I-United States imemezele ukuthi izobeka intela engu-25%! Izoba namuphi umthelela ekuthunyelweni kwensimbi ne-aluminium eShayina?

NgoFebhuwari 10 ngesikhathi sendawo, owayenguMongameli wase-US uDonald Trump wasayina umyalelo wokuphatha omemezela ukufakwa kwentela engu-25% kuzo zonke izinsimbi ne-aluminium ezingeniswa e-United States. UTrump uthe ngalolo suku ukuthi ngeke kube khona "okuhlukile noma ukukhululwa" ezidingweni ezifanele.Izixhumi Zebhulokhi Yesiphetho, Isixhumi se-Frc futhi Izibonisi Ezingunxande kungase kusebenze.

Ngesikhathi sakhe sokuqala, uTrump wabeka intela engu-25% ensimbini engeniswe e-United States kanye nentela engu-10% e-aluminiumni engeniswe e-United States. Kamuva, abalingani bezohwebo njengeCanada, iMexico, i-European Union kanye ne-United Kingdom banikezwa izabelo ezingenayo intela.

Abangaphakathi embonini bathi kulokhu i-United States ivame ukuphakamisa intela yemikhiqizo evela emazweni ahlukahlukene, futhi ayihloselwe ngqo izwe elilodwa. Kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi isebenzisa intela yentela ukukhulisa izimboni zayo zasekhaya. Ngakho-ke, lokhu kuzoba nomthelela ongakanani ekuthunyelweni kwensimbi ne-aluminium yiShayina e-United States?

Ukuthunyelwa ngqo kwemikhiqizo ye-aluminium kuyingxenye encane kakhulu, futhi ukukhushulwa kwentela kungase kwandise umthwalo kubathengi baseMelika.

Ngokuphathelene nokwenyuka kwentela yemikhiqizo ye-aluminium yi-United States, uWen Xianjun, owayeyiphini likamongameli we-China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association kanye nomongameli ohloniphekile we-Shandong Aluminium Industry Association, uthe: "Ukuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo ye-aluminium e-China njengamanje e-United States kakade kunesilinganiso sentela esiphezulu kakhulu ngenxa 'yemisebenzi yokulwa nokulahla imfucuza kanye neyokuphikisana', kanti ukuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo ye-aluminium e-United States kuncane kakhulu. Izinto ezithintekile kakhulu yimikhiqizo ye-aluminium. I-United States ikhokhisa intela kubangenisi, futhi le mithwalo yentela kufanele ithwalwe kakhulu ngabathengi baseMelika."

Ngokombono wesakhiwo sokuthumela kwamanye amazwe saseShayina, umthamo wokuthumela kwamanye amazwe wemikhiqizo ye-aluminium eShayina minyaka yonke ungamathani ayizigidi ezi-5 kuya kwezi-6, okwenza u-12.85% womkhiqizo. Ngo-2023, iMexico yayiyindawo enkulu yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe yemikhiqizo ye-aluminium yaseShayina, okwenza u-9.6% womthamo wokuthumela kwamanye amazwe wemikhiqizo ye-aluminium. I-United States neCanada zakha u-4.6% no-3.8% ngokulandelana, kanti imikhiqizo ye-aluminium ethunyelwe e-North American Free Trade Area yakha u-18% womthamo wokuthumela kwamanye amazwe wemikhiqizo ye-aluminium yaseShayina.

UWen Xianjun ukholelwa ukuthi intuthuko yemboni ye-aluminium yaseShayina kufanele iqhubeke nokugxila ekukhuliseni izimakethe ezintsha zabathengi ukuze kuqhutshwe ukuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo ye-aluminium yaseShayina. Ukusetshenziswa kwe-aluminium eShayina ikakhulukazi kwenziwa ngaphakathi ezweni, futhi inqubomgomo yentela yase-United States ayinawo umthelela omkhulu emakethe ye-aluminium yasekhaya.

Ngokuphathelene nesakhiwo sokungenisa impahla e-United States, ngokusho kwedatha ye-UNComtrade, ngo-2023, i-United States yangenisa isamba samathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.6482 emikhiqizo ye-aluminium, phakathi kwayo yangenisa amathani angu-420,000, amathani angu-200,000 kanye namathani angu-60,000 avela eCanada, eShayina naseMexico ngokulandelana, okwenza isamba esingu-41.7%. Imithombo yokungenisa imikhiqizo ye-aluminium e-United States igxile kakhulu. Ukungeniswa okuvela emazweni amahlanu aphezulu angenisa impahla, okuyiShayina, iMexico, iCanada, iNdiya neColombia, kwenza i-75%, kanti ukungeniswa okuvela eShayina kwenza i-36%.

NgoMashi 2018, i-United States yabeka intela eyengeziwe engu-10% emikhiqizweni ye-aluminium engeniswe emhlabeni wonke ngokusekelwe emiphumeleni yophenyo, eyaqala ukusebenza ngoMashi 23. I-Canada neMexico kuphela abakhululwa. Ekupheleni kukaSepthemba 2024, i-United States yandisa intela eyengeziwe kweminye yemikhiqizo ye-aluminium yaseShayina yaya ku-25% futhi yabeka intela engu-25% kwi-bauxite ethunyelwe evela eShayina. Izimpahla ezintela zazo zaphakanyiswa kusukela ku-7.5% kuya ku-25% zihambelana cishe nayo yonke imikhiqizo ye-aluminium ngaphansi kwezinto 604-7609.

Ngaleso sikhathi, ngenxa yentela eyayibekwe yi-United States emikhiqizweni ye-aluminium yaseShayina, ukuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo ye-aluminium eShayina e-United States kwehliswa ngesigamu. Kodwa-ke, inani eliphelele lokungeniswa kwemikhiqizo ye-aluminium e-United States lahlala cishe lingamathani ayizigidi ezimbili, ikakhulukazi ngoba ukungeniswa kwemikhiqizo ye-aluminium evela kwamanye amazwe kwakha ingxenye yokuthunyelwa kwempahla e-China eya e-United States okuncishisiwe. Futhi izimpahla zaseShayina zingangena e-United States ngokuhweba ngokuthunyelwa kabusha eMexico naseCanada.

ULi Kui, umcwaningi wezinsimbi ezingenayo insimbi kwa-HuaRong Rongda Futures, uthe: "Ngesikhathi esifushane, ukwanda kukaTrump okuphelele kwentela yokungenisa i-aluminium evela kuwo wonke amazwe kuzothinta ngokungaqondile ukuthunyelwa kwe-China kanye nokuhweba kabusha kwamanye amazwe emazweni afana neMexico neCanada. Kodwa-ke, uma sibheka ukuthi ngokomlando, imikhiqizo ye-aluminium yaseChina ibhekane nophenyo olumelene nokulahla inkunkuma oluqalwe amazwe amaningi, futhi amazinga entela ahambisanayo okulahla inkunkuma aqala cishe ku-10% kuya ku-75%. Ethintwe yimisebenzi yokulwa nokulahla inkunkuma, ukuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo ye-aluminium sekuvele kwehle cishe ngo-30% kuya ku-60%. Ngakho-ke, ngaphansi kwentela engu-25%, ukuguquguquka kwamanani e-aluminium akukhuliswanga kakhulu. Kodwa esikhathini esiphakathi neside, kuzoba nomthelela omubi ekuhwebeni kwe-aluminium yaseChina."