A ranar 7 ga Yuni, Freightwaves ta buga wani kasida da Henry Byers ya sanya wa hannu, wadda ta yi nazari kan dalilai da dama na raguwar bukatar shigo da kaya daga Amurka, wanda ya cancanci a yi la'akari da shi daga kamfanonin shigo da kaya da fitar da kaya. Masu Nuna Haske, Masu Haɗawa na Tashar Toshe
kuma Mai haɗa din pin 4 ya kamata a lura.
Sabbin bayanai kan rajistar kwantena na jigilar kaya sun nuna cewa duk da ƙarfin matakan 2022 a cikin watanni biyar na farko na 2022. Yayin da ƙarfin jigilar kaya a faɗin Pacific ya kasance mai daidaito, Freightos (Bayanin Edita: Tsarin rajistar kaya na duniya da biyan kuɗi) ya nuna farashin kwantena na musamman, daga China zuwa gabar tekun yamma, ya faɗi da kashi 38 cikin ɗari na wata-wata zuwa dala $9,630.
Duk da cewa jigilar kaya za ta ji daɗin faɗaɗa ribar jigilar kaya, kamfanonin jigilar kaya na Amurka da masu samar da kayayyaki na zamani za su iya fara ganin raguwar jigilar kaya.
Tsarin siyan masu sayayya yana daidaita cikin sauri zuwa matakan kafin annoba, yayin da dillalan kayayyaki na Amurka ke fama da yawan kaya. Hannun jarin da aka yi niyya sun faɗi a safiyar Talata bayan shugabannin kamfanoni sun ce za su bayar da rangwame, su soke umarnin siyayya da kuma ɗaukar mataki cikin sauri don kawar da yawan kaya.
Wannan kuma ya haifar da raguwar kashi 36 cikin 100 na shigo da kwantena daga Amurka daga dukkan sauran ƙasashe, ko dai shekara bayan shekara, ko kuma komawa matakin bazara na 2020. To me ya haifar da raguwar shigo da kwantena kwatsam? Waɗannan abubuwan suna tare don bayyana raguwar adadi kwatsam.
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Babban abin da ya jawo hakan shi ne koma-baya a hannun jarin Amurka. Wannan ya faru ne saboda kamfanonin da ke ƙoƙarin cike mafi yawan kayayyakin da suka ƙare a shekarar 2021, yayin da kuma suke son adana isassun kayayyaki don magance wasu matsalolin da suka shafi sufuri. Waɗannan damuwar ta ƙara ta'azzara ne sakamakon zagayen kulle-kullen da aka yi a jere, amma haɗarin da ke tattare da siyasa ya ƙaru ne kawai bayan rikicin fiye da kwanaki 100 da suka gabata; kamfanoni sun yanke shawara, ko da kuwa sun fuskanci haɗarin ƙaruwar buƙatun masu amfani da kayayyaki a ƙasashen waje.
Don haka idan yanayin masu saye yanzu yana canzawa daga kaya zuwa ayyuka, waɗannan kamfanonin samar da kayayyaki na iya makale cikin tara kaya da yawa ko kuma a kan kayayyaki marasa kyau don tabbatar da tallace-tallace. Tarin kaya ba makawa zai haifar da raguwar sabbin odar shigo da kaya, don haka yana ƙara kawo cikas ga buƙatar shigo da kwantena na Amurka. A ranar Talata kawai, Target ta sanar da wani shirin rage kaya mai "tsanani" wanda ya mayar da hankali kan soke oda da haɓaka farashi.
A sama, suna nuna karuwar kayayyaki, da kuma ƙasa, waɗanda ke nuna raguwar shigo da kayayyaki daga ƙasashen waje, dillalan kayayyaki suna rage saurin hanyoyin sadarwarsu bayan ƙaruwar kaya ta ƙarshe da ta afku a gabar tekun Amurka.
Ana murkushe masu amfani
Yayin da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ke ci gaba da ƙaruwa kuma farashin ya ƙara tsada, masu sayayya suna ƙara ta'azzara. A wannan makon, AAA (bayanin edita: American Automobile Association, AAA) ya ba da rahoton sabon hauhawar farashin dala $4.51 a kowace galan.
Wasu masana tattalin arziki suna hasashen cewa za mu iya fuskantar "kololuwar hauhawar farashin kaya" yayin da Fed ta fara ƙara yawan riba da rage ma'auninta. Duk da haka, ko da matsin lamba na hauhawar farashin kaya ya fara raguwa, masu amfani na iya fuskantar ƙarin riba saboda amfani da bashi, wanda zai iya ƙara ta'azzara buƙatu da kashe kuɗi na zaɓi.
