Ukusukela oko kungene ngoJuni, ukuhla kwexabiso le-RMB kuyabonakala, kwaye uluhlu lokuguquguquka nalo luye lwanyuka. Lithuba elihle lokuba PCB Screw Terminal Block, izihlanganisi zepini kunye nesokhethikwaye i-electroform yokubonakalisaintsimi.
Ukongeza, malunga nokusetyenziswa kotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle, idatha ye-China yokuthumela ngaphandle kunye neyorhwebo engaphezulu ngoMeyi yayiphantsi kunokuba bekulindelwe, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso eemveliso kukhokelele ekunyukeni okukhulu kokungeniswa kwempahla unyaka nonyaka, kwaye ukunyuka kwentlawulo yokungeniswa kwempahla yangaphandle kwimpahla kunye nemfuno yotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle kunye nezinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB nako kubonakala kancinci kancinci.
Kwangaxeshanye, imakethi yakutshanje yokuthenga utshintshiselwano lwangaphandle inomdla ngakumbi. Ngokwesiqhelo ukususela ngoJuni ukuya kuJulayi, abatyali-mali bamanye amazwe kunye neenkampani ezidweliswe kwamanye amazwe baya kungena kwincopho yexesha lokuhlawula izabelo. Okwangoku, imfuno yokuthenga utshintshiselwano lwangaphandle ikwazisa uxinzelelo oluthile lokwehla kwexabiso kwi-RMB.
Ngokwemeko-bume yangaphandle, i-US consumer price index (CPI) ngoMeyi yonyuse i-5% ngonyaka xa kuthelekiswa nokukhula konyaka kwiminyaka eli-13, nto leyo ephakamisa inkxalabo malunga nokuqiniswa kwe-Fed kwimigaqo-nkqubo yemali, i-dollar index iphezulu, i-yuan isenokuba phantsi koxinzelelo.
Ukungabi namali okwethutyana kwimarike yotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle kuya kujongana nempembelelo enkulu. Bejonge phambili kwinqanaba elilandelayo, uninzi lwabahlalutyi lulindele ukuba izinga lokutshintshiselana le-RMB kunzima ukulishiya kwindlela yokuxabisa enye. Njengoko "ifestile" yokulula kweFederal Reserve isondela, izinto ezininzi zomeleza idola kancinci kancinci, kwaye izinga lokutshintshiselana le-RMB lisenokujongana noxinzelelo oluphantsi kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka.
01 Umahluko olindelekileyo kwimarike kwizinga lokutshintshiselana kwe-RMB
Ukususela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, izinga lokutshintshiselana nge-RMB xa kuthelekiswa nedola yaseMelika lihlale litshintsha-tshintsha kwaye lizinzile ngokubanzi, kodwa uguquko oluqhubekayo nolukhawulezayo luvele ngo-Epreli nangoMeyi, oluye lwatsala ingqalelo engakumbi. Ekupheleni kukaMeyi, zombini i-RMB yolwandle kunye neyolwandle inyukele kwi-6.35 yuan, ukuphakama okuphantse kube yiminyaka emithathu. Kwiziseko zoqoqosho azibonakali utshintsho oluninzi, kukho ukwehla ngokukhawuleza kwezinga lokutshintshiselana nge-RMB kunomngcipheko othile wokulungiswa ngokugqithisileyo.
Ngenxa yoku, amagunya olawulo agxininise ukuba "ukuguquguquka kweendlela ezimbini kuqhelekile", "ngokungqongqo acinezele zonke iintlobo zokukhwabanisa kwemarike okungalunganga kunye nokuveliswa kolindelo olubi oluvela kwicala elinye", "musa ukubheja ekuxabisekeni okanye ekwehleni kwexabiso le-RMB exchange rate, ukungcakaza kuya kulahlekelwa ixesha elide", kwaye kwangeniswa amanyathelo athile ajoliswe ekuzinziseni nasekukhokeleni ulindelo lwemarike.
