Mangwanani emusi wa8 Zvita, renminbi dzemumahombekombe nedzemumahombekombe dzakakwira pamwe chete, dzese dzichisvika pakakwirira kwadzo muna Chivabvu, kukwira kutsva kubva muna Chivabvu 2018. Sei chiyero cheyuan chakasimba kudaro? Ungaona sei mafambiro eramangwana? Yuan yakawedzera zvichienderana nedhora kwemwedzi mitatu yakatevedzana kubva munaGunyana. Kubva gore rino, chiyero chekutsinhana cheRMB chakaramba chichikwira kubva muna Chikumi 2020. Nhamba dzinoratidza kuti kusvika pamapoinzi gumi musi wa8 Zvita, chiyero chekutsinhana cheRMB chemumahombekombe chichienzaniswa nedhora reUS chakakwira ne2.85% gore rino, nepo chiyero chedhora reUS chakakwira ne6.88% munguva imwe cheteyo. Pasi pemamiriro ekuwedzera kwemari, chiyero chekutsinhana cheRMB chakakunda mafambiro acho kubva pakuzvimirira. Kubva muna Zvita 3, chiyero chekutsinhana cheCFETS RMB, chinoratidza kuchinja kweavhareji yekuchinja kwemari yeyuan zvichienzaniswa nedengu remari, chakataurwa pa102.66, pakakwirira chose kubva muna Zvita 2015, uye chakakwira ne8.25% kubva pakupera kwa 2020. Puragi yekudipudza, Chip Carrier Socket uye zvinoratidzira zvemugwagwa wegirini zvinofanira kucherechedzwa.
Zhang Yu, mukuru wezvekuongororwa kwemari yeHuachuang Securities, akati kubva munaGunyana 2021, mwero wekutsinhana kwemari yeRMB wave kutsauka zvakanyanya kubva pamutengo wedhora, kudzoserwa kwemutengo wedhora hakudziki asi kunokwira, uye dengu remutengo wekutsinhana kwemari yeRMB riri padanho rakasimba.
Bhanga rePeople's Bank reChina rakazivisa musi wa6 Zvita kuti richaderedza zvizere chiyero chezvinodiwa zvekuchengetedza ne0.5 muzana musi wa15 Zvita, uye rinotarisirwa kuburitsa mari inosvika zviuru gumi nezviviri zvemayuan yenguva refu. Kazhinji zvinotendwa kuti kuburitswa kwemari yakawanda kuchaisa kumanikidzwa pamutengo wekutsinhana kwemari yemuno kuburikidza nehurongwa hwemubereko. Zvisinei, kuziviswa kwekuderedzwa kweRRR hakuna kukanganisa kushanda kwakasimba kwemutengo wekutsinhana kweRMB. Kubva musi wa7 Zvita, mutengo wekutsinhana weRMB wave uchiratidzwa nekukwira nekukurumidza.
Sei yakasimba kudaro? Sei mwero wekutsinhana kwemari weRMB uchigona kubuda mumusika wakazvimirira? Kubvumirana kwemusika kwakaita kuti mwero wekutsinhana kwemari weRMB urambe wakadzikama nekusimudzira mashandiro ehupfumi akasimba, kukura nekukurumidza kwemari yekunze, uye mutemo wemari wakasimba. Nezvekudzikiswa kweRRR, munhu akakodzera anotarisira People's Bank of China akasimbisa kuti nzira yemutemo wemari wakangwara haina kuchinja, uye kudzikiswa kweRRR ibasa renguva dzose remutemo wemari. People's Bank of China inotevedzera mutemo wemari wakajairika, inochengetedza kuenderera mberi, kugadzikana uye kugara kwenguva refu kwemitemo, haizadze mvura yakawanda, uye ichagadzira nzvimbo yakakodzera yemari nemari yekuvandudza kwemhando yepamusoro uye kugadzirisa zvivakwa zvepadivi pekupa. Mwero wekutsinhana kwemari weRMB wenguva pfupi unoramba wakasimba, uchinyatsoteerera shanduko dzemaonero ebhangi guru. Mutengesi wemari yekune dzimwe nyika webhangi remubatanidzwa pakati peChina akati mari yekutsinhana kwemari yekune dzimwe nyika pakupera kwegore iri kushanda, mari yekutsinhana kwemari yekune dzimwe nyika yemabhanga makuru yakaderera zvakanyanya, zvinotarisirwa kuti mashandiro emari yekutsinhana kwemari yeRMB yenguva pfupi achiri akasimba, anofanira kunyatsoteerera maitiro ebhangi guru uye basa rekudzivirira hunyanzvi hwepasi pamari. mwero. Zvisinei, akataurawo kuti bhangi guru richine maturusi akakwana ekuchengetedza mwero wekutsinhana kweyuan uri munzvimbo inonzwisisika, asi ikozvino vachiona, bhangi guru rinoda kurega masimba emusika achishanda pamutengo wekutsinhana kweRMB, kana kusimudzira nemaune kuchinjika kwayo. Pakati paMbudzi, musangano wehurongwa hwekuzvidzora wemusika wekutsinhana kwemari wepasi rose wakataura kuti mamiriro ehupfumi hwenyika nehupfumi hwazvino akaoma uye anogona kuchinja, hupfumi hukuru mutemo wemari webhangi guru wakatanga kugadzirisa, kukanganisa mwero wekutsinhana, mwero wekutsinhana weRMB wemangwana unogona kunge uchikosha, unogona kudzikira, kuchinja-chinja kwenzira mbiri kwakajairika, chiyero chinonzwisisika ndicho chinangwa, kutsauka kunoenderana nesimba rekugadzirisa.