Amfani da katin kiredit ya ƙaru yayin da ƙimar ajiyar kuɗi ta mutum ke ci gaba da raguwa kuma ta koma ga mafi ƙarancin ƙimar riba (ƙarin ƙarshe shine 4.4) tun bayan babban rikicin kuɗi (4.5 a watan Agusta 2009). Ga hanyoyi guda biyu don fassara ƙarancin ƙimar tanadi: ko dai masu sayayya suna da ƙarfin gwiwa sosai kuma suna son kashe kuɗi, ko kuma suna kashe kowace dala da suke da ita don biyan buƙatunsu tare da hauhawar farashin kaya.—— Yana da wuya a yi tunanin yadda kashe kuɗin masu sayayya ke ƙaruwa a wannan lokacin.
Abin takaici, hauhawar farashin makamashi da abinci ba su san ko sun damu da yadda aljihun masu amfani da kayayyaki na Amurka yake ba —— yadda hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a waɗannan masana'antu ke faruwa ne sakamakon girgizar wadata, ba ta hanyar ƙarfafa buƙata ba. Wani abin da za a tuna shi ne cewa karuwar farashin masu samar da kayayyaki ta fi farashin masu amfani da kayayyaki yawa, don haka wasu masu samar da kayayyaki har yanzu suna iya fuskantar hauhawar farashi, amma har yanzu ba su isar da wannan ga masu amfani da kayayyaki ba.
Don haka yayin da jimillar bashin da ke juyawa ya kai matakin kafin annobar, yana kara sauri, kuma idan farashi ya ci gaba da hauhawa, ya dace a yi tsammanin bashin da ke juyawa zai karu.
Da farko, teburin sayar da kayayyaki (jadawali da ke ƙasa) zai iya kammala da cewa tallace-tallacen shaguna suna ƙaruwa, amma ku tuna cewa ana auna wannan da dala kaɗan, ba a daidaita shi da hauhawar farashi ba, kuma yana wakiltar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki - ba ƙarfin tattalin arziki ko juriyar masu amfani ba. Kamfanonin samar da kayayyaki ba su kaɗai ba ne, kuma kamfanonin ayyuka da fasaha suma za su fuskanci matsin lamba a cikin watanni masu zuwa, kuma sayar da hannun jari na iya haifar da korar ma'aikata.
Muna ganin ƙarin alamu da ke nuna cewa ana ƙara lalata buƙatar masu amfani da kayayyaki a Amurka kuma adadin kwantena da aka shigo da su daga ƙasashen waje zai faɗi zuwa kusan matakin 2019, don haka layukan ciniki na China da Amurka waɗanda suka fi mai da hankali kan yawancin cinikin ya cancanci a yi nazari a kansu.
Idan aka duba jimillar yawan tashoshin jiragen ruwa daga China zuwa Amurka, za mu iya ganin raguwar zirga-zirgar ababen hawa daga "kololuwar lokacin kololuwar" a watan Satumba na 2021 zuwa Talata (yanzu ya ragu da kashi 51% daga kololuwar). Duk da cewa a tarihi (kafin yakin ciniki / barkewar cutar), a ƙarshen Maris zuwa farkon Mayu yawan hanyoyin kasuwanci yana da rauni sosai, amma ya kamata kuma a fahimci cewa gwamnatin China a Shanghai da sauran muhimman sassan masana'antu (musamman a kusa da Beijing da kuma kusa da babban tashar jiragen ruwa a Tianjin) matakan rigakafin annoba da kulawa da toshewa sun ƙara ƙaruwar raguwar yawan zirga-zirga.
Duk da toshewar, raguwar zirga-zirgar ababen hawa a babbar hanyar kasuwanci da alama ba makawa ce a shekarar 2022, domin yawan jama'a tsakanin China da China ya kai wani matsayi da ba a taɓa ganin irinsa ba kuma ba za a iya jurewa ba a shekarar 2021. Yanzu, tare da sake buɗe China, wasu masu lura da masana'antu sun yi kira da a "ƙara yawan kwantena," amma da alama katsewar buƙatu ya shafi hanyar kasuwanci sosai.
