I-United States ibhengeze ukuba iza kuhlawulisa i-25% yerhafu! Iza kuba naliphi ifuthe ekuthunyelweni kwe-iron kunye ne-aluminium eTshayina?

Ngomhla we-10 kweyoMdumba ngexesha lendawo, owayesakuba nguMongameli wase-US uDonald Trump watyikitya umyalelo olawulayo obhengeza ukumiselwa kwerhafu ye-25% kuzo zonke intsimbi kunye ne-aluminium ezingeniswa eMelika. UTrump wathi ngaloo mini inye ukuba akuyi kubakho "zikhetho okanye zixolelweyo" kwiimfuno ezifanelekileyo.Iziqhagamsheli zeTerminal Block, Isixhumi seFrc kwaye Izibonisi ezibuxande inokuba nefuthe.

Ngexesha lakhe lokuqala, uTrump wabeka irhafu ye-25% kwisinyithi esingeniswa eMelika kunye nerhafu ye-10% kwi-aluminium engeniswa eMelika. Kamva, amaqabane orhwebo afana neKhanada, iMexico, iManyano yaseYurophu kunye ne-United Kingdom anikwa izabelo ezingenarhafu.

Abantu abanolwazi ngezoshishino bathi ngeli xesha i-United States inyuse irhafu kwiimveliso ezivela kumazwe ahlukeneyo, kwaye ayijoliswanga ngqo kwilizwe elinye. Kusenokwenzeka ukuba isebenzisa irhafu ukukhulisa amashishini ayo asekhaya. Ngoko ke, oku kuya kuba nefuthe elingakanani ekuthunyelweni kwe-China ngentsimbi ne-aluminium e-United States?

Ukuthunyelwa ngqo kweemveliso ze-aluminium kuyinxalenye encinci kakhulu, kwaye ukunyusa irhafu kunokunyusa umthwalo kubathengi baseMelika.

Ngokuphathelele ukonyuswa kwerhafu kwiimveliso ze-aluminium yi-United States, uWen Xianjun, owayesakuba ngusekela-mongameli we-China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association kunye nomongameli ohloniphekileyo we-Shandong Aluminium Industry Association, uthe: "Ukuthunyelwa kwemveliso ze-aluminium e-China ngoku e-United States sele kunezinga eliphezulu kakhulu lerhafu ngenxa 'yemisebenzi yokulwa nokulahla inkunkuma kunye ne-countervailing', kwaye ukuthunyelwa kweemveliso ze-aluminium e-United States kuncinci kakhulu. Izinto eziphambili ezichaphazelekayo ziimveliso ze-aluminium. I-United States ihlawulisa irhafu kubangenisi, kwaye le mithwalo yerhafu kufuneka ithwalwe ikakhulu ngabathengi baseMelika."

Ngokwembono yesakhiwo sokuthumela ngaphandle saseTshayina, umthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle wemveliso ye-aluminium eTshayina minyaka le umalunga ne-5 ukuya kwi-6 yezigidi zeetoni, nto leyo ethetha i-12.85% yemveliso. Ngo-2023, iMexico yayiyeyona ndawo inkulu yokuthumela ngaphandle iimveliso ze-aluminium zaseTshayina, ithetha i-9.6% yenani lilonke lemveliso ye-aluminium ethunyelwa ngaphandle. I-United States neKhanada zazine-4.6% kunye ne-3.8% ngokulandelelana, kwaye iimveliso ze-aluminium ezithunyelwe kwi-North American Free Trade Area zazine-18% yenani lilonke lemveliso ye-aluminium yaseTshayina ethunyelwa ngaphandle.

UWen Xianjun ukholelwa ukuba uphuhliso lweshishini le-aluminium laseTshayina kufuneka luqhubeke nokugxila ekukhuliseni iimarike ezintsha zabathengi ukuze kuqhutywe phambili ukuthunyelwa kweemveliso ze-aluminium zaseTshayina. Ukusetyenziswa kwe-aluminium eTshayina ikakhulu kusekhaya, kwaye umgaqo-nkqubo werhafu wase-United States awunampembelelo ingako kwimarike ye-aluminium yasekhaya.

