Ukusukela ekungeneni kukaJuni, umkhwa wokuhla kwexabiso le-RMB uyabonakala, kwaye noluhlu lokuguquguquka luye lwakhula.Lithuba elihle lokubaPcb Screw Terminal Block,iphini kunye nezihlanganisi zesokethikwayei-electroform yokubonisaintsimi.
Ukongeza, ngokwemigaqo yokusetyenziswa kwemali yangaphandle, idatha ye-China yokuthumela ngaphandle kunye ne-surplus data ngoMeyi yayingaphantsi kunokuba bekulindelwe, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto ezithengiswayo kwakhokelela ekunyukeni okubukhali kokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe unyaka nonyaka, kunye nokunyuka kwentlawulo yokungenisa imali yangaphandle ekuboneleleni nasekufuneni. Utshintshiselwano lwamazwe angaphandle kunye nezinga lonaniselwano lwe-RMB nalo lubonisa ngokuthe ngcembe.
Ngexesha elifanayo, imarike yakutshanje ithenga utshintshiselwano lwangaphandle lunomdla ngakumbi.Ngokwesiqhelo ukusuka ngoJuni ukuya kuJulayi, abatyali-zimali bamanye amazwe kunye neenkampani ezidweliswe phesheya ziya kungena kwincopho yentlawulo yezabelo.Okwangoku, imfuno yokuthengwa kwemali yangaphandle ikwazisa uxinzelelo oluthile lokuhla kwexabiso kwi-RMB.
Ukususela kwimeko yangaphandle, i-index yexabiso labathengi base-US (CPI) ngoMeyi yanda i-5% ngonyaka ekukhuleni konyaka kwiminyaka eyi-13, iphakamisa inkxalabo malunga nokuqiniswa komgaqo-mali we-Fed, i-dollar index ephezulu, i-yuan ingaba phantsi koxinzelelo.
Ubume bexeshana elifutshane kwimarike yotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle kuya kujongana nempembelelo enkulu.Ukukhangela phambili kwinqanaba elilandelayo, abahlalutyi abaninzi balindele ukuba izinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB kunzima ukuhamba ngaphandle kwendlela yokuxabisa i-unilateral.Nge "window" yokunciphisa i-Federal Reserve isondela, izinto ezininzi zomeleza idola ngokuthe ngcembe, kwaye izinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB lunokujongana noxinzelelo oluphantsi kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka.
01 Umahluko olindelekileyo kwiMarike kwizinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB
Ukusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, izinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB xa lithelekiswa nedola yaseMelika lihlala liguquguquka ngeendlela ezimbini kwaye lizinzile ngokubanzi, kodwa imeko ezinzileyo nekhawulezayo yokuxabisa yavela ngo-Epreli nangoMeyi, nto leyo ethe yatsala ingqalelo engakumbi.Ekupheleni kukaMeyi, zombini elunxwemeni nakwi-RMB engaselunxwemeni inyuke yaya kutsho kwi-6.35 yuan, phantse iminyaka emithathu ukuphakama.Kwiziseko zezoqoqosho azizange zibonakale zitshintshile kakhulu, kukho uxabiso olukhawulezayo lwezinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB lunomngcipheko othile wokulungiswa ngokugqithisileyo.
Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, amagunya alawulayo agxininise ukuba "ukuguquguquka kweendlela ezimbini kuqhelekile", "ngokungagungqiyo ukubetha kuzo zonke iintlobo zoqheliso olukhohlakeleyo lwentengiso kunye nokuveliswa okukhohlakeleyo kokulindelwe kwelinye icala", "ungabheji ngoxabiso okanye ukuhla kweRMB. izinga lotshintshiselwano, ukugembula kuya kulahlekelwa ixesha elide", kwaye wazisa imilinganiselo ekujoliswe kuyo ukuzinzisa kunye nokukhokela ulindelo kwimarike.
Abathathi-nxaxheba beMakethi babonise ukuba iintlanganiso ezibalulekileyo zamva nje kunye nabasemagunyeni olawulo baye baphawula malunga nomba wezinga lotshintshiselwano ngamaxesha amaninzi, kwaye baphakamisa umlinganiselo wokugcinwa kweediphozithi zotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle kumaziko emali kunye nezinye iimpawu zohlengahlengiso lomgaqo-nkqubo wokuguquguquka kwexabiso lokutshintsha kwe-RMB, kunye ne-RMB yemarike. okulindelweyo kwizinga lotshintshiselwano nako kwahlulwa.
UTang Jianwei, umphandi oyintloko kwiZiko loPhando lwezeMali leBhanki yoNxibelelwano, wathi abasemagunyeni botshintshiselwano lwasekhaya barhoxile kungenelelo oluqhelekileyo kwimarike yotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle, kodwa basaya kukhokela ulindelo lwemarike ngokusebenzisa izixhobo ezithile zomgaqo-nkqubo ukukhuthaza ezimbini- indlela yokuguquguquka kweempawu zexabiso lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB.
Isalathiso sedola asiyi kuncipha ixesha elide
Inkuthazo eyomeleleyo yemali inokukhawulezisa ukubuyiswa koqoqosho lwase-US, ngaloo ndlela yomeleza idola.Kutshanje, iUnited States icwangcisa kwaye ifuna isicwangciso esitsha sokuvuselela imali ukuphehlelela isicwangciso semali esizizigidi ezi-6 zeerandi.
Nangona "iya kuba nothotho lobunzima ekuphunyezweni kwesicwangciso sokuvuselela imali, ukulindela okuthembayo kwikamva loqoqosho lwase-US kunye nesiphumo esisebenzayo samanyathelo athile anokuba yenye yezinto eziqhubela phambili ukomelezwa kwexesha le-dollar yase-US; kwaye izinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB kunzima ukuphuma kwindlela yokuxabisa yasePingchuan."U-Zhixin oyingcali yezoqoqosho kunye nomongameli weziko lophando u-Lian Ping uthe.
