I-RCEP iqhumise i-dividend yemarike yaseMzantsi-mpuma Asia!
Isivumelwano soBambiswano lwezoQoqosho oluBanzi lweSithili (i-Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, RCEP) satyikitywa ngokusesikweni ngomhla we-15 kweyeNkanga 2020.Isixhumi sebhloko yesiphelo seephini ezimbini, intambo yeribhoni ethe tyaba kwaye izibonisi zemoto kufuneka kuqatshelwe.
Okwangoku, iChina igqibile ukuvunywa kwesivumelwano sobudlelwane bezoqoqosho esibanzi sengingqi, oko kukuthi, isivumelwano se-RCEP, kwaye ibe lilizwe lokuqala ukuvuma esi sivumelwano. Ukongeza, iThailand ivumile esi Sivumelwano. Onke amazwe angamalungu e-RCEP abonise ukuba aza kuvuma esi Sivumelwano ekupheleni kwalo nyaka kwaye enze kube lula ukuqala ukusebenza ngomhla woku-1 kuJanuwari kunyaka ozayo.
Amazwe ali-15 atyikitye esi sivumelwano ayenabemi abamalunga ne-3.6 yeebhiliyoni, okanye phantse isiqingatha sabantu abamalunga ne-7.8 yeebhiliyoni kwihlabathi. Ngoqoqosho olumalunga ne-27 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi, okanye malunga nesinye kwisithathu se-GDP yehlabathi, kunye nomthamo worhwebo omalunga nesinye kwisithathu somthamo worhwebo lwehlabathi, la mazwe ali-15 yi-RCEP yeyona ndawo inabemi abaninzi, inkulu kwezoqoqosho kunye norhwebo enamathuba amaninzi ophuhliso.
Kodwa ndiyoyika ukuba kukho abahlobo abaninzi bezorhwebo zangaphandle abangaziqondiyo, eneneni, i-RCEP yokuqala, yi-ASEAN.
Amazwe ase-ASEAN aveza ingcamango ye-RCEP ngo-2011; ngaloo nyaka mnye, iinkokeli zamazwe alishumi zayivuma ngokusesikweni le ngcamango kwingqungquthela ye-ASEAN.
Amazwe ali-10 ase-ASEAN, kunye neenkokheli zaseTshayina, eJapan, kwiRiphabliki yaseKorea, eIndiya, eOstreliya naseNew Zealand, akhuphe ingxelo edibeneyo malunga nokuqaliswa kweengxoxo > isivumelwano esibanzi sobudlelwane bezoqoqosho bengingqi e-
Emva koko, i-ASEAN ibisoloko ikhuthaza ukusayinwa ngokusesikweni kwe-RCEP. Umzekelo, iVietnam, iqabane lethu lokuqala lokurhweba kwi-ASEAN, igxininise ukuba ukusayinwa kwe-RCEP bekusoloko kungenye yezinto eziphambili ekuhlanganisweni kweVietnam kwisicwangciso samazwe ngamazwe, ngelixa iMalaysia, ilungu lesibini ngobukhulu le-ASEAN, ikwathe izivumelwano zenkqubela phambili akufuneki zithintelwe yiIndiya.
Kuqoqosho lwengingqi iyonke, kukho izivumelwano zorhwebo olukhululekileyo phakathi kwamazwe ase-ASEAN kunye ne-ASEAN iyonke kunye namanye amazwe amahlanu angamalungu, i-RCEP ithetha ukwanda kwezivumelwano ezikhoyo ngoku.
Ngokubanzi, ukuphunyezwa kwezivumelwano zerhafu ngamalungu e-RCEP, ukufikelela kwimarike evulekileyo, ukususwa kwemiqobo echaphazela urhwebo, kunye nokwenza lula iinkqubo zokususwa kwerhafu kuya kunciphisa iindleko zorhwebo kummandla we-RCEP kwaye kukhuthaze ukwenziwa lula korhwebo, okuya kudlala indima entle ekukhuthazeni ukukhula korhwebo kunye notyalo-mali kulo mmandla. Ukunciphisa okudibeneyo kwerhafu kwizinto ezimalunga nama-90 ekhulwini zerhafu ngamalungu kuya kukhuthaza amandla okwanda korhwebo kunye notyalo-mali kumazwe alo mmandla.
