"Kua tino piki ake te tokomaha o ngā kawemai e ārai ana i te mōrearea o te hekenga o te yuan mā te ārai moni i ēnei rā whai muri i te tukunga a te Fed i te tohu whakahekenga o te pepa toenga i te Rāpare whakamutunga." I kōrero tētahi peeke hea tahi ki te tumuaki o te tari pakihi tūmatanui. Hononga taura papatahi, ngā hononga ūropi me whakaata tapatoru me mōhio.
I mua, ka peti tika ēnei kaikawemai ki te utu whakawhiti RMB, engari ināianei ka whiriwhiri rātou ki te hoko moni ke —— me te utu whakawhiti whakamua o te 6.6-6.7. Mēnā ka heke te utu whakawhiti RMB ki raro iho i te 6.7, ka taea tonu e rātou te hoko tāra US i te 6.7 me te whakaiti i ngā whakapaunga moni ke.
E mārama ana, haunga te whakanui ake i te mahi ārai moni ke hei ārai i te mōrearea o te hekenga o te utu whakawhiti RMB, he maha ngā umanga kawemai e piki haere ana i ngā putunga moni ke hei whakatau i te mōrearea o te hekenga o te utu whakawhiti RMB.
He kamupene hangahanga i Jiangsu me te āpiha pūtea matua o te rohe o Jiangsu, e rua ngā utu whakawhiti moni ke hei hoko rauemi mata, engari i tēnei wiki i mutu te mahi whakawhiti moni a te kamupene mō te wā poto, nā te mea e manukanuka ana rātou kei heke te utu whakawhiti RMB a te Fed me ngā utu whakawhiti moni ke ā muri ake nei, ā, he pai ake ki te pupuri i te whakawhiti moni ke i te hauwhā tuawhā, me te whakaiti i te ngaronga pea o te whakawhiti moni ke.
E ai ki te tirohanga a te kaiwhakahaere o te tari pakihi tūmatanui o ngā peeke hea-honohono i runga ake nei, e whakaatu ana tēnei kei te piki haere te pakeke o ngā whakaaro o ngā umanga mō te hokohoko moni ke me ngā tumanakohanga mō te reiti whakawhiti moni, ā, ko ngā whakaritenga whakapaipai o ngā moni ā-rohe me ngā moni ke he mea whakaaro nui hoki, ā, kāore e hanga i ngā tumanakohanga pikinga me te hekenga uara kaha nā te whakahekenga o te pepa toenga a te Federal Reserve me ētahi atu kaupapa.
He mea tika kia mōhiotia kei te piki haere te maha o ngā umanga haumi ki tāwāhi e whakapiki puku ana i ngā mahi ārai mōrearea o te reiti whakawhiti moni.
E ai ki tētahi peeke o Hong Kong, ko te nuinga o ngā kaipupuri moni o tāwāhi kei te hoko here RMB, me te petipeti anō hoki ki tētahi kōwhiringa moni hurihuri hei ārai i te mōrearea o te hekenga o te moni, e ai ki tētahi kaihokohoko moni ke.
"Ina hoki, he mahi kore tuhituhi anō tēnei nā te Tari Hokohoko Moni Ke." I kī ia ka iti ake te ārai mōrearea moni i roto i ngā whakapaipai o tāwāhi ina pumau te moni, ina piki ake rānei, engari ka tino piki ake.
"Ina tau te utu whakawhiti RMB, ina hoki rānei ki tōna āhua pikinga, ka whakaitihia e te nuinga o ngā umanga haumi o tāwāhi ā rātou mahi tiaki mōrearea moni. I tēnei wā, kei te whakapono tonu ngā umanga haumi matua o tāwāhi kāore pea te whakahekenga o te pepa toenga a te Fed i tēnei tau e nui ake te pēhanga ki raro i te utu whakawhiti RMB. Heoi anō, ko te tipu tonu o ngā kaupapa ōhanga o Haina me te nui o te toenga o ngā utu e tautoko ana i ngā pikinga rua-ara o te utu whakawhiti RMB i roto i te utu whakawhiti taurite." I whakaae te māngai matua o tētahi tari whakahaere rawa nui o Ūropi.
