Hoʻopau ka RCEP i ka mahele waiwai o ka mākeke ʻo Asia Hikina Hema!
Ua kau inoa kūhelu ʻia ka ʻAelike Hui Pū ʻIa Hoʻokele Waiwai Kūikawā ʻĀpana (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, RCEP) ma ka lā 15 Nowemapa 2020.Hoʻohui poloka terminal 2 pine, uwea lipine pālahalaha a me nā mea hoʻomālamalama kaʻa pono e hoʻomaopopo ʻia.
I kēia manawa, ua hoʻopau ʻo Kina i ka ʻāpono ʻana o ka ʻaelike hui hoʻokele waiwai piha ʻāpana, ʻo ia hoʻi, ka ʻaelike RCEP, a ua lilo ʻo ia i ʻāina mua e ʻāpono i ka ʻaelike. Eia kekahi, ua ʻāpono ʻo Thailand i ka ʻaelike. Ua hōʻike nā mokuʻāina lālā a pau o ka RCEP e ʻāpono lākou i ka ʻaelike ma ka hopena o kēia makahiki a e hoʻomaʻamaʻa i kona komo ʻana i ka mana ma ka lā 1 o Ianuali o ka makahiki aʻe.
ʻO ka heluna kanaka o nā ʻāina he 15 i kau inoa i ka ʻaelike he 3.6 biliona ka nui, a kokoke i ka hapalua o ka heluna kanaka o ka honua he 7.8 biliona. Me ka hoʻokele waiwai o kahi $27 trillion, a i ʻole ma kahi o hoʻokahi hapakolu o ka GDP o ka honua, a me ka nui o ke kālepa o kahi o hoʻokahi hapakolu o ka nui o ke kālepa o ka honua, ʻo nā ʻāina he 15 ʻo RCEP ka ʻāina heluna kanaka nui loa o ka honua, ka hoʻokele waiwai nui loa a me ke kālepa me ka hiki ke hoʻomohala.
Akā makaʻu wau he nui nā hoaaloha kālepa haole i maopopo ʻole, ʻo ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻo ka RCEP mua loa, ʻo ia ʻo ASEAN.
Ua hoʻolauna nā ʻāina ASEAN i ka manaʻo o RCEP i ka makahiki 2011; i kēlā makahiki hoʻokahi, ua ʻāpono kūhelu nā alakaʻi o nā ʻāina he ʻumi i ka manaʻo ma ka ʻaha kūkā ASEAN.
Ua hoʻopuka nā ʻāina ASEAN he 10, me nā alakaʻi o Kina, Iapana, Repubalika o Korea, India, Australia a me Aotearoa, i kahi ʻōlelo hui e pili ana i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o nā kūkākūkā > he ʻaelike hui hoʻokele waiwai kūloko piha ma
Ma hope o kēlā, ua hoʻolaha ikaika ʻo ASEAN i ke kau inoa kūhelu ʻana o ka RCEP. ʻO Vietnam, ko mākou hoa kālepa mua ma ASEAN, no ka laʻana, ua hoʻoikaika ʻo ia ʻo ke kau inoa ʻana o RCEP kekahi o nā mea nui o ka hoʻohui ʻana o Vietnam i loko o ka hoʻolālā honua, ʻoiai ʻo Malaysia, ka lua o ka lālā nui loa o ASEAN, ua ʻōlelo pū ʻo ia ʻaʻole pono e keakea ʻia nā ʻaelike holomua e India.
No ka hoʻokele waiwai kūloko ma ke ʻano holoʻokoʻa, aia nā ʻaelike kālepa manuahi bilateral ma waena o nā ʻāina ASEAN a me ASEAN holoʻokoʻa a me nā ʻāina lālā ʻelima ʻē aʻe, ʻo RCEP kahi hoʻonui like ʻana o nā ʻaelike e kū nei.
Ma keʻano holoʻokoʻa, ʻo ka hoʻokō like ʻana o nā ʻae ʻana i nā ʻauhau e nā lālā RCEP, ke komo ʻana i ka mākeke ākea, ka wehe ʻana i nā mea pale e pili ana i ke kālepa, a me ka hoʻomaʻalahi ʻana i nā kaʻina hana hoʻomaʻemaʻe dute e hōʻemi hou aku i nā kumukūʻai kālepa ma ka ʻāpana RCEP a paipai i ka hoʻomaʻamaʻa ʻana i ke kālepa, kahi e pāʻani ai i kahi kuleana maikaʻi i ka hoʻolaha ʻana i ka ulu ʻana o ke kālepa a me ka hoʻopukapuka kālā o ka ʻāina. ʻO ka hōʻemi pū ʻana o nā ʻauhau ma kahi o 90 pakeneka o nā mea ʻauhau e nā lālā e hoʻoulu i ka hiki ke hoʻonui i ke kālepa a me ka hoʻopukapuka kālā ma nā ʻāina o ka ʻāina.
Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, e like me nā helu helu, ʻo ka ʻoihana hana o Kina no 65% o ka RCEP, ʻo ka heluna kanaka he 64%, a ʻo ka nui o ka hoʻokele waiwai he 55%, ʻoi aku ka nui ma mua o nā ʻāina ʻē aʻe ma ka RCEP, ka mea e hoʻoholo ai he kokoke i ke kūlana koʻikoʻi ko Kina ma ka RCEP. E kālele ana ʻo RCEP ma Kina, ka mahele ʻana o ke kaulahao ʻoihana, he mea pono loa ia no Kina e hoʻokumu i kāna ʻōnaehana hoʻokele waiwai ponoʻī a me ka honua o ka mana.
No ka poʻe kālepa haole, he aha nā manawa kūpono e pono ai ke ʻeli ʻia?
Ka hiki ke kūʻai aku i ka mākeke nui
I kēia manawa, he 10 mau ʻāina lālā o ASEAN ma ke ʻano o ka nui o ka GDP: ʻInidonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos a me Brunei. ʻO ka heluna kanaka o kēlā me kēia ʻāina i kēia manawa ma kahi o 660 miliona. Me India, Pakistan a me Bangladesh, me ka heluna kanaka ma mua o 2.5 biliona, kokoke i ka pālua o ka heluna kanaka o Kina, lawe mai ka nui o ka heluna kanaka i nā manawa kūpono ʻoihana pau ʻole.
Ma kahi hōʻike i ka hoʻomaka o ʻOkakopa, ua kālailai ʻo Price water house Coopers aia ka hapa nui o nā ʻāina ASEAN i nā pae mua o ka hoʻomohala waiwai a ua nāwaliwali ko lākou waihona waiwai. Me ka wikiwiki o ka hoʻomohala ʻana i nā makahiki i hala iho nei, ua hoʻomaikaʻi nui ʻia ke kūlana ola o ka poʻe kūloko, a ke piʻi nei ke koi a me ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā huahana like ʻole.
I kēia manawa, hiki ke hoʻokaʻawale ʻia ʻo ASEAN i ʻekolu mau pae e like me ka pae o ka hoʻomohala waiwai:
Pae mua: Singapore a me Brunei
Loaʻa i kēia mau ʻāina ʻelua ke kūkulu ʻana i nā pono hana a me ka ʻōnaehana hoʻokele waiwai kūpono, akā i kaupalena ʻia e ka ʻāina a me ke kumukūʻai hana kiʻekiʻe, ua liʻiliʻi ka nui o nā ʻoihana, a ua kau nui ʻia i ka ʻoihana hana kiʻekiʻe.
ʻEkelona ʻelua: Malekia a me Thailand
He kūpono loa ke kahua ʻoihana o nā ʻāina ʻelua, ʻoi aku ke kiʻekiʻe o ka pae hoʻonaʻauao aupuni, a ʻo ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana i nā makahiki he ʻumi i hala iho nei ua hoʻokumu i kahi ʻōnaehana kaulahao lako kūpono ma kekahi mau kahua kikoʻī, kahi hoʻokūkū kiʻekiʻe.
Pae ʻekolu: ʻInidonesia, Pilipine, Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia a me Laos
He nāwaliwali iki ke kahua ʻoihana o kēia ʻāina pae kiʻekiʻe a haʻahaʻa ka pae o ka hoʻomohala ʻāina, akā mahalo i ka heluna kanaka hana waiwai a me ke kumukūʻai hana haʻahaʻa, ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe o kona hoʻokūkū ma nā ʻoihana hana nui. Ua ʻike ʻia kēia mau ʻāina e nā mea hoʻopukapuka kālā haole he Kina e hiki mai ana, e huki ana i ka nui o nā hoʻopukapuka kālā haole a ulu wikiwiki.