Kwelinye icala, ngokwezibalo, ishishini lemveliso laseTshayina libalelwa kwi-65% ye-RCEP, inani labemi liyi-64%, kwaye umthamo wezoqoqosho yi-55%, nto leyo inkulu kakhulu kunalo naliphi na elinye ilizwe kwi-RCEP, nto leyo egqiba ekubeni iTshayina inesikhundla esiphambili kwi-RCEP. I-RCEP iza kugxila kwiTshayina, icandelo le-industrial chain, eliluncedo kakhulu kwiTshayina ukuseka inkqubo yayo yezoqoqosho kunye nefuthe lamazwe ngamazwe.
Kubantu abarhweba ngaphandle, zeziphi amathuba anokuba luncedo ekuzifumaneni?
Amandla amakhulu emarike
I-ASEAN ngoku inamazwe ali-10 angamalungu ngokolandelelwano lwe-GDP: i-Indonesia, iThailand, iSingapore, iMalaysia, iPhilippines, iVietnam, iMyanmar, iCambodia, iLaos kunye neBrunei. Inani lilonke labemi belizwe ngalinye ngoku limalunga nezigidi ezingama-660. Xa idibene neIndiya, iPakistan kunye neBangladesh ezikufutshane, enabemi abangaphezu kweebhiliyoni ezi-2.5, phantse kabini kuneTshayina, inani elikhulu labemi lizisa namathuba oshishino angenasiphelo.
Kwingxelo yasekuqaleni kuka-Okthobha, iCoopers, indlu yasePrice water, yahlalutya ukuba uninzi lwamazwe ase-ASEAN ayesekwinqanaba lokuqala lophuhliso loqoqosho kwaye isiseko sawo soqoqosho sasibuthathaka. Ngenxa yophuhliso olukhawulezileyo kwiminyaka yakutshanje, umgangatho wokuphila wabantu basekuhlaleni uphucuke kakhulu, kwaye imfuno kunye nokusetyenziswa kweemveliso ezahlukeneyo kuye kwanda.
Okwangoku, i-ASEAN inokwahlulwahlulwa ibe zii-echelons ezintathu ngokwenqanaba lophuhliso loqoqosho:
Inqanaba lokuqala: iSingapore neBrunei
La mazwe mabini anenkqubo yolwakhiwo lweziseko zophuhliso kunye noqoqosho olugqibeleleyo, kodwa luthintelwe yindawo yomhlaba kunye neendleko eziphezulu zabasebenzi, umthamo wemizi-mveliso mncinane kakhulu, kwaye ikakhulu ugxile kushishino lokuvelisa olukumgangatho ophezulu.
Inqanaba lesibini: iMalaysia neThailand
Isiseko semizi-mveliso sala mazwe mabini sigqibelele, inqanaba lemfundo yesizwe liphezulu, kwaye ukuqokelelwa kwale misebenzi kwiminyaka embalwa edlulileyo kuye kwakha inkqubo yothungelwano lokubonelela egqibeleleyo kwiindawo ezithile, enokhuphiswano olukhulu.
Inqanaba lesithathu: iIndonesia, iiPhilippines, iVietnam, iMyanmar, iCambodia kunye neLaos
Isiseko semizi-mveliso sale lizwe lincinci sibuthathaka kwaye inqanaba lophuhliso lwesizwe liphantsi, kodwa ngenxa yenani elikhulu labasebenzi kunye nexabiso eliphantsi labasebenzi, linokhuphiswano oluphezulu kumashishini asebenzisa abasebenzi abaninzi. La mazwe abonwa ngabatyali-mali bamanye amazwe njengeTshayina elandelayo, etsala utyalo-mali oluninzi lwangaphandle kwaye ikhula ngokukhawuleza.
Ngaphambi kokuba kuqhambuke ubukhosi obutsha, amazwe ase-ASEAN agcina izinga lokukhula kwe-GDP ngonyaka elimalunga ne-5% kangangeminyaka emininzi, kwaye i-ASEAN yayisoloko ithathwa njenge "nye yezona ndawo zisebenza kakuhle kwihlabathi".