Abathathi-nxaxheba kwiMarike babonise ukuba iintlanganiso ezibalulekileyo zakutshanje kunye neegunya zolawulo ziye zaphawula ngomba wezinga lokutshintshiselana amaxesha amaninzi, kwaye zaphakamisa umlinganiselo wokugcina wediphozithi zokutshintshiselana kwamanye amazwe kumaziko emali kunye nezinye iimpawu zokulungiswa komgaqo-nkqubo wokuguquguquka kwezinga lokutshintshiselana kwe-RMB, kwaye ulindelo lwezinga lokutshintshiselana kwe-RMB kwimarike nalo lwahlukile.
UTang Jianwei, umphandi oyintloko kwiZiko loPhando lwezeMali leBhanki yoNxibelelwano, uthe amagunya okutshintshiselana ngemali asekhaya arhoxile ekungeneleleni okuqhelekileyo kwimarike yokutshintshiselana ngemali yangaphandle, kodwa aza kuqhubeka ekhokela ulindelo lwemarike ngokusebenzisa ezinye izixhobo zomgaqo-nkqubo ukukhuthaza iimpawu zokuguquguquka kwexabiso lokutshintshiselana kwemali ze-RMB.
Isalathisi sedola asiyi kwehla ixesha elide
Ukuvuselelwa kwezemali okunamandla kunokukhawulezisa ukubuyiselwa koqoqosho lwaseMelika, ngaloo ndlela kuqinise idola. Kutshanje, iMelika iceba kwaye inyanzelisa isicwangciso esitsha sokuvuselela imali ukuze iqalise isicwangciso sokuvuselela imali seedola eziyi-6 trillion.
Nangona "kuza kuba nothotho lweengxaki ekuphunyezweni kwesicwangciso sokuvuselela imali, ulindelo olunethemba ngekamva loqoqosho lwaseMelika kunye nesiphumo esisebenzayo seminye imiqathango inokuba yenye yezinto eziqhuba ukomelela kwedola yaseMelika rhoqo, kwaye izinga lokutshintshiselana nge-RMB kunzima ukuphuma kwindlela yokuxabisa iPingchuan," utshilo ingcali yezoqoqosho eyintloko yotyalo-mali yeZhixin kunye nomongameli wesikhungo sophando uLian Ping.
Ukongeza, i-United States kunye namanye amazwe aphuhlileyo kulindeleke ukuba afikelele kwi-held immunity kwikota yesithathu, kwaye i-PMI eYurophu nase-United States ifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu kungekudala, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba isantya sokubuyiselwa koqoqosho siyaqina kakhulu, kwaye iingenelo zeziseko zoqoqosho zaseTshayina ziya kuncipha.
ULian Ping uthe kwixesha langoku nelizayo, uqoqosho lwaseMelika lunokuphumelela ngaphezu kwe-euro zone ngeendlela ezininzi, kwaye i-dollar index inokuqina rhoqo. Kwaye iingozi ze-geopolitical zehlabathi nazo ziya kunyusa imfuno yedola ngezigaba.
UTang Jianwei ukwagxininise ukuba ukuncitshiswa "komsantsa wokukhula" koqoqosho lwaseMelika kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka kuya kuba yinto ebalulekileyo ekwehleni kwexabiso le-RMB exchange rate.
Uqaphele ukuba uqoqosho lwaseMelika lunokomeleza idola kwakhona kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka. Ukongeza, kulo nyaka, uqoqosho lwaseTshayina luza kubonisa umkhwa "wokuphakama nokuphantsi", ngelixa i-United States kunye nehlabathi lisenokuba "phantsi nokuphezulu". Ukuncitshiswa "komahluko wokukhula" koqoqosho lwaseMelika kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka kuya kubeka uxinzelelo kwizinga lokutshintshiselana nge-RMB. Nangona izinga lokutshintshiselana nge-RMB liqhubekile nokunyuka kutshanje, aliyi kuphuma kumkhwa wokunyuka kwelinye icala, kodwa uxinzelelo lukhulu.
