Ua hoʻolaha ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i ka hoʻokau ʻana i kahi ʻauhau 25%! He aha ka hopena o ia mea i nā mea kila a me ka alumini i hoʻokuʻu ʻia aku e Kina?

Ma ka lā 10 o Pepeluali, manawa kūloko, ua kau inoa ʻo Pelekikena mua o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ʻo Donald Trump i kahi kauoha hoʻokō e hoʻolaha ana i ka hoʻokau ʻia ʻana o ka uku hoʻolimalima 25% ma nā kila a me ka alumini āpau i lawe ʻia mai i ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa. Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Trump i ka lā hoʻokahi ʻaʻohe "ʻokoʻa a hoʻokuʻu paha" no nā koi pili.Nā Mea Hoʻohui Poloka Terminal, Mea Hoʻohui Frc a me Nā mea hoʻomālamalama huinahā hiki ke hopena.

I kona wā mua, ua kau ʻo Trump i kahi ʻauhau 25% ma ke kila i lawe ʻia mai i ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa a me kahi ʻauhau 10% ma ka alumini i lawe ʻia mai i ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa. Ma hope mai, ua hāʻawi ʻia nā quota ʻauhau ʻole i nā hoa kālepa e like me Kanada, Mekiko, ka ʻAhahui ʻEulopa a me United Kingdom.

Ua ʻōlelo nā poʻe loea o ka ʻoihana i kēia manawa ua hoʻokiʻekiʻe nui ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i nā ʻauhau ma nā huahana mai nā ʻāina like ʻole, a ʻaʻole ia e kuhikuhi pololei ʻia i hoʻokahi ʻāina. ʻOi aku ka like, ke hoʻohana nei ia i nā ʻauhau e hoʻoikaika i kāna mau ʻoihana kūloko. No laila, pehea ka nui o ka hopena o kēia i nā mea kila a me ka alumini a Kina e hoʻokuʻu aku ai i ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa?

ʻO ka lawe pololei ʻana aku i nā huahana alumini he hapa liʻiliʻi ia, a ʻo ka hoʻonui ʻana i nā ʻauhau e hoʻonui paha i ke kaumaha ma luna o nā mea kūʻai aku ʻAmelika.

E pili ana i ka hoʻonui ʻia ʻana o ka uku hoʻolimalima ma nā huahana alumini e ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ʻo Wen Xianjun, ka hope pelekikena mua o ka China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association a me ka pelekikena hanohano o ka Shandong Aluminum Industry Association, ua ʻōlelo ʻo ia: "ʻO nā huahana alumini i hoʻokuʻu ʻia aku e Kina i ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i kēia manawa ua loaʻa iā ia kahi ʻauhau piha kiʻekiʻe loa ma muli o nā 'kuleana anti-dumping a me countervailing', a he liʻiliʻi loa nā huahana alumini i hoʻokuʻu ʻia aku i ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa. ʻO nā mea nui i hoʻopilikia ʻia he mau huahana alumini. Hoʻokau ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i nā ʻauhau ma luna o nā mea lawe mai, a ʻo kēia mau ukana ʻauhau e pono e hāpai ʻia e nā mea kūʻai aku ʻAmelika."

Mai ka manaʻo o ke ʻano hoʻokuʻu aku o Kina, ʻo ka nui o ka hoʻokuʻu aku o Kina i kēlā me kēia makahiki o nā huahana alumini ma kahi o 5 a 6 miliona tone, e helu ana i 12.85% o ka hana. I ka makahiki 2023, ʻo Mekiko ka wahi hoʻokuʻu aku nui loa no nā huahana alumini o Kina, e helu ana i 9.6% o ka nui o ka hoʻokuʻu aku o nā huahana alumini. ʻO ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa a me Kanada he 4.6% a me 3.8%, a ʻo nā huahana alumini i hoʻokuʻu ʻia aku i ka ʻĀpana Kūʻai Kūʻokoʻa ʻAmelika ʻĀkau he 18% o ka nui o ka hoʻokuʻu aku o nā huahana alumini o Kina.

