I-RCEP iqhumisa inzuzo yemakethe yaseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia!
Isivumelwano Sokubambisana Kwezomnotho Esibanzi Sesifunda (Ubambiswano Lwezomnotho Oluphelele Lwesifunda, i-RCEP) sasayinwa ngokusemthethweni ngomhlaka-15 Novemba 2020.Isixhumi sebhulokhi yesiphelo esinezikhonkwane ezimbili, ikhebula leribhoni eliyisicaba futhi izibonisi zemoto kufanele kuqashelwe.
Njengamanje, iShayina isiqedile ukugunyazwa kwesivumelwano sokubambisana kwezomnotho esibanzi sesifunda, okungukuthi, isivumelwano se-RCEP, futhi isibe yizwe lokuqala ukuqinisa lesi sivumelwano. Ngaphezu kwalokho, iThailand isivumile lesi Sivumelwano. Wonke amazwe angamalungu e-RCEP abonise ukuthi azosiqinisekisa lesi Sivumelwano ekupheleni kwalo nyaka futhi enze kube lula ukuqala ukusebenza kwaso mhla lu-1 kuJanuwari ngonyaka ozayo.
Amazwe ayi-15 asayine lesi sivumelwano ayenabantu ababalelwa ku-3.6 billion, noma cishe ingxenye yabantu abayizigidigidi eziyi-7.8 emhlabeni. Njengoba enomnotho ongaba ngu-$27 trillion, noma cishe ingxenye yesithathu ye-GDP yomhlaba, kanye nomthamo wokuhweba ongaba ingxenye yesithathu yevolumu yokuhweba emhlabeni, la mazwe ayi-15 ayi-RCEP indawo enabantu abaningi kakhulu emhlabeni, enkulu kunazo zonke kwezomnotho kanye nendawo yokuhweba enethuba elikhulu lentuthuko.
Kodwa ngiyesaba ukuthi baningi abangani bezohwebo lwangaphandle abangaqondi, empeleni, i-RCEP yokuqala, yi-ASEAN.
Amazwe ase-ASEAN aveza umbono we-RCEP ngo-2011; ngalowo nyaka, abaholi bamazwe ayishumi bawuvuma ngokusemthethweni lo mbono engqungqutheleni ye-ASEAN.
Amazwe ayi-10 ase-ASEAN, kanye nabaholi baseShayina, eJapane, eRiphabhulikhi yaseKorea, eNdiya, e-Australia naseNew Zealand, akhiphe isitatimende esihlangene mayelana nokuqaliswa kwezingxoxo > isivumelwano esibanzi sokubambisana kwezomnotho wesifunda e-
Ngemva kwalokho, i-ASEAN ibilokhu ikhuthaza ngenkuthalo ukusayinwa okusemthethweni kwe-RCEP. I-Viet Nam, umlingani wethu wokuqala wokuhweba e-ASEAN, isibonelo, igcizelele ukuthi ukusayinwa kwe-RCEP bekulokhu kungenye yezinto eziza kuqala ekuhlanganisweni kwe-Vietnam nesu lamazwe ngamazwe, kuyilapho iMalaysia, ilungu lesibili ngobukhulu le-ASEAN, nayo ithe izivumelwano zentuthuko akufanele ziphazanyiswe yi-India.
Ngomnotho wesifunda wonkana, kunezivumelwano zokuhweba ezikhululekile phakathi kwamazwe ase-ASEAN ne-ASEAN wonkana kanye namanye amazwe amahlanu angamalungu, i-RCEP okuwukwanda kwezivumelwano ezikhona ngokuhlanganyela.