Ma mua o ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ka lei aliʻi hou, ua mālama nā ʻāina ASEAN i kahi ulu ulu GDP makahiki ma kahi o 5% no nā makahiki he nui, a ua manaʻo ʻia ʻo ASEAN no ka manawa lōʻihi ʻo "kekahi o nā ʻāina hana maikaʻi loa ma ka honua".
Akā ma muli o ka lei aliʻi hou "swan ʻeleʻele", i ka makahiki 2020, ʻelima o nā ʻāina lālā nui ʻeono o ASEAN, ʻo Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand a me nā ʻāina ʻē aʻe, i hōʻike i ka ulu maikaʻi ʻole, ʻo Vietnam wale nō "wale nō", mālama i ka ulu maikaʻi, akā ua lohi nui hoʻi, he 2.9 pakeneka wale nō.
Eia nō naʻe, ua manaʻo nui ʻia e huli ka hoʻōla ʻana o nā hoʻokele waiwai o nā ʻāina ASEAN i ka makahiki 2021, e like me ke koena o ka honua, a ʻoi aku ka ikaika o ka momentum, ma hope o nā mea a pau, ʻaʻole i loli nā pono kumu o ka ʻāina.
E hoʻohaʻahaʻa i ka paepae o ka mahele kaulahao ʻoihana
Mai ka mahele ʻana o ke kaulahao ʻoihana ma waena o Kina a me nā ʻāina ASEAN, aia ʻo Kina ma kahi kiʻekiʻe o ka ʻoihana hana, a he mau pono ko nā ʻāina ASEAN i nā ʻoihana hana nui ma muli o kā lākou mahele demographic. Ma mua, ua loaʻa iā Kina ka hoʻopukapuka pololei ma nā ʻāina ASEAN, ua kau inoa ʻo RCEP, e hoʻolalelale ke kaulahao ʻoihana haʻahaʻa i ka hoʻoili ʻana.
ʻO kekahi o nā mea e pono nui ai, ʻo ia ka ʻoihana lole a me ka lole.
Ma ke ʻano he mea hoʻokuʻu aku lole nui loa ma ka honua, loaʻa iā Kina nā pono o ka hana kaulahao ʻoihana holoʻokoʻa, e like me ka noiʻi a me ka hoʻomohala ʻana o ka ʻoihana, ka waiwai i hoʻohui ʻia, ka wā hoʻouna wikiwiki a me ka pale ʻana i nā pōkole, nā kauoha huahana paʻakikī, a pēlā aku. Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, he mea kupaianaha ka pono o ke kumukūʻai hana ma waho o Asia Hikina Hema. ʻO ka pono o ke kumukūʻai me ka mākeke ʻAmelika ʻĀkau o EU ka manawa mua.
Ma waho aʻe o nā lole a me nā lole, e pōmaikaʻi pū ka ʻoihana palaki i hana ʻia me nā huila mai ke kau inoa ʻana o RCEP. ʻO Kina ka mea hana huila nui loa ma ka honua, akā ʻo ka hilinaʻi kūwaho o ka laholio kūlohelohe ma Kina ma kahi o 87%. I ka wā e hui pū ai ʻo Kina me RCEP, lawe mai i ka laholio kūlohelohe mai Asia Hikina Hema i ka wā e hiki mai ana a i ʻole e hoʻokō maoli i nā ʻauhau ʻole, he pōmaikaʻi nui ia no ka ʻoihana huila laholio o Kina.
Eia kekahi, he mea kūpono loa ia ua hoʻokumu ka RCEP i nā lula kumu like, kahi e hōʻemi ai i nā kumukūʻai hoʻopukapuka kālā o nā ʻoihana ma ka ʻāina. I ke kālepa honua, kahi nui o nā huahana mai ka hana ʻana a hiki i ke kaʻina hana mākeke hope loa, pinepine ma o nā hana he nui ma waena o nā palena. ʻO ke kānāwai hōʻuluʻulu ʻāpana i nā lula kumu, ʻo ia hoʻi ka hapa o nā ʻoihana e kūʻai ana ma ka ʻāina e hiki i ka 40%, a hiki ke manaʻo ʻia ka huahana he kumu ʻāina, no laila e hauʻoli ana i nā hoʻonohonoho makemake. E paipai kēia i ka hoʻomaikaʻi hou ʻana a me ka hoʻonui ʻana i nā kaulahao lako ʻāina a alakaʻi i ka ulu nui ʻana o ke kālepa intraregional a me ka hoʻopukapuka kālā.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Malaki-30-2021