Ukongeza, i-United States kunye namanye amazwe aphuhlileyo kulindeleke ukuba afezekise ukukhuseleka komhlambi kwikota yesithathu, kwaye i-PMI eYurophu nase-United States iye yabetha iphakamileyo entsha kwixesha elizayo elingekude, ebonisa ukuba ukunyuka koqoqosho kuqinisa kakhulu. , kunye neenzuzo ezinxulumene neziseko zezoqoqosho zaseTshayina ziya kucutha.
U-Lian Ping uthe kwixesha langoku nakwixesha elizayo, uqoqosho lwase-US lunokugqithisa ummandla we-euro ngeendlela ezininzi, kwaye i-index ye-dollar inokomelela ngamaxesha athile.Kwaye imingcipheko yezelizwe jikelele iya kunciphisa imfuno yedola.
U-Tang Jianwei uphinde wagxininisa ukuba ukunciphisa "i-gap yokukhula" yoqoqosho lwase-US kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka kuya kuba yinto ebalulekileyo ekunciphiseni izinga lokutshintsha kwe-RMB.
Waphawula ukuba uqoqosho lwase-US lunokomeleza kwakhona idola kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka.Ukongeza, kulo nyaka, uqoqosho lwaseTshayina luya kubonisa indlela "ephezulu kwaye iphantsi", ngelixa i-United States kunye nehlabathi linokuthi "liphantsi kwaye liphezulu".Ukunciphisa "ukuhluma kokukhula" koqoqosho lwase-US kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka kuya kubeka uxinzelelo kwizinga lokutshintshiselwa kwe-RMB.Nangona izinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB liqhubekile nokunyuka kutshanje, aliyi kuphuma kwi-unilateral liphezulu, kodwa uxinzelelo lukhulu.
Uthintelo lwendyikityha kunye nezinto zolawulo nazo ziya kuba yinkxaso ebalulekileyo yokunyusa idola eyomeleleyo.UZhang Yu, umhlalutyi oyintloko we-Huachuang Securities, ukholelwa ukuba lo mjikelo wothintelo kunye nolawulo lobhubhane ungcono kuneYurophu.Nangona izinto zexesha elifutshane ezifana nokugonywa ngokukhawuleza eYurophu ziye zenza buthathaka idola kwiinyanga ezimbini ezidlulileyo, azikwazi ukuthintela idola ukuba ibuyele kwixesha eliphakathi kunye nexesha elide, kwaye i-RMB ingaba kufuphi ne-inflection point of depreciation.
Ungqamaniso lwe-China kunye ne-US umgaqo-mali wemali unokucinezela ireyithi ye-RMB.Nje ukuba i-United States inyuse izinga lenzala, kunokwenzeka ukuba i-China ayizukulandela ngokukhawuleza, kwaye izinga lenzala elisasazeke phakathi kwe-China ne-United States liya kuncipha ngakumbi, okanye linokuba nokusasazeka okubuyela umva, okuya kutyhala idola yomelele.""Utshilo uLian Ping.
Izinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB ka-2003 lijongene noxinzelelo lokuhla kwexabiso phakathi konyaka
Ngaphantsi kwenkqubo yezinga lotshintshiselwano lwangoku, izinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB kulindeleke ukuba ligcine ukuguquguquka kweendlela ezimbini.UPan Gongsheng, umlawuli we-State Administration of Foreign Exchange, uthe kwi-Forum yaseLujiazui kukho ukungaqiniseki okuninzi kunye nezinto ezingazinzanga kwimeko yangaphandle echaphazela utshintsho lwezinga lokutshintshiselwa.Ulawulo lomngcipheko wotshintshiselwano lweshishini kufuneka luthintele "i-pro-cyclical" kunye "neze" yokuziphatha, ungabheji kuxabiso okanye ukuhla kwexabiso le-RMB, ukugembula kuya kulahlekelwa ixesha elide.
Abathathi-nxaxheba abaninzi beemarike bakholelwa ukuba kwisiqingatha sesibini salo nyaka, i-RMB yokutshintsha izinga loxinzelelo lokunciphisa ixabiso liphezulu.Ukuze ukomeleza ulawulo lwemali yangaphandle kumaziko emali, iBhanki yaBantu yaseTshayina inyuse umlinganiselo wogcino yimali yotshintshiselwano ngedipozithi yotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle yamaziko emali ngamanqaku amabini epesenti ukusukela nge-15 kaJuni, eya kumisa malunga ne-20 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kumalinge okuhlawula amatyala. kunye nokunceda ekuqiniseni ukuthengiswa kwemali yangaphandle kwimarike yangaphakathi.
Kwangaxeshanye, ngokutsho kumava eminyaka edlulileyo, ngoJuni ukuya ku-Agasti lixesha lencopho yotshintshiselwano lwemali yangaphandle kumashishini aseTshayina adweliswe phesheya kolwandle, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba kulo nyaka kube phezulu ngaphezu kwe-70 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, nto leyo iya kuba yinto ebalulekileyo ekukhuthazeni ukuhla kwexabiso le-RMB kwixesha lakutshanje.
"Nangona ulawulo lwezotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle lwaseChina lunika ukungenelela ngokuqhelekileyo kwimarike yotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle, luya kukhokela ulindelo lweemarike ngokusebenzisa ezinye izixhobo zomgaqo-nkqubo ukukhuthaza iimpawu ezimbini zokuguquguquka kwexabiso le-RMB.""" Utshilo uTang Jianwei.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jun-17-2021