Ngokwesakhiwo sokungenisa impahla eMelika, ngokwedatha ye-UNComtrade, ngo-2023, iMelika ingenise iitoni eziyi-1.6482 yezigidi zeemveliso ze-aluminium, apho ingenise iitoni ezingama-420,000, iitoni ezingama-200,000 kunye neetoni ezingama-60,000 ezivela eCanada, eTshayina naseMexico ngokwahlukeneyo, ezifikelela kwi-41.7%. Imithombo yokungeniswa kweemveliso ze-aluminium eMelika ixinene kakhulu. Ukungeniswa okuvela kumazwe amahlanu aphambili angenisa impahla, iTshayina, iMexico, iKhanada, iIndiya neColombia, kuxhomekeke kwi-75%, kwaye ukungeniswa okuvela eTshayina kuxhomekeke kwi-36%.

NgoMatshi 2018, i-United States yabeka irhafu eyongezelelweyo ye-10% kwiimveliso ze-aluminium ezingeniswe zivela kwihlabathi liphela ngokusekelwe kwiziphumo zophando, ezaqala ukusebenza nge-23 kaMatshi. Kuphela yiKhanada neMexico ezazikhululwe. Ekupheleni kukaSeptemba 2024, i-United States yonyusa irhafu eyongezelelweyo kwezinye zeemveliso ze-aluminium zaseTshayina ukuya kwi-25% yaza yabeka irhafu ye-25% kwi-bauxite ethunyelwa ngaphandle evela eTshayina. Iimpahla ezirhafu zazo zinyuswe ukusuka kwi-7.5% ukuya kwi-25% zihambelana phantse nazo zonke iimveliso ze-aluminium phantsi kwezinto 604-7609.

Ngelo xesha, ngenxa yerhafu eyayibekwe yi-United States kwiimveliso ze-aluminium zaseTshayina, ukuthunyelwa kwemveliso ze-aluminium eTshayina eMelika kwehliswa ngesiqingatha. Nangona kunjalo, umthamo uwonke weemveliso ze-aluminium ezingeniswayo eMelika wahlala umalunga neetoni ezi-2 zezigidi, ikakhulu ngenxa yokuba ukungeniswa kweemveliso ze-aluminium kwamanye amazwe kwabangela inxalenye yokuthunyelwa kwempahla evela eTshayina ukuya eMelika okuncitshisiweyo. Kwaye iimpahla zaseTshayina zinokungena eMelika ngorhwebo lokuthumela kwakhona eMexico naseKhanada.

ULi Kui, umphandi weentsimbi ezingenayo i-ferro kwiHuaRong Rongda Futures, uthe: "Kwixesha elifutshane, ukonyuka okubanzi kukaTrump kwirhafu yokungenisa i-aluminium evela kuwo onke amazwe kuya kuchaphazela ngokungathanga ngqo ukuthunyelwa kwe-China kunye norhwebo lokuthumela kwakhona kumazwe afana neMexico neKhanada. Nangona kunjalo, xa sicinga ukuba ngokwembali, iimveliso ze-aluminium zaseTshayina ziye zajongana nophando lokulwa nokulahla inkunkuma oluqalwe ngamazwe amaninzi, kwaye amazinga erhafu ahambelanayo okulwa nokulahla inkunkuma aqala malunga ne-10% ukuya kwi-75%. Ichatshazelwe yimisebenzi yokulwa nokulahla inkunkuma, ukuthunyelwa kweemveliso ze-aluminium sele kwehle malunga ne-30% ukuya kwi-60%. Ke ngoko, phantsi kwerhafu ye-25%, ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso e-aluminium akukakhuliswa kakhulu. Kodwa kwixesha eliphakathi nelide, kuya kuba nefuthe elibi kurhwebo lokuthumela i-aluminium eTshayina."