"Inani labangenisi abavikela ingozi yokwehla kwe-yuan ngokuvikela imali liye landa kakhulu kulezi zinsuku ngemuva kokuba i-Fed ikhiphe isignali yebhalansi enciphayo ngoLwesine olwedlule." Ibhange elihlangene lamasheya litshele inhloko yomnyango webhizinisi lomphakathi. Isixhumi sekhebula eliyisicaba, izixhumi ze-euro futhi isibukisi esingunxantathu kufanele kuqashelwe.
Esikhathini esidlule, laba bangenisi babebheja ngqo esilinganisweni sokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB, kodwa manje bakhetha ukuthenga ukushintshaniswa kwamanye amazwe —— ngentengo yokushintshaniswa kwangaphambili engu-6.6-6.7. Uma izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB liwela ngaphansi kuka-6.7, basengathenga amadola ase-US ku-6.7 futhi banciphise izindleko zokushintshaniswa kwamanye amazwe ngokufanele.
Kuyaqondakala ukuthi ngaphezu kokwandisa umsebenzi wokuvikela ukushintshaniswa kwemali yangaphandle ukuze kuvikelwe ingozi yokwehla kwezinga lokushintshisana kwe-RMB, amabhizinisi amaningi angenisa imali aphinde andise idiphozithi yokushintshisana kwemali yangaphandle ukuze abhekane nengozi yokwehla kwezinga lokushintshisana kwe-RMB.
Inkampani yokukhiqiza esifundeni saseJiangsu naseJiangsu, isikhulu sezezimali esikhulu, kube nezinkokhelo ezimbili zokushintshaniswa kwamanye amazwe ukuze kuthengwe izinto zokusetshenziswa, kodwa kuleli sonto inkampani imise okwesikhashana ukusebenza kokushintshaniswa, ngoba ikhathazekile ngekusasa. I-Fed izoholela ekwehleni kwezinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB kanye nezindleko zokushintshaniswa kwamanye amazwe, ingathanda ukugcina ukushintshaniswa kwamanye amazwe kwikota yesine, inciphise ukulahlekelwa okungenzeka kokushintshaniswa kwamanye amazwe.
Ngokombono womqondisi ongenhla womnyango webhizinisi lomphakathi wamabhange ahlangene, lokhu kukhombisa ukuthi amabhizinisi amaningi anezahlulelo ezivuthiwe ngokwengeziwe zokuhweba ngezimali zangaphandle kanye nokulindela izinga lokushintshisana, futhi amalungiselelo emali yezimali zasekhaya nezakwamanye amazwe nawo avame ukuba anengqondo, futhi awasakhi ukukhuphuka okuqinile kohlangothi olulodwa kanye nokulindela ukwehla kwenani ngenxa yokunciphisa ibhalansi ye-Federal Reserve kanye nezinye izehlakalo.
Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi izikhungo zokutshala imali zakwamanye amazwe eziningi ziyandisa ngokuthula imisebenzi yokuvikela izingozi zezinga lokushintshisana.
Ibhange laseHong Kong lithe iningi labatshalizimali baphesheya bathenga amabhondi e-RMB ngenkathi bebheja kuphothifoliyo yokuvikela inketho yemali eguquguqukayo ukuze bavikele ingozi yokwehla kokwehla kwemali, kusho umhwebi wezimali zangaphandle.
"Eqinisweni, lokhu futhi kuyindlela engabhalwanga yoMnyango Wezokumaketha Kwezimali Zangaphandle." Uveze ukuthi ukuvikela ubungozi bemali emalini yaphesheya kuzoba phansi uma imali izinza noma ivame ukukhuphuka, kuyilapho izovela kakhulu.
"Uma izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB selivame ukuzinza noma libuyela endleleni yalo yokwazisa, izikhungo eziningi zokutshalwa kwezimali zakwamanye amazwe zizonciphisa imisebenzi yazo yokuvikela ubungozi bemali. Njengamanje, izikhungo zokutshalwa kwezimali zakwamanye amazwe ezijwayelekile zisakholelwa ukuthi ukwehla kwebhalansi ye-Fed kulo nyaka kungase kungabi yingcindezi enkulu yokwehla kwesilinganiso sokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB. Phela, ukukhula okuqhubekayo kwezisekelo zomnotho zaseShayina kanye nebhalansi ephezulu yokukhