Mareykanka ayaa ku dhawaaqay inuu soo rogay canshuur dhan 25%! Saameyn intee le'eg ayay ku yeelan doontaa dhoofinta birta iyo aluminiumka ee Shiinaha?

10-kii Febraayo waqtiga maxalliga ah, Madaxweynihii hore ee Mareykanka Donald Trump ayaa saxiixay amar fulineed oo ku dhawaaqaya in canshuur dhan 25% lagu soo rogo dhammaan birta iyo aluminiumka la soo geliyo Mareykanka. Trump ayaa isla maalintaas sheegay inaysan jiri doonin "wax ka reebitaan ama ka-dhaafitaan ah" shuruudaha khuseeya.Xidhiidhiyayaasha Baloogga Terminalka, Isku xirka Frc iyo Dib-u-soo-celiyeyaal leydi ah saameyn kartaa.

Intii uu xilka hayay, Trump wuxuu canshuur dhan 25% ku soo rogay birta la soo geliyo Mareykanka iyo 10% oo ah qiimaha aluminiumka la soo geliyo Mareykanka. Markii dambe, la-hawlgalayaasha ganacsiga sida Kanada, Mexico, Midowga Yurub iyo Boqortooyada Ingiriiska ayaa la siiyay kooto canshuur la'aan ah.

Dadka gudaha warshadaha ku xeel dheer ayaa sheegay in markan Mareykanku guud ahaan kor u qaaday canshuuraha alaabada ka imanaya dalal kala duwan, mana aha mid si toos ah loogu beegsanayo hal waddan. Waxay u badan tahay inay adeegsanayso canshuuraha si ay u kobciso warshadaheeda gudaha. Haddaba, saameyn intee le'eg ayay arrintani ku yeelan doontaa dhoofinta birta iyo aluminiumka ee Shiinaha uu u dhoofiyo Mareykanka?

Dhoofinta tooska ah ee alaabada aluminiumku waxay ku jirtaa qayb yar, kor u qaadista canshuuraha waxay kordhin kartaa culayska saaran macaamiisha Mareykanka.

Marka laga hadlayo kororka canshuurta ee alaabta aluminiumka ee Mareykanka, Wen Xianjun, madaxweyne ku xigeenkii hore ee Ururka Warshadaha Birta aan la karin ee Shiinaha iyo madaxweyne sharafeedka Ururka Warshadaha Aluminiumka ee Shandong, ayaa yiri: "Dhoofinta alaabada aluminiumka ee Shiinaha ee hadda loo dhoofiyo Mareykanka waxay horey u leedahay heer canshuur oo aad u sarreeya sababtoo ah 'ka hortagga qashinka iyo canshuuraha ka-hortagga', dhoofinta alaabada aluminiumka ee Mareykankana aad bay u yar tahay. Waxyaabaha ugu badan ee ay saameysay waa alaabada aluminiumka. Mareykanka wuxuu canshuur ka qaadaa soo dejiyayaasha, culaysyadan canshuurta ahna waa inay inta badan qaadaan macaamiisha Mareykanka."

Marka laga eego qaab-dhismeedka dhoofinta Shiinaha, mugga dhoofinta sanadlaha ah ee alaabada aluminiumka ee Shiinaha waa qiyaastii 5 ilaa 6 milyan oo tan, taasoo ka dhigan 12.85% wax soo saarka. Sannadkii 2023, Mexico waxay ahayd meesha ugu badan ee loo dhoofiyo alaabada aluminiumka ee Shiinaha, taasoo ka dhigan 9.6% wadarta guud ee mugga dhoofinta alaabada aluminiumka. Mareykanka iyo Kanada waxay ka ahaayeen 4.6% iyo 3.8% siday u kala horreeyaan, alaabada aluminiumka ee loo dhoofiyo Aagga Ganacsiga Xorta ah ee Waqooyiga Ameerika waxay ka ahaayeen 18% wadarta guud ee mugga dhoofinta alaabada aluminiumka ee Shiinaha.

Wen Xianjun wuxuu aaminsan yahay in horumarinta warshadaha aluminiumka Shiinaha ay tahay inay sii wadaan diiradda saarista kobcinta suuqyada cusub ee macaamiisha si loo kiciyo dhoofinta alaabada aluminiumka Shiinaha. Isticmaalka aluminiumka ee Shiinaha ayaa inta badan ah mid gudaha ah, siyaasadda canshuuraha ee Mareykanka saameyn yar kuma lahan suuqa aluminiumka gudaha.