Ba a taɓa yin irin wannan "ƙaruwar kwantena" ba a da
Yawancin "ƙaruwar kwantena" da ake tsammani daga Shanghai (wanda aka yi la'akari da koma-baya a lokacin toshewar) sun yi kama da sun bar tashar jiragen ruwa ta Ningbo. Saboda ƙuntatawa ta cikin gida (watau, rufe hanyoyi), an toshe hanyoyin shiga tashar jiragen ruwa sosai, kuma masu jigilar kaya sun sake tsara jigilar kayayyaki cikin sauri ta babban tashar jiragen ruwa mafi kusa da tashar jiragen ruwa. Raguwar sabbin rajista (da yawan kaya) tun lokacin da aka toshe hanyar jiragen ruwa ta Shanghai a ƙarshen Maris ya ragu sakamakon karuwar jigilar kayayyaki daga Ningbo. Saboda masu jigilar kaya suna gaggawar fitar da kayayyaki, wannan kuma yana kawo lokutan jigilar kaya zuwa mafi ƙanƙanta a tarihi.
Duk da sake buɗe birnin Shanghai, jimillar kwantena daga China zuwa Amurka na ci gaba da raguwa, kuma sauƙaƙe sabbin matakan shawo kan cutar coronavirus kaɗai ba zai iya mayar da martani ba. Dangane da sabbin bayanai, idan wannan shine "ƙaruwar kwantena" daga tashoshin jiragen ruwa na Shanghai zuwa Amurka lokacin da aka sake buɗe su a ranar Laraba da ta gabata, wannan kusan ba shi da wani muhimmanci idan aka kwatanta da abin da muka gani daga Shanghai zuwa Amurka a cikin watanni 18-22 da suka gabata. Wannan "ƙaruwar" na iya canzawa cikin sauƙi a cikin bayanan rajistar mu a cikin makonni masu zuwa, kuma idan aka danne buƙata, babu shakka za a nuna shi a ciki, amma har zuwa ranar Talata da ta gabata, ba a aiwatar da shi ta kowace hanya a bayyane ba.
Raguwar zirga-zirgar ababen hawa daga China zuwa Amurka ta ragu sosai, wanda hakan ya haifar da raguwar farashin jigilar kaya daga matakin buƙata. Ganin cewa karfin sufuri ya kasance mai daidaito a makonnin farko bayan toshewar (bayan 28 ga Maris), zirga-zirgar ababen hawa ta fadi a farashin China / Gabashin Asiya-Gabashin Gabashin Yamma na ma'aunin jigilar kaya na Freightos Baltic (41% a kowane wata na FEU zuwa $9,630 a kowace FEU, da kuma 36% zuwa $11,907 a kowace FEU). Ga masu jigilar kaya waɗanda ke fama da hauhawar farashin jigilar kaya a shekarar 2021, ya kamata mu tuna cewa waɗannan farashin suna ƙaruwa kowace shekara (73% a Gabashin Yamma da 59% a Gabashin).
Idan yin rajista ya ci gaba da raguwa a watan Yuni, muna sa ran ƙarin farashin wurare a kan hanyar ciniki zai faɗi, amma kamfanonin jigilar kaya na iya yin aiki tuƙuru fiye da kowane lokaci don ƙoƙarin kare ribar da suka samu. Sun riga sun rage ƙarfin aiki a manyan hanyoyin kasuwanci ta hanyar soke hanyoyi da rage jiragen ruwa, amma idan raguwar yin rajista ta hanzarta a cikin makonni masu zuwa, za mu iya ganin cewa za a gwada ƙawancen jiragen ruwa ta hanyar ƙarfi da iko da ba a taɓa gani ba.
Idan farashin jigilar kaya ya fara raguwa da sauri, ya dace a yi zargin cewa kamfanonin jigilar kaya waɗanda ba su haɗa mafi yawan kasuwancinsu da kwangilolin dogon lokaci ba za su rage farashinsu sosai don yin gogayya a kasuwar da ba ta dace ba.
Abin sha'awa, tattaunawar ƙarshe ta ma'aikatan tashar jiragen ruwa a Tashar Jiragen Ruwa ta Long Beach da ke Los Angeles a tsakanin 2014-2015 ta haifar da katsewar sarkar samar da kayayyaki (wanda ya ƙara yawan kayayyaki a Amurka), wanda ya haifar da irin wannan yanayi. Wannan ba zai yi kama da gaskiya ba bayan shekara guda da aka yi rikodin, amma raguwar ƙimar wurare zai iya haifar da sake fasalin da/ko sake fasalin ƙungiyar jiragen ruwa ta yanzu.
Lokacin Saƙo: Yuni-23-2022