RCEP yaburitsa dividend yemusika weSoutheast Asia!
Chibvumirano cheRegional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, RCEP) chakasainwa zviri pamutemo musi wa15 Mbudzi 2020.Chinongedzo che terminal block chine mapini maviri, tambo yeribhoni yakati sandara uye zvinoratidza mota zvinofanira kucherechedzwa.
Parizvino, China yapedza kubvumidza chibvumirano chekudyidzana kwehupfumi chedunhu, kureva chibvumirano cheRCEP, uye yava nyika yekutanga kusimbisa chibvumirano ichi. Pamusoro pezvo, Thailand yabvumidza Chibvumirano ichi. Nyika dzese dziri nhengo dzeRCEP dzakaratidza kuti dzichasimbisa Chibvumirano ichi pakupera kwegore rino uye kuita kuti chitange kushanda musi wa1 Ndira gore rinouya.
Nyika gumi neshanu dzakasaina chibvumirano ichi dzaive nevanhu vanosvika mabhiriyoni matatu nehafu, kana kuti hafu yevanhu vanosvika mabhiriyoni manomwe nesere pasi rose. Nehupfumi hunosvika mabhiriyoni makumi maviri nenomwe emadhora ($27 trillion), kana kuti chikamu chimwe muzvitatu cheGDP yepasi rose, uye huwandu hwekutengeserana hunosvika chikamu chimwe muzvitatu chehuwandu hwekutengeserana pasi rose, nyika gumi neshanu idzi ndiRCEP inzvimbo ine vanhu vakawanda pasi rose, hupfumi hukuru uye nzvimbo dzekutengeserana dzine mukana wekubudirira zvakanyanya.
Asi ndinotya kuti kune shamwari dzakawanda dzekutengeserana nedzimwe nyika dzisinganzwisise, kutaura chokwadi, RCEP yekutanga, iASEAN.
Nyika dzeASEAN dzakaburitsa pfungwa yeRCEP muna 2011; mugore iroro, vatungamiriri venyika gumi vakabvumidza zviri pamutemo pfungwa iyi pamusangano weASEAN.
Nyika gumi dzeASEAN, pamwe chete nevatungamiriri veChina, Japan, Republic of Korea, India, Australia neNew Zealand, dzakaburitsa chirevo chakabatana pamusoro pekutanga kwenhaurirano > chibvumirano chakazara chekudyidzana kwehupfumi hwedunhu mu
Mushure meizvozvo, ASEAN yave ichikurudzira zvikuru kusaina kweRCEP zviri pamutemo. Semuenzaniso, Vietnam, mubatsiri wedu wekutanga wekutengeserana muASEAN, yakasimbisa kuti kusaina kweRCEP kwagara kuri chimwe chezvinhu zvinokosheswa nekubatanidzwa kweVietnam muhurongwa hwepasi rose, nepo Malaysia, iyo iri nhengo yechipiri pakukura yeASEAN, yakatiwo zvibvumirano zvekufambira mberi hazvifanirwe kukanganiswa neIndia.
Kune hupfumi hwedunhu rose, kune zvibvumirano zvekutengeserana zvakasununguka pakati penyika dzeASEAN neASEAN pamwe chete nedzimwe nyika shanu dziri nhengo, RCEP zvichireva kuwedzera kwezvibvumirano zviripo.
Zvose zviri zviviri, kushandiswa kwemitemo yemitero nenhengo dzeRCEP, kupinda mumusika wakavhurika, kubviswa kwezvipingamupinyi zvinokanganisa kutengeserana, uye kurerutswa kwemitemo yekubvisa mitero yemutero zvichawedzera kuderedza mari yekutengeserana munharaunda yeRCEP uye kukurudzira kutengeserana, izvo zvichabatsira mukusimudzira kukura kwekutengeserana nekudyara kwenzvimbo iyi. Kuderedzwa kwemitero yezvinhu zvinosvika 90 muzana nenhengo kuchakurudzira mukana wekuwedzera kutengeserana nekudyara mari munyika dziri munharaunda iyi.
Kune rumwe rutivi, zvichienderana nehuwandu, indasitiri yekugadzira yeChina inoumba 65% yeRCEP, huwandu hwevanhu huri 64%, uye huwandu hwehupfumi huri 55%, inova yakakura kupfuura chero imwe nyika muRCEP, izvo zvinoratidza kuti China ine chinzvimbo chiri pedyo nekutonga muRCEP. RCEP ichatarisa paChina, chikamu checheni yemaindasitiri, icho chinobatsira zvikuru China kuumba hurongwa hwayo hwehupfumi uye simba repasi rose.
Kune vanhu vanotengeserana kunze kwenyika, mikana ipi ichave yakakosha kuchera?
Kukwanisa kukuru kwemusika
ASEAN yava nenyika gumi dziri nhengo dzayo muGDP yayo: Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos neBrunei. Huwandu hwevanhu munyika imwe neimwe parizvino hunosvika mamiriyoni mazana matanhatu nemakumi matanhatu. Pamwe chete neIndia, Pakistan neBangladesh dziri pedyo, dzine vanhu vanopfuura mabhiriyoni maviri nehafu, vanodarika kaviri kupfuura China, huwandu hwevanhu vakawanda hunounzawo mikana yebhizinesi isingaperi.