Kodwa ngenxa yesithsaba esitsha esithi "black swan", ngo-2020, amazwe amahlanu kwayisithandathu angamalungu amakhulu e-ASEAN, i-Indonesia, iSingapore, iMalaysia, iPhilippines, iThailand kunye namanye amazwe, abonise ukukhula okungalunganga, yiVietnam kuphela "eyodwa", egcine ukukhula okuhle, kodwa ikwanciphise kakhulu isantya, yi-2.9 ekhulwini kuphela.
Nangona kunjalo, kulindeleke ngokubanzi ukuba uqoqosho lwamazwe ase-ASEAN luza kubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo ngo-2021, njengakwezinye iindawo zehlabathi, kwaye isantya siqine ngakumbi, emva kwayo yonke loo nto, izibonelelo ezisisiseko zalo mmandla azitshintshanga.
Yehlisa umda wolwahlulo lwemixokelelwane yemizi-mveliso
Ukususela kulwahlulo lwekhonkco lemizi-mveliso phakathi kweTshayina namazwe ase-ASEAN, iTshayina ikwizinga eliphezulu kushishino lwemveliso, kwaye amazwe ase-ASEAN anezibonelelo kumashishini asebenzisa abasebenzi abaninzi ngenxa yenzuzo yawo yabantu. Ngaphambili, iTshayina ibinotyalo-mali oluthe ngqo kumazwe ase-ASEAN, njengoko i-RCEP isayine, uthotho lwemizi-mveliso oluphantsi luya kukhawulezisa ukudluliselwa.
Enye yezona zinto ziluncedo kakhulu iya kuba lishishini leempahla zelaphu.
Njengelizwe elithumela impahla ngaphandle kwempahla ngelaphu elikhulu kwihlabathi liphela, iTshayina ineengenelo zemveliso yecandelo lonke lemveliso, njengophando nophuhliso lweshishini, ixabiso eliphezulu elongezelelekileyo, ixesha lokuhanjiswa ngokukhawuleza elichasene nexesha elifutshane, ii-odolo zemveliso ezinzima, njl. Kwelinye icala, inzuzo yeendleko zabasebenzi phesheya koMzantsi-mpuma Asia iyamangalisa. Inzuzo yerhafu kwimarike yaseMntla Melika ye-EU ithatha ithuba lokuqala.
Ngaphandle kwempahla yokunxiba kunye neempahla, ishishini leplastiki elisekwe kwiitayara liza kuxhamla kwisivumelwano seRCEP. I-China yeyona mveliso inkulu yeetayara ehlabathini, kodwa ukuxhomekeka kwangaphandle kwerabha yendalo e-China kumalunga ne-87%. Njengoko i-China ijoyina i-RCEP, ingenisa irabha yendalo evela kuMzantsi-mpuma we-Asia kwixesha elizayo okanye ayizukuhlawula irhafu, yinzuzo enkulu kwishishini lerabha lase-China.
Ngaphezu koko, kuyaphawuleka ngokukodwa ukuba i-RCEP imisele imithetho efanayo yemvelaphi, eya kunciphisa iindleko zotyalo-mali lwamashishini kulo mmandla. Kurhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe, inani elikhulu leemveliso ukusuka ekuvelisweni ukuya kwinkqubo yokugqibela yemarike, ngokufuthi ngokusebenzisa iintengiselwano ezininzi eziwela imida. Umthetho oqokelelweyo wengingqi kwimithetho yemvelaphi uthetha ukuba inani lamashishini athengayo kulo mmandla lifikelela kwi-40%, kwaye imveliso inokuthathwa njengemvelaphi yengingqi, ngaloo ndlela inandipha amalungiselelo akhethekileyo. Oku kuya kukhuthaza ukuphuculwa ngakumbi kunye nokuphuculwa kweenkqubo zokubonelela ngengingqi kwaye kukhokelele ekukhuleni okukhulu kurhwebo lwangaphakathi kunye notyalo-mali.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Matshi-30-2021