Dziko la United States lalengeza kuti lakhazikitsa msonkho wa 25%! Kodi izi zidzakhudza bwanji katundu wachitsulo ndi aluminiyamu wochokera ku China?

Pa February 10, Purezidenti wakale wa US, Donald Trump, adasaina lamulo lolengeza kuti padzakhala msonkho wa 25% pa zitsulo zonse ndi aluminiyamu zomwe zimalowetsedwa ku United States. Trump adati tsiku lomwelo kuti "palibe chosiyana kapena chopanda kuchotsera" pazofunikira zomwe zikuyenera.Zolumikizira za Terminal Block, Cholumikizira cha Frc ndi Zowunikira zamakona anayi zitha kukhudza.

Pa nthawi yake yoyamba, Trump adakhazikitsa msonkho wa 25% pa zitsulo zomwe zimalowetsedwa ku United States ndi 10% pa aluminiyamu yomwe imalowetsedwa ku United States. Pambuyo pake, ogwirizana nawo pamalonda monga Canada, Mexico, European Union ndi United Kingdom adapatsidwa msonkho wopanda msonkho.

Akatswiri a zamakampani anati nthawi ino dziko la United States nthawi zambiri limakweza misonkho pazinthu zochokera kumayiko osiyanasiyana, ndipo silikuyang'ana dziko limodzi mwachindunji. Mwina likugwiritsa ntchito misonkho kuti lilimbikitse mafakitale ake am'nyumba. Ndiye, kodi izi zidzakhudza bwanji kutumiza zitsulo ndi aluminiyamu ku China ku United States?

Kutumiza zinthu zopangidwa ndi aluminiyamu mwachindunji kumakhudza gawo laling'ono, ndipo kukweza mitengo ya zinthu kungawonjezere mtolo kwa ogula aku America.

Ponena za kukwera kwa msonkho pa zinthu zopangidwa ndi aluminiyamu ndi United States, Wen Xianjun, yemwe kale anali wachiwiri kwa purezidenti wa China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association komanso purezidenti wolemekezeka wa Shandong Aluminium Industry Association, anati: "Kutumiza zinthu zopangidwa ndi aluminiyamu ku China ku United States kuli kale ndi msonkho waukulu kwambiri chifukwa cha 'malipiro oletsa kutaya zinthu ndi countervailing taxs', ndipo kutumiza zinthu zopangidwa ndi aluminiyamu ku United States ndi kochepa kwambiri. Zinthu zomwe zakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi zinthu zopangidwa ndi aluminiyamu. United States imakhometsa misonkho kwa ogulitsa ochokera kunja, ndipo misonkho imeneyi iyenera kunyamulidwa makamaka ndi ogula aku America."

Malinga ndi kapangidwe ka zinthu zotumizidwa kunja ku China, kuchuluka kwa zinthu zotumizidwa kunja kwa China pachaka ndi pafupifupi matani 5 mpaka 6 miliyoni, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti 12.85% ya zomwe zimapangidwa. Mu 2023, Mexico inali malo akuluakulu otumizira zinthu zotumizidwa kunja ku China, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti 9.6% ya zinthu zonse zotumizidwa kunja ku China. United States ndi Canada zinali 4.6% ndi 3.8% motsatana, ndipo zinthu zotumizidwa ku North America Free Trade Area zinali 18% ya kuchuluka kwa zinthu zotumizidwa kunja ku China.

Wen Xianjun akukhulupirira kuti chitukuko cha makampani opanga aluminiyamu ku China chiyenera kupitiliza kuyang'ana kwambiri pakukula misika yatsopano ya ogula kuti apititse patsogolo kutumiza zinthu zopangidwa ndi aluminiyamu ku China. Kugwiritsa ntchito aluminiyamu ku China kumachitika makamaka m'dziko muno, ndipo mfundo za msonkho za ku United States sizikhudza kwambiri msika wa aluminiyamu m'dziko muno.

Ponena za kapangidwe ka zinthu zotumizira kunja ku United States, malinga ndi deta ya UNComtrade, mu 2023, United States idatumiza zinthu zokwana matani 1.6482 miliyoni za aluminiyamu, zomwe zidatumiza matani 420,000, matani 200,000 ndi matani 60,000 kuchokera ku Canada, China ndi Mexico motsatana, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti zikhale 41.7%. Magwero a zinthu zotumizira kunja za aluminiyamu ku United States ndi ochulukirapo. Zinthu zotumizira kunja kuchokera kumayiko asanu apamwamba omwe amatumiza kunja, omwe ndi China, Mexico, Canada, India ndi Colombia, ndi 75%, ndipo zinthu zotumizira kuchokera ku China ndi 36%.

Mu Marichi 2018, dziko la United States linakhazikitsa msonkho wowonjezera wa 10% pazinthu zopangidwa ndi aluminiyamu zomwe zimatumizidwa kuchokera padziko lonse lapansi kutengera zotsatira za kafukufukuyu, zomwe zinayamba kugwira ntchito pa Marichi 23. Canada ndi Mexico zokha ndi zomwe sizinaloledwe. Kumapeto kwa Seputembala 2024, dziko la United States linawonjezera msonkho wowonjezera pazinthu zina zopangidwa ndi aluminiyamu ku China kufika pa 25% komanso linakhazikitsa msonkho wa 25% pa bauxite yomwe imatumizidwa kuchokera ku China. Katundu amene mitengo yake inakwezedwa kuchokera pa 7.5% mpaka 25% ndi ofanana ndi zinthu zonse zopangidwa ndi aluminiyamu zomwe zili pansi pa zinthu 604-7609.

Panthawiyo, chifukwa cha misonkho yomwe United States inkayika pazinthu zopangidwa ndi aluminiyamu ku China, kutumiza zinthu zopangidwa ndi aluminiyamu ku China ku United States kunachepetsedwa ndi theka. Komabe, kuchuluka kwa zinthu zopangidwa ndi aluminiyamu ku United States kunakhalabe pafupifupi matani 2 miliyoni, makamaka chifukwa choti zinthu zopangidwa ndi aluminiyamu zochokera kumayiko ena zinapangitsa kuti katundu wotumizidwa kuchokera ku China achepe kupita ku United States. Ndipo katundu wa ku China akhoza kulowa mu United States kudzera mu malonda otumizanso ku Mexico ndi Canada.

Li Kui, wofufuza za zitsulo zopanda chitsulo ku HuaRong Rongda Futures, anati: "M'kanthawi kochepa, kukwera kwa Trump kwa mitengo ya aluminiyamu yochokera kumayiko onse kudzakhudzanso mwachindunji kutumiza kunja kwa China ndi kugulitsanso kumayiko monga Mexico ndi Canada. Komabe, poganizira kuti m'mbuyomu, zinthu za aluminiyamu zaku China zakhala zikufufuzidwa ndi mayiko ambiri pankhani yotsutsana ndi kutaya zinyalala, ndipo mitengo ya msonkho yotsutsana ndi kutaya zinyalala imayambira pa 10% mpaka 75%. Chifukwa cha kukhudzidwa ndi misonkho yotsutsana ndi kutaya zinyalala, kutumiza zinthu za aluminiyamu kunja kwatsika kale ndi pafupifupi 30% mpaka 60%. Chifukwa chake, pansi pa msonkho wa 25%, kusinthasintha kwa mitengo ya aluminiyamu sikunakulitsidwe kwambiri. Koma panthawi yapakati komanso yayitali, idzakhala ndi zotsatirapo zoyipa pa malonda a aluminiyamu aku China."