Marka laga hadlayo qaab-dhismeedka soo dejinta ee Mareykanka, sida laga soo xigtay xogta UNComtrade, sannadkii 2023, Mareykanka wuxuu soo dhoofiyay wadar ahaan 1.6482 milyan oo tan oo ah alaabada aluminiumka, kuwaas oo ay ka mid yihiin 420,000 tan, 200,000 tan iyo 60,000 tan oo ka yimid Kanada, Shiinaha iyo Mexico siday u kala horreeyaan, taasoo wadarta guud ka dhigaysa 41.7%. Ilaha alaabada aluminiumka ee laga soo dejiyo Mareykanka waa kuwo aad u badan. Soo dejinta shanta waddan ee ugu sarreeya soo dejinta, kuwaas oo kala ah Shiinaha, Mexico, Kanada, Hindiya iyo Colombia, waxay ka dhigan yihiin 75%, soo dejinta Shiinahana waxay ka dhigan tahay 36%.

Bishii Maarso 2018, Mareykanka wuxuu canshuur dheeraad ah oo dhan 10% ku soo rogay alaabada aluminiumka laga soo dejiyo adduunka oo dhan iyadoo lagu saleynayo natiijooyinka baaritaanka, kaasoo dhaqan galay Maarso 23. Kaliya Kanada iyo Mexico ayaa laga dhaafay. Dhammaadkii Sebtembar 2024, Mareykanka wuxuu kordhiyay canshuurta dheeraadka ah ee qaar ka mid ah alaabada aluminiumka ee Shiinaha ilaa 25% wuxuuna sidoo kale canshuur dhan 25% ku soo rogay bauxite-ka laga dhoofiyo Shiinaha. Badeecadaha canshuurta laga qaaday laga soo bilaabo 7.5% ilaa 25% waxay u dhigmaan ku dhawaad ​​​​dhammaan alaabada aluminiumka ee hoos yimaada qodobbada 604-7609.

Waqtigaas, canshuuraha uu Mareykanku ku soo rogay alaabada aluminiumka ee Shiinaha awgeed, dhoofinta alaabada aluminiumka ee Shiinaha ee Mareykanka ayaa kala bar hoos loo dhigay. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, mugga guud ee alaabada aluminiumka ee laga soo dejiyo Mareykanka wuxuu ahaa qiyaastii 2 milyan oo tan, taasoo ugu badan sababtoo ah soo dejinta alaabada aluminiumka ee ka timid waddamada kale waxay ka koobnayd qayb ka mid ah dhoofinta Shiinaha ee Mareykanka oo hoos u dhacday. Badeecadaha Shiinahana waxay geli karaan Mareykanka iyagoo dib u dhoofinaya ganacsiga Mexico iyo Kanada.

Li Kui, oo ah cilmi-baare biraha aan birta ahayn oo ka tirsan HuaRong Rongda Futures, ayaa yiri: "Muddada gaaban, kororka dhammaystiran ee Trump ee canshuuraha soo dejinta ee aluminiumka ee ka imanaya dhammaan waddamada ayaa sidoo kale si dadban u saameyn doona dhoofinta iyo ganacsiga dib-u-dhoofinta Shiinaha ee dalalka sida Mexico iyo Kanada. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, marka la eego taariikh ahaan, alaabada aluminiumka ee Shiinaha waxay la kulmeen baaritaanno ka dhan ah qashin-qubka oo ay bilaabeen waddamo badan, heerarka canshuurta ka hortagga qashin-qubka ee u dhigmana waxay u dhexeeyaan qiyaastii 10% ilaa 75%. Iyada oo ay saameeyeen waajibaadka ka hortagga qashin-qubka, dhoofinta alaabada aluminiumka ayaa durba hoos u dhacday qiyaastii 30% ilaa 60%. Sidaa darteed, iyadoo la raacayo canshuur 25% ah, isbeddelka qiimaha aluminiumka si weyn looma kordhin. Laakiin muddada dhexe iyo tan dheer, waxay yeelan doontaa saameyn xun oo gaar ah oo ku saabsan ganacsiga dhoofinta aluminiumka ee Shiinaha."