Sekukonke, ukusetshenziswa kwezivumelwano zentela ngamalungu e-RCEP, ukufinyelela emakethe evulekile, ukususwa kwezithiyo ezithinta ukuhweba, kanye nokwenza lula izinqubo zokukhishwa kwentela kuzonciphisa kakhulu izindleko zokuhweba esifundeni se-RCEP futhi kukhuthaze ukuqhutshwa kokuhweba, okuzodlala indima enhle ekukhuthazeni ukukhula kokuhweba nokutshalwa kwezimali esifundeni. Ukwehliswa okuhlangene kwentela ezintweni ezingaba ngu-90% zentela ngamalungu kuzokhuthaza amathuba okwanda kokuhweba nokutshalwa kwezimali emazweni alesi sifunda.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngokwezibalo, imboni yokukhiqiza yaseShayina ihlanganisa u-65% we-RCEP, inani labantu lingu-64%, kanti umthamo wezomnotho ungama-55%, okuyinto enkulu kakhulu kunanoma yiliphi elinye izwe ku-RCEP, okunquma ukuthi iShayina inesikhundla esiseduze kakhulu ku-RCEP. I-RCEP izogxila eShayina, isigaba se-industrial chain, esizuzisa kakhulu iShayina ukusungula uhlelo lwayo lwezomnotho kanye nomkhakha wethonya lomhlaba wonke.
Kubantu abahweba kwamanye amazwe, yimaphi amathuba azoba wusizo ukuwamba?
Amandla amakhulu emakethe
I-ASEAN manje inamazwe ayi-10 angamalungu ngokulandelana kwe-GDP ngobukhulu: i-Indonesia, iThailand, iSingapore, iMalaysia, iPhilippines, iVietnam, iMyanmar, iCambodia, iLaos neBrunei. Inani labantu bezwe ngalinye njengamanje licishe libe yizigidi ezingama-660. Uma kuqhathaniswa neNdiya, iPakistan neBangladesh ezingomakhelwane, enabantu abangaphezu kwezigidigidi ezingu-2.5, cishe kabili kuneShayina, inani labantu elikhulu liphinde lilethe amathuba ebhizinisi angenamkhawulo.
Embikweni wango-Okthoba, i-Price water house Coopers ihlaziye ukuthi amazwe amaningi ase-ASEAN ayesesesigabeni sokuqala sentuthuko yezomnotho nokuthi isisekelo sawo sezomnotho sasibuthakathaka. Njengoba intuthuko ishesha eminyakeni yamuva nje, izinga lokuphila labantu bendawo lithuthuke kakhulu, futhi isidingo nokusetshenziswa kwemikhiqizo ehlukahlukene kuye kwanda.
Njengamanje, i-ASEAN ingahlukaniswa ngamaqembu amathathu ngokwezinga lentuthuko yomnotho:
Isigaba sokuqala: iSingapore neBrunei
Lawa mazwe amabili anokwakhiwa kwengqalasizinda ephelele kanye nohlelo lwezomnotho, kodwa kunqunyelwe indawo yomhlaba kanye nezindleko eziphezulu zabasebenzi, umthamo wezimboni mncane kakhulu, futhi ugxile kakhulu embonini yokukhiqiza ephezulu.
Isigaba sesibili: iMalaysia neThailand
Isisekelo sezimboni samazwe amabili siphelele, izinga lemfundo likazwelonke liphezulu, futhi ukuqongelela emashumini ambalwa eminyaka edlule kuye kwakha uhlelo oluphelele lwe-supply chain kwezinye izinkambu ezithile, oluncintisana kakhulu.
Isigaba sesithathu: i-Indonesia, iPhilippines, iVietnam, iMyanmar, iCambodia kanye neLaos
Isisekelo sezimboni saleli lizwe eliyi-echelon sibuthakathaka kakhulu kanti nezinga lentuthuko yezwe liphansi, kodwa ngenxa yenani labantu abacebile labasebenzi kanye nentengo ephansi yabasebenzi, linokuncintisana okuphezulu ezimbonini ezidinga abasebenzi abaningi. Lawa mazwe abhekwa ngabatshalizimali abaningi bangaphandle njengeShayina elandelayo, eheha ukutshalwa kwezimali okuningi kwangaphandle futhi ekhula ngokushesha.
Ngaphambi kokugqashuka komqhele omusha, amazwe ase-ASEAN agcina izinga lokukhula kwe-GDP minyaka yonke elingaba ngu-5% iminyaka eminingi, futhi i-ASEAN ibilokhu ibhekwa "njengenye yezifunda ezisebenza kahle kakhulu emhlabeni".
Kodwa ngenxa yomqhele omusha othi “black swan”, ngo-2020, amazwe amahlanu kwayisithupha angamalungu amakhulu e-ASEAN, i-Indonesia, iSingapore, iMalaysia, iPhilippines, iThailand namanye amazwe, abonise ukukhula okungekuhle, yiVietnam kuphela “kuphela”, agcina ukukhula okuhle, kodwa futhi ehle kakhulu, ngamaphesenti angu-2.9 kuphela.
Kodwa-ke, kulindeleke kabanzi ukuthi umnotho wamazwe ase-ASEAN uzobuyela esimweni sawo ngo-2021, njengakwezinye izindawo emhlabeni, futhi umfutho uqine nakakhulu, phela, izinzuzo eziyisisekelo zalesi sifunda azikashintshi.
Yehlisa umkhawulo wesigaba se-industrial chain
Kusukela ekuhlukanisweni kochungechunge lwezimboni phakathi kwamazwe aseShayina namazwe ase-ASEAN, iShayina isezingeni eliphezulu embonini yokukhiqiza, kanti amazwe ase-ASEAN anezinzuzo ezimbonini ezidinga abasebenzi abaningi ngenxa yenzuzo yawo yabantu. Ngaphambilini, iShayina ibilokhu itshalwa imali ngqo emazweni ase-ASEAN, i-RCEP yasayina, uchungechunge lwezimboni olusezingeni eliphansi luzosheshisa ukudluliselwa.
Enye yezinto ezizuzisa kakhulu izoba imboni yezindwangu nezingubo.
Njengenkampani enkulu kunazo zonke yokuthumela izindwangu emhlabeni, iShayina inezinzuzo zokukhiqizwa kweketanga lemboni yonke, njengocwaningo nentuthuko yemboni, inani eliphezulu elengeziwe, isikhathi sokulethwa esisheshayo esimelene nesikhathi esifushane, ama-oda omkhiqizo ayinkimbinkimbi, njll. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, inzuzo yezindleko zabasebenzi baphesheya kwezilwandle eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia iyamangalisa. Inzuzo yentela emakethe ye-EU eNyakatho Melika ithatha ithuba lokuqala.
Ngaphandle kwezindwangu nezingubo, imboni yepulasitiki esekwe kumathayi izozuza nasekusayinweni kwe-RCEP. I-China ingumkhiqizi wamathayi omkhulu kunawo wonke emhlabeni, kodwa ukuncika kwangaphandle kwerabha yemvelo e-China cishe kungama-87%. Njengoba i-China ijoyina i-RCEP, ingenisa irabha yemvelo evela eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia esikhathini esizayo noma ngeke ifinyelele ngempela intela, kuyinzuzo enkulu embonini yamathayi erabha yase-China.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, kuyaphawuleka kakhulu ukuthi i-RCEP imise imithetho efanayo yemvelaphi, ezonciphisa izindleko zokutshalwa kwezimali zamabhizinisi esifundeni. Kwezohwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe, inani elikhulu lemikhiqizo kusukela ekukhiqizeni kuya enkambisweni yokugcina yemakethe, ngokuvamile ngokusebenzisa ukuthengiselana okuningi okuwela imingcele. Umthetho oqongelelekayo wesifunda emithethweni yemvelaphi usho ukuthi ingxenye yamabhizinisi athenga esifundeni ifinyelela ku-40%, futhi umkhiqizo ungabhekwa njengovela esifundeni, ngaleyo ndlela ujabulele amalungiselelo akhethekile. Lokhu kuzokhuthaza ukuthuthukiswa okuqhubekayo nokuthuthukiswa kwamaketanga okuhlinzeka ngezifunda futhi kuholele ekukhuleni okukhulu ekuhwebeni nasekutshalweni kwezimali ngaphakathi kwesifunda.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Mashi-30-2021