambiri. Amalonda ambiri akunja amaona mayikowa ngati China yotsatira, zomwe zimakopa ndalama zambiri zakunja ndipo zikukula mofulumira.
Dziko la ASEAN lisanatuluke, mayiko a ASEAN adasunga chiwongola dzanja cha GDP cha pafupifupi 5% pachaka kwa zaka zambiri, ndipo ASEAN idawonedwa ngati "limodzi mwa madera omwe akuchita bwino kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi".
Koma chifukwa cha korona watsopano wa "black swan", mu 2020, mayiko asanu mwa mayiko asanu ndi limodzi akuluakulu a ASEAN, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand ndi mayiko ena, adawonetsa kukula koyipa, Vietnam yokha "yokha", idasunga kukula kwabwino, komanso idachepetsa kwambiri, 2.9 peresenti yokha.
Komabe, zikuyembekezeredwa kuti chuma cha mayiko a ASEAN chidzayamba kuchira mu 2021, monga momwe zilili padziko lonse lapansi, ndipo mphamvu zake zikukulirakulira, chifukwa ubwino wa chigawochi sunasinthe.
Chepetsani malire a gawo la unyolo wa mafakitale
Kuchokera ku kugawikana kwa unyolo wa mafakitale pakati pa China ndi mayiko a ASEAN, China ili m'gulu la makampani opanga zinthu zambiri, ndipo mayiko a ASEAN ali ndi ubwino m'mafakitale omwe amagwiritsa ntchito anthu ambiri chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa anthu omwe ali nawo. M'mbuyomu, China idayika ndalama mwachindunji m'maiko a ASEAN, RCEP idasaina, unyolo wa mafakitale wotsika udzathandizira kusamutsaku.
Chimodzi mwa zinthu zabwino kwambiri chidzakhala makampani opanga nsalu ndi zovala.
Monga dziko lalikulu kwambiri lotumiza nsalu padziko lonse lapansi, China ili ndi ubwino wopanga unyolo wonse wa mafakitale, monga kafukufuku ndi chitukuko cha mafakitale, mtengo wowonjezera, nthawi yofulumira yotumizira zinthu, maoda ovuta azinthu, ndi zina zotero. Kumbali ina, phindu la ndalama zogwirira ntchito ku Southeast Asia ndi lodabwitsa. Phindu la msonkho ndi msika wa EU North America limatenga mwayi woyamba.
Kupatula nsalu ndi zovala, makampani opanga pulasitiki okhala ndi matayala adzapindulanso ndi kusaina kwa RCEP. China ndiye kampani yayikulu kwambiri yopanga matayala padziko lonse lapansi, koma kudalira kwakunja kwa rabala wachilengedwe ku China kuli pafupifupi 87%. Pamene China ilowa nawo RCEP, imatumiza rabala wachilengedwe kuchokera ku Southeast Asia mtsogolo kapena sidzakwaniritsa msonkho uliwonse, ndi phindu lalikulu kwa makampani opanga matayala a rabala ku China.
Kuphatikiza apo, ndikofunikira kwambiri kudziwa kuti RCEP yakhazikitsa malamulo ofanana oyambira, omwe achepetsa ndalama zomwe makampani amaika m'derali. Mu malonda apadziko lonse lapansi, kuchuluka kwa zinthu kuyambira pakupanga mpaka kumapeto kwa msika, nthawi zambiri kudzera mu malonda ambiri odutsa malire. Lamulo lophatikizana la madera m'malamulo oyambira limatanthauza kuti gawo la mabizinesi omwe amagula m'derali limafika pa 40%, ndipo malondawo amatha kuonedwa ngati ochokera m'madera, motero amasangalala ndi makonzedwe abwino. Izi zilimbikitsa kupititsa patsogolo ndi kukulitsa maunyolo ogulitsa m'madera ndikupangitsa kukula kwakukulu kwa malonda ndi ndalama m'madera.
Nthawi yotumizira: Marichi-30-2021