Ekuseni ngomhlaka-8 Disemba, i-renminbi yasogwini kanye neyasogwini yahlangana, zombili zafinyelela ezingeni eliphezulu ngoMeyi, izinga eliphezulu elisha kusukela ngoMeyi 2018. Kungani izinga le-yuan liqine kangaka? Ungalibuka kanjani ithrendi yesikhathi esizayo? I-yuan iye yanda uma iqhathaniswa nedola izinyanga ezintathu zilandelana kusukela ngoSepthemba. Kusukela kulo nyaka, izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB liqhubeke nokukhula kwalo kusukela ngoJuni 2020. Izibalo zibonisa ukuthi kusukela ngamaphuzu ayi-10 ngoDisemba 8, i-RMB yasogwini uma iqhathaniswa nezinga lokushintshaniswa kwedola lase-US ikhuphuke ngo-2.85% kulo nyaka, kanti inkomba yedola lase-US ikhuphuke ngo-6.88% esikhathini esifanayo. Ngaphansi kwesizinda sezinga lokushintshaniswa kwedola eliqinile, izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB ladlula ithrendi ngaphandle kwethrendi ezimele. Kusukela ngomhlaka-3 Disemba, inkomba yezinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-CFETS RMB, ebonisa ushintsho olujwayelekile lwezinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-yuan uma iqhathaniswa nebhasikidi lezimali, yabikwa ku-102.66, ephezulu kakhulu kusukela ngoDisemba 2015, futhi yanda ngo-8.25% kusukela ekupheleni kukaDisemba 2015. 2020. Ipulaki yokucwilisa, Isokhethi Yesithwali Se-Chip futhi izibonisi zendlela eziluhlaza kufanele kuqashelwe.
UZhang Yu, umhlaziyi omkhulu we-Huachuang Securities, uthe kusukela ngoSepthemba 2021, izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB liye lashintsha kakhulu kwi-dollar index, ukubuya kwe-dollar index akuyehli kodwa kuyakhuphuka, futhi i-RMB rate rate isezingeni eliphezulu.
IBhange Labantu LaseShayina limemezele ngoDisemba 6 ukuthi lizonciphisa ngokuphelele isilinganiso semfuneko yokugcina ngamaphesenti angu-0.5 ngoDisemba 15, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi likhiphe cishe ama-yuan ayi-12,000 ezimali zesikhathi eside. Ngokuvamile kukholakala ukuthi ukukhishwa kwemali enkulu kuzobeka ingcindezi esilinganisweni sokushintshaniswa kwemali yendawo ngendlela yesilinganiso senzalo. Kodwa-ke, isimemezelo sokunciphisa i-RRR asizange sithinte ukusebenza okuqinile kwesilinganiso sokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB. Kusukela ngoDisemba 7, izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB liye labonakala ngokukhula okusheshayo.
Kungani liqine kangaka?Kungani izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB lingaphuma emakethe ezimele?Ukuvumelana kwemakethe kwenze izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB lihlale lizinzile ngokukhuthaza ukusebenza komnotho okuzinzile, ukukhula okusheshayo kokungena kwemali yangaphandle, kanye nenqubomgomo yemali ezinzile.Ngokuphathelene nokunciphisa i-RRR, umuntu ofanele ophethe i-People's Bank of China ugcizelele ukuthi ukuqondiswa kwenqubomgomo yemali ehlakaniphile akukashintshi, futhi ukunciphisa i-RRR kuyindlela ejwayelekile yokusebenza kwenqubomgomo yemali. I-People's Bank of China inamathela kwinqubomgomo yemali evamile, igcina ukuqhubeka, ukuzinza kanye nokusimama kwezinqubomgomo, ayigcwalisi ukunisela, futhi izodala indawo efanele yezezimali neyezezimali yentuthuko esezingeni eliphezulu kanye nokuguqulwa kwesakhiwo ohlangothini lokuhlinzeka. Izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB yesikhathi esifushane lihlala liqinile, linaka kakhulu izinguquko zesimo sengqondo sebhange eliphakathi. Umhwebi wezimali zangaphandle webhange elihlangene enkabeni yeChina uthe ukushintshaniswa kwemali yangaphandle ekupheleni konyaka kuyasebenza, ukushintshaniswa kwemali kwamanye amazwe kwamabhange amakhulu kwehle kakhulu, kulindeleke ukuthi ukusebenza kwezinga lokushintshaniswa kwemali yesikhathi esifushane ye-RMB kusaqinile, kufanele kunake kakhulu isimo sengqondo sebhange eliphakathi kanye nendima yokuvimbela ukudlula kobuchwepheshe okubalulekile ekushintshaneni. izinga. Kodwa-ke, uphinde waveza ukuthi ibhange eliphakathi lisenamathuluzi anele okugcina izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-yuan lisezingeni elifanele lokulingana, kodwa manje ebona, ibhange eliphakathi likhetha ukuvumela amandla emakethe ukuthi asebenze ngesilinganiso sokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB, noma athuthukise ngamabomu ukuguquguquka kwalo. Maphakathi noNovemba, ingqungquthela yendlela yokuzithiba yemakethe yokushintshaniswa kwamanye amazwe kazwelonke ikhombe ukuthi isimo samanje sezomnotho nezezimali somhlaba wonke siyinkimbinkimbi futhi siyashintsha, umnotho oyinhloko inqubomgomo yezimali yebhange eliphakathi yaqala ukulungisa, yathinta izinga lokushintshaniswa, izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB lesikhathi esizayo lingase libe nokwenyuka, lingase lehle inani, ukuguquguquka kwezindlela ezimbili kuvamile, ibhalansi enengqondo umgomo, ukuphambuka kuhambisana namandla okulungisa.