Kuwanda kwevanhu mumari yekutsinhana mari yekune dzimwe nyika kunogona kuoneka pakupera kwegore. Muongorori weGalaxy futures macro akati mafambiro akasimba eRMB exchange rate munguva pfupi yapfuura ari kukonzerwa nekuwanda kwevanhu mumari yekutsinhana mari yekune dzimwe nyika gore risati rapera. Pakutanga, RMB exchange rate yaive yakasimba, uye makambani anowana mari yekune dzimwe nyika haadi kutengesa mari yekune dzimwe nyika kumabhanga nemitengo yakaderera, asi anotarisira kutengesa mari yekune dzimwe nyika kumabhanga nemitengo yakakwira yekutsinhana, kureva kuti, haadi kutengesa kana kutengesa nemari yekune dzimwe nyika. Zvisinei, kana RMB exchange rate ikaramba yakasimba gore risati rapera, zviri nyore kukonzera kuwanda kwevanhu mumari yekutsinhana mari yekune dzimwe nyika, uye kuwanda kwevanhu mumari yekutsinhana mari yekune dzimwe nyika kuchawedzera kuwedzera kweRMB exchange rate, uye njodzi yekuwanda kwevanhu mumari yekutsinhana mari yekune dzimwe nyika yakadai sekutengesa kunze kwenyika. Vatori vechikamu mumusika vakataura kuti kare, pakupera kwegore, nekuda kwekuwanda kwevanhu mumari yekutsinhana mari yekune dzimwe nyika, RMB exchange rate yakaita zvakanaka munguva zhinji. Mikana yekuti kuwanda kwevanhu mumari yekutsinhana mari yekune dzimwe nyika kunogona kuwedzera gore rino. Kuchinja-chinja kwenzira mbiri ndiyo nzira huru Vatori vechikamu mumusika vakataura kuti munguva pfupi yapfuura Data rekutengesa kunze kwenyika rakaburitswa rakaramba richikura zvakanyanya, kunyangwe huwandu hwekutengeserana hwakaderera pane zvaitarisirwa, asi huchiri kuramba huri padanho repamusoro, zvichitsigira kushanda kwakasimba kweRMB. Kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kwenguva pfupi kucharamba kuchitsigira renminbi, iyo inogona kudzikira gore rinouya. Gao Weidong, mukuru wezvehupfumi kuEverbright Securities, akataura kuti sezvo denda richideredza zvishoma nezvishoma zvirambidzo pachain yekugovera, kukura kwekukura kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika kunogona kudzikira, uye kudzikira kwehuwandu hwekutengeserana kuchaderedza kudiwa kwekugadzirisa nekutengesa mari yekunze, uye nokudaro kuderedza rutsigiro rweRMB exchange rate padanho rekugovera nekudiwa. Kunewo vari mukati mekudzidza kuti kuwedzera kweRMB exchange rate kwazvino kunokanganiswa zvakanyanya nezvinhu zvemwaka, hakugone kuita tsananguro yakatsetseka yemafambiro enguva pfupi. Kutaura zvazviri, mumakore achangopfuura, mashandiro chaiwo emusika akaratidza kakawanda kuti kuchinja-chinja kwenzira mbiri ndiyo maitiro akajairika ekushanda kweRMB exchange rate. Vari mukati meindasitiri vanotenda kuti huwandu hweRMB exchange rate hwemangwana hucharamba hwakagadzikana padanho rakanaka uye rakaenzana, uye hucharamba huchichengetedza maitiro ekutanga ekufamba-famba munzira mbiri. Asi huwandu hwemari yeYuan hunogona kunge hwakakura kupfuura gore rino.
Nguva yekutumira: Zvita-13-2021