Izinto zokuthintela nokulawula ubhubhane nazo ziya kuba yinkxaso ebalulekileyo yokunyusa idola enamandla. UZhang Yu, umhlalutyi oyintloko weHuachuang Securities, ukholelwa ukuba olu jikelezo lokuthintela nokulawula ubhubhane lungcono kuneYurophu. Nangona izinto zexesha elifutshane ezifana nokugonywa ngokukhawuleza eYurophu ziye zanciphisa idola kwiinyanga ezimbini ezidlulileyo, azinakuthintela idola ukuba ibuyele kwisimo sayo kwixesha eliphakathi nelide, kwaye i-RMB isenokuba kufutshane nenqanaba lokwehla kwexabiso.
Ukuhambelana kwemigaqo-nkqubo yemali yaseTshayina neyaseMelika kunokunyanzelisa izinga lokutshintshiselana nge-RMB. "Nje ukuba iMelika inyuse izinga lenzala, kusenokwenzeka ukuba iTshayina ayizukulandela ngokukhawuleza, kwaye ukusasazeka kwenzala phakathi kweTshayina neMelika kuya kuncipha ngakumbi, okanye kusenokuba nokusasazeka okungasemva ngokwezigaba, okuya kuyinyusa ngamandla idola." "" utshilo uLian Ping.
Izinga lokutshintshiselana nge-RMB lika-2003 lijongene noxinzelelo lokwehla kwexabiso kulo nyaka
Phantsi kwenkqubo yangoku yezinga lokutshintshiselana, izinga lokutshintshiselana le-RMB kulindeleke ukuba ligcine ukuguquguquka okubini. UPan Gongsheng, umlawuli woLawulo lweLizwe lwezoTshintshiselwano lwaMazwe angaphandle, uthe kwiLujiazui Forum ukuba kukho ukungaqiniseki okuninzi kunye nezinto ezingazinzanga kwimeko-bume yangaphandle echaphazela utshintsho lwezinga lokutshintshiselana. Ulawulo lomngcipheko wezinga lokutshintshiselana kwamashishini kufuneka luphephe ukuziphatha "okuxhasa ukujikeleza" kunye "nobuze", ungabheki ekuxabisekeni okanye ekwehleni kwexabiso le-RMB, ukungcakaza kuya kulahlekelwa ixesha elide.
Abathathi-nxaxheba abaninzi kwimarike bakholelwa ukuba kwisiqingatha sesibini salo nyaka, uxinzelelo lokwehla kwexabiso le-RMB lokutshintshiselana kwemali luphezulu. Ukuze komelezwe ulawulo lokuguquguquka kwemali yamanye amazwe kumaziko emali, iBhanki yabantu yaseTshayina inyuse umlinganiselo wokugcina imali kwiidiphozithi zokutshintshiselana kwemali zamanye amazwe kumaziko emali ngama-2 ekhulwini ukusukela nge-15 kaJuni, nto leyo eza kumisa malunga ne-20 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kwi-liquidity yemali yamanye amazwe kwaye incede ekuqiniseni ukuguquguquka kwemali yamanye amazwe kwimarike yasekhaya.
Kwangaxeshanye, ngokwamava eminyaka edlulileyo, ukusuka ngoJuni ukuya ku-Agasti lixesha eliphezulu lokutshintshiselana ngotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle kumashishini aseTshayina aphesheya kwezilwandle, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba lo nyaka ufikelele ngaphezulu kwe-70 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi, nto leyo eya kuba yinto ebalulekileyo ekukhuthazeni ukwehla kwexabiso le-RMB kwixesha lakutshanje.
"Nangona ulawulo lwemali yangaphandle lwaseTshayina luyeka ukungenelela kwalo okuqhelekileyo kwimarike yemali yangaphandle, luya kuqhubeka nokukhokela ulindelo lwemarike ngokusebenzisa ezinye izixhobo zomgaqo-nkqubo ukukhuthaza iimpawu zokuguquguquka kwexabiso lokutshintshiselana kwe-RMB." "" utshilo uTang Jianwei.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Juni-17-2021