Mumushumo wekutanga kwaGumiguru, kambani yePrice water Coopers yakaongorora kuti nyika zhinji dzeASEAN dzakanga dzichiri muchikamu chekutanga chebudiriro yehupfumi uye hwaro hwehupfumi hwadzo hwakanga husina kusimba. Nekukura kuri kuita zvinhu mumakore achangopfuura, mararamiro evanhu veko akavandudzika zvakanyanya, uye kudiwa nekushandiswa kwezvinhu zvakasiyana-siyana kwave kuwedzera.
Parizvino, ASEAN inogona kukamurwa kuita zvikamu zvitatu zvichienderana nekukura kwehupfumi:
Chikamu chekutanga: Singapore neBrunei
Nyika mbiri idzi dzine hurongwa hwakanaka hwekuvaka zvivakwa uye hupfumi, asi hushoma nekuda kwenzvimbo yepasi uye mari yakawanda yevashandi, huwandu hwemaindasitiri hushoma, uye hunonyanya kutarisisa maindasitiri emhando yepamusoro ekugadzira.
Chikamu chechipiri: Malaysia neThailand
Hwaro hwemaindasitiri enyika mbiri idzi hwakakwana, dzidzo yenyika yakakwira, uye kuunganidzwa kwacho mumakumi emakore apfuura kwakagadzira sisitimu yakakwana yezvekugovera mune dzimwe nzvimbo dzakatarwa, iyo ine makwikwi makuru.
Chikamu chechitatu: Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia neLaos
Huwandu hwemaindasitiri munyika iyi hwakaderera uye budiriro yenyika yakaderera, asi nekuda kwehuwandu hwevanhu vakapfuma mumabasa uye mutengo wakaderera wevashandi, ine makwikwi akakwira mumaindasitiri anoshandisa vashandi vakawanda. Nyika idzi dzinoonekwa nevazhinji vanoisa mari kunze kwenyika seChina inotevera, zvichikwezva mari yakawanda kubva kune dzimwe nyika uye zvichikura nekukurumidza.
Nyika dzeASEAN dzisati dzatanga hupfumi hutsva, dzakaramba dzichikura neGDP ye5% pagore kwemakore mazhinji, uye ASEAN yagara ichionekwa se "imwe yenzvimbo dzinoshanda zvakanaka pasi rose".
Asi nekuda kwekorona itsva "black swan", muna 2020, nyika shanu kubva kunhanhatu huru dzeASEAN, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand nedzimwe nyika, dzakaratidza kukura kusina kunaka, Vietnam chete ndiyo "yakaramba ichikura zvakanaka, asi yakazodererawo zvakanyanya, 2.9 muzana chete.
Zvisinei, zvinotarisirwa kuti hupfumi hwenyika dzeASEAN huchatanga kupora muna 2021, sezvakaita kune dzimwe nyika, uye simba rayo rakasimba, pamusoro pezvose, zvakanakira zvedunhu iri hazvina kuchinja.
Deredza chikamu chechikamu cheindasitiri
Kubva pakupatsanurwa kwecheni yemaindasitiri pakati peChina nenyika dzeASEAN, China iri pakati peindasitiri yepamusoro yekugadzira, uye nyika dzeASEAN dzine mukana muindasitiri dzinoshandisa vashandi vakawanda nekuda kwehuwandu hwevanhu. Pakutanga, China yakadyara zvakananga munyika dzeASEAN, RCEP yakasaina, cheni yemaindasitiri yepasi ichakurumidzisa kutamiswa uku.
Imwe yeinonyanya kubatsira ichange iri indasitiri yemachira nembatya.
Senyika inotengesera kunze machira akawanda pasi rose, China ine zvakanakira zvekugadzirwa kwemachira ese, zvakaita sekutsvagisa nekuvandudza maindasitiri, kukosha kwakanyanya, nguva yekutumira nekukurumidza, kuodha zvigadzirwa zvakaoma, nezvimwewo. Kune rumwe rutivi, mukana wekubhadhara vashandi vekuSoutheast Asia unoshamisa. Mutero wemari nemusika weNorth America weEU ndiwo mukana wekutanga.
Kunze kwemachira nezvipfeko, indasitiri yepurasitiki yakagadzirwa nematayi ichabatsirwawo nekusaina kweRCEP. China ndiyo inogadzira matayi akawanda pasi rose, asi kutsamira kwerabha yechisikigo muChina kuri pa87%. Sezvo China ichipinda muRCEP, inotenga rabha yechisikigo kubva kuSoutheast Asia mune ramangwana kana kuti ichange isina muripo wemitero, ibatsiro guru kuindasitiri yerabha yeChina.
Uyezve, zvinonyanya kukosha kuti RCEP yakagadza mitemo yakafanana yekwakabva, iyo ichaderedza mari yekudyara yemakambani munharaunda iyi. Mukutengeserana kwenyika dzese, huwandu hwakawanda hwezvigadzirwa kubva pakugadzira kusvika pakugadzirwa kwemusika, kazhinji kuburikidza nekutengeserana kwakawanda kwemiganhu. Mutemo wedunhu mumitemo yekwakabva zvinoreva kuti huwandu hwemakambani anotenga munharaunda iyi hunosvika 40%, uye chigadzirwa chinogona kuonekwa sekwakabva munharaunda, nokudaro chichifarirwa nehurongwa hwakakosha. Izvi zvichakurudzira kuvandudzwa nekusimudzirwa kwecheni dzekutengesa dzenharaunda uye zvichatungamira mukukura kukuru mukutengeserana kwepakati penharaunda nekudyara.
Nguva yekutumira: Kurume-30-2021