Manaʻo ʻo Wen Xianjun e hoʻomau ka hoʻomohala ʻana o ka ʻoihana alumini o Kina i ka hoʻoulu ʻana i nā mākeke mea kūʻai aku hou e hoʻokele i ka lawe ʻana aku i nā huahana alumini Kina. ʻO ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka alumini ma Kina ma ka home, a ʻaʻole nui ka hopena o ke kulekele ʻauhau o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i ka mākeke alumini kūloko.

Ma ke ʻano o ke ʻano hoʻokomo o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, e like me ka ʻikepili o UNComtrade, i ka makahiki 2023, ua lawe mai ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i ka huina o 1.6482 miliona tone o nā huahana alumini, a ma waena o ia mau mea i lawe mai ai he 420,000 tone, 200,000 tone a me 60,000 tone mai Kanada, Kina a me Mekiko, e helu ana i ka huina o 41.7%. ʻO nā kumu o nā huahana alumini i lawe mai ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ua ʻano nui. ʻO nā mea i lawe mai mai nā ʻāina lawe mai ʻelima kiʻekiʻe, ʻo ia hoʻi ʻo Kina, Mekiko, Kanada, India a me Colombia, he 75%, a ʻo nā mea i lawe mai mai Kina he 36%.

I Malaki 2018, ua kau ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i kahi uku hoʻohui he 10% ma nā huahana alumini i lawe ʻia mai a puni ka honua ma muli o nā hopena o ka noiʻi, i hoʻomaka i ka lā 23 o Malaki. ʻO Kanada a me Mekiko wale nō i hoʻokuʻu ʻia. I ka hopena o Kepakemapa 2024, ua hoʻonui ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i ka uku hoʻohui ma kekahi o nā huahana alumini o Kina i 25% a ua kau pū i kahi uku hoʻohui he 25% ma ka bauxite i lawe ʻia aku mai Kina mai. ʻO nā waiwai i hoʻokiʻekiʻe ʻia nā uku hoʻohui mai 7.5% a i 25% e pili ana i ka aneane o nā huahana alumini ma lalo o nā mea 604-7609.

I kēlā manawa, ma muli o nā ʻauhau i kau ʻia e ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ma nā huahana alumini o Kina, ua hoʻemi ʻia ka hapalua o nā huahana alumini i lawe ʻia aku e Kina i ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa. Eia nō naʻe, ua noho ka nui o ka lawe ʻana mai o nā huahana alumini ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ma kahi o 2 miliona tone, ʻoiai ʻo ka lawe ʻana mai o nā huahana alumini mai nā ʻāina ʻē aʻe i uku no ka hapa o ka emi ʻana o nā lawe ʻana mai Kina a i ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa. A hiki i nā waiwai o Kina ke komo i ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ma o ke kālepa hoʻihoʻi hou ʻana ma Mekiko a me Kanada.

Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Li Kui, he mea noiʻi metala nonferrous ma HuaRong Rongda Futures: "I ka wā pōkole, ʻo ka hoʻonui piha ʻana o Trump i nā ʻauhau lawe mai ma ka alumini mai nā ʻāina āpau e hoʻopilikia pololei ʻole i nā mea i hoʻokuʻu aku ʻia e Kina a me ke kālepa hoʻokuʻu hou aku i nā ʻāina e like me Mekiko a me Kanada. Eia nō naʻe, ke noʻonoʻo nei i ka mōʻaukala, ua kū nā huahana alumini o Kina i nā hoʻokolokolo anti-dumping i hoʻomaka ʻia e nā ʻāina he nui, a ʻo nā helu ʻauhau anti-dumping e pili ana mai kahi o 10% a 75%. Ma muli o nā ʻauhau anti-dumping, ua emi mua ka lawe ʻana aku o nā huahana alumini ma kahi o 30% a 60%. No laila, ma lalo o kahi ʻauhau 25%, ʻaʻole i hoʻonui nui ʻia ka loli o nā kumukūʻai alumini. Akā i ka wā waena a me ka lōʻihi, e loaʻa iā ia kahi hopena maikaʻi ʻole i ke kālepa lawe aku alumini o Kina. "