I te 20:00 o te 24 o Ākuhata, i noho te utu whakawhiti RMB i te mākete o uta (CNY) ki te 6.4773, ā, i angitu te whakahokinga mai i te tohu tauoti 6.5, e whakaatu ana i te "manawanui" o te utu whakawhiti RMB.
Ngā mahi ārai utu whakawhiti hou mō ngā kamupene kawemai
"Whai muri i te hinganga o te yuan i raro iho i te 6.5 ki te tāra i te Paraire, ka tino piki ake tō rātou hihiri mō te ārai i ngā moni ke." I kōrero te peeke hea tahi kua whakahuatia ake nei ki te tumuaki o te tari pakihi tūmatanui.
He maha ngā kai kawemai i whakamahere kia tatari tae noa ki te mutunga o Ākuhata hei whakaū i te mōkihi ārai moni ke i te hauwhā tuawhā, engari i te mea kua piki haere te tere o te pikinga o te tāra i roto i te tau nā te tohu whakahekenga tēpu a te Fed, kāore e taea e rātou te "noho puku".
E ai ki ngā pūrongo, ahakoa i whakatakoto te nuinga o ngā kaikawemai i te utu whakahaere whakawhiti moni ke i waenga i te 6.6 me te 6.7, he rite tonu ā rātou tūranga ārai moni ke ki te tono moni ke a te pakihi, he rerekē ki ngā tūranga ārai RMB heke o mua, he nui ake i tā rātou tono pakihi.
"I muri i tēnei, he maha ngā umanga kawemai kua ako mai i ngā mate o mua mō te tiaki moni ke, —— e whakaarohia ana ka kite i te ia o te utu whakawhiti me te whakawhānui ake i te tauine o te tiaki moni mō ngā peti whakapae." I kōrero te peeke hea tahi ki te tumuaki o te tari pakihi tūmatanui.
I kitea e ia ahakoa te whakahaere tika i te mōrearea o te tūranga hipoki, he maha tonu ngā umanga kawemai e aro ana ki te aromatawai i ngā hua hipoki moni ke, kāore he hipoki moni ke, me te whakaiti i ngā utu whakahaere tuturu a te umanga (tae atu ki te whakaiti i ngā utu whakawhiti hoko rauemi mata kawemai, me ētahi atu), ā, nā reira he nui ake tonu te hekenga o te reiti whakawhiti peti i roto i āna mehua hipoki moni ke.
I tēnei wā, kei te whakapiki ake tana peeke hea tahi i te whakawhitiwhiti kōrero me ēnei umanga kawemai, me te taunaki kia whakauruhia e rātou ngā kōwhiringa putea whakahuri mōrearea whakawhiti moni ke —— mena kei te piki tonu te utu whakawhiti RMB a meake nei i roto i te utu whakamahi kōwhiringa putea whakahuri mōrearea whakawhiti moni ke, kāore e hiahiatia ana e ngā umanga te utu i tetahi utu, ā, ka taea te karo i te pikinga whakahuri o te utu whakawhiti RMB i puta mai i te mōrearea o te mate o ngā tauwhitinga whakawhiti moni ke.
E mārama ana kei te whakanui ake te tini o ngā kawemai i ā rātou moni tāpui ki tāwāhi, hei whakatau i te mōrearea i puta mai i te whakaiti a te Fed i te hekenga o te utu whakawhiti RMB i tēnei tau.
"Ko te take he maha ngā kamupene kua pāngia e ngā painga o tēnei mea." I kī tētahi kaihokohoko mākete pūtea i tētahi peeke nui a te kāwanatanga. I te haurua tuatahi o tēnei tau, i piki ake te toenga o ngā moni tāpui ā-rohe o ngā umanga me ētahi atu hinonga mākete mā te US $65.8 piriona i whakaritea ki te mutunga o te tau 2020, ā, he maha ngā umanga kawemai i angitu ki te karo i ngā huringa e rua o te hekenga o te reiti whakawhiti RMB i te haurua tuatahi o tēnei tau, ā, i whakaitihia ai te ngaronga o te hoko moni tāpui.
Kua tīmata anō ngā mahi ārai mōrearea o te reiti whakawhiti moni a ngā umanga haumi o tāwāhi
I te aroaro o te hekenga o te mōrearea i puta mai i te whakahekenga o te pepa toenga a te Fed i tēnei tau, kua tīmata anō ngā mahi ārai mōrearea reiti whakawhiti moni a te maha o ngā umanga haumi o tāwāhi.
"I te wā o te pikinga o te utu whakawhiti moni, te wā rānei e piki haere ana te uara o te RMB, kāore mātou i mahi i ngā mahi ārai mōrearea mō te utu whakawhiti moni i te wā i tāpirihia ai ētahi atu here RMB." I whakakitea e tētahi kaiwhakahaere pūtea ārai ōhanga nui o Wall Street kei te whakamahere rātou inaianei ki te whakanui ake i te ārai mōrearea mō te utu whakawhiti moni ki te putea here 50% RMB.
Ko te take a te tahua ārai mate, he mea pea ka horomia e te yuan ngā horapa o te whenua mēnā ka heke tere te uara e te Fed.
E whakaatu ana ngā raraunga, tae noa ki te 20:00 o te Tūrei, kua eke te rerekētanga i waenga i te hua o te Tahua Hainamana 10-tau me te hua o te Tahua o Amerika ki te 162 ngā pūtake, engari he maha ngā umanga haumi o tāwāhi e manukanuka ana mēnā ka whakaitihia e te Fed te reiti whakawhiti RMB ki waenga i te 6.55 me te 6.6, ka "horomia" tēnei hua horapa e te hekenga o te reiti whakawhiti.
I whakakitea e ngā kaihokohoko moni tāwāhi o te peeke o Hong Kong mai i te Paraire, he maha ngā umanga haumi o tāwāhi i tāpirihia ki ngā here RMB i te wā kotahi i tango i te mahi ārai mōrearea reiti whakawhiti —— ki te whakataurite ki ngā umanga kawemai ā-rohe e pai ana ki te whakamahi i te raka whakawhiti, he pai ake ki ngā umanga haumi o tāwāhi te petipeti i runga i te hekenga o te reiti whakawhiti RMB me te ārai kōwhiringa putea.
Kei muri i tēnei ko te whakapono whānui a ngā umanga haumi o tāwāhi, arā, ka taea e te pepa toenga a te Fed te whakarerekē i te reiti whakawhiti RMB i roto i te wā poto, engari kāore pea e nui ake te pānga ki te uara o te reiti whakawhiti taurite.
"Ko te RMB te tuarua o ngā moni pai rawa atu o te mākete puta mai i tēnei tau, nā te tipu tonu o ngā kaupapa ōhanga o Haina." Nā te kaitātari rautaki a Morgan Stanley, a Matthew Hornbach, i tuku te pūrongo hou. Hei tāpiri, ko te toenga utu nui o Haina ka iti ake te pēhanga ki te yuan i ērā atu whenua mākete puta mai.
E whakapono ana a Matthew Hornbach nā te whakahekenga o ngā pepa tēpu a te Fed i tino heke ai te uara o te yuan i tēnei tau.
"Ina hoki, ko te whakanui ake i te ārai mōrearea RMB he rite tonu ki te mahi ārai. Kia tau anō te utu whakawhiti RMB, kia hoki anō rānei ki te pikinga, ka tere tā mātou whakaiti i ngā mahi ārai mōrearea reiti whakawhiti." I kī te kaiwhakahaere pūtea ārai mōrearea nui o Wall Street i runga ake nei. Nā te mea, ko ngā mahi ārai mōrearea reiti whakawhiti ka utu i te hua tuturu o te putea here RMB katoa mā te 40-50.0 ngā tohu pūtake, ka ngoikore ake tā rātou mahi i ērā atu hoa pūtea ārai, ā, kāore e pai mō tā rātou kohi moni me te whakawhānui i te tauine whakahaere rawa ā muri ake nei.
Wā tuku: 27 o Ākuhata-2021