Umphumela wokuminyana kwesiteshi sokuxazulula ukushintshisana kwemali yangaphandle ungase uvele ekupheleni konyaka. Umcwaningi we-Galaxy futures macro uthe umkhuba wakamuva onamandla wesilinganiso sokushintshana kwe-RMB ubangelwa umphumela wokuminyana kweziteshi zokuxazulula ukushintshisana kwemali yangaphandle ngaphambi kokuphela konyaka. Esigabeni sokuqala, izinga lokushintshana kwe-RMB laliqinile, futhi amabhizinisi angenayo imali yokushintshana kwemali yangaphandle ayanqikaza ukuthengisa imali yangaphandle emabhange ngamanani aphansi, kodwa anethemba lokuthengisa imali yangaphandle emabhange ngamanani aphezulu okushintshana kwemali, okungukuthi, ayanqikaza ukuthengisa noma ukuthengisa nge-exchange exchange. Kodwa-ke, lapho izinga lokushintshana kwe-RMB lihlala liqinile ngaphambi kokuphela konyaka, kulula ukubangela umphumela wokuminyana kwesiteshi sokuxazulula ukushintshisana kwemali, futhi umphumela wokuminyana kwesiteshi sokuxazulula ukushintshisana kwemali uzothuthukisa izinga lokushintshana kwe-RMB likhuphuke kakhulu, futhi ingozi yesilinganiso sokushintshana izovela futhi ibangelwe amabhizinisi angenayo imali yokushintshana kwemali yangaphandle njengokuthumela kwamanye amazwe. Abahlanganyeli bemakethe baveze ukuthi ngokomlando, ekupheleni konyaka, ngenxa yokuxazulula ukushintshisana kwamabhizinisi athumela kwamanye amazwe, izinga lokushintshana kwe-RMB lenze kahle esikhathini esiningi. Amathuba omphumela wokuminyana kweziteshi zokuxazulula ukushintshisana kwemali yangaphandle anganda kulo nyaka. Ukuguquguquka okubili kuyindlela enkulu Abahlanganyeli bemakethe baveze ukuthi muva nje Idatha yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe ekhishwe ngaphakathi igcine izinga lokukhula eliphezulu, yize insalela yokuhweba iphansi kunalokho obekulindelwe, kodwa isagcinwe ezingeni eliphezulu, isekela ukusebenza okuqinile kwe-RMB. Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwesikhathi esifushane kuzoqhubeka nokusekela i-renminbi, okungenzeka ukuthi yehle ngonyaka ozayo. UGao Weidong, isazi sezomnotho esikhulu e-Everbright Securities, ukhombe ukuthi njengoba ubhubhane lunciphisa kancane kancane imikhawulo kuchungechunge lokuhlinzeka, umkhuba wokukhula kokukhula kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ekhaya cishe uzoncipha, futhi ukuncipha kwensalela yokuhweba kuzonciphisa isidingo sokuxazulula nokuthengisa imali yangaphandle, ngaleyo ndlela kunciphise ukusekelwa kwesilinganiso sokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB ezingeni lokuhlinzeka nesidingo. Kukhona nabangaphakathi ngaphakathi kwesifundo sokuthi ukwehla kwakamuva kwesilinganiso sokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB kuthinteka kakhulu yizici zesizini, akukwazi ukwenza ukuhlaziywa okuqondile komkhuba wesikhathi esifushane. Eqinisweni, eminyakeni yamuva nje, ukusebenza kwangempela kwemakethe kuye kwafakazela ngokuphindaphindiwe ukuthi ukuguquguquka kwezindlela ezimbili kuyindlela ejwayelekile yokusebenza kwesilinganiso sokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB. Abangaphakathi embonini bakholelwa ukuthi izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB lesikhathi esizayo lizohlala lizinzile ezingeni elifanele nelilinganiselayo, futhi ligcine iphethini eyisisekelo yokuntanta kwezindlela ezimbili. Kodwa Ibanga le-yuan elibheke ezinhlangothini ezimbili cishe lizoba likhulu kunalo nyaka.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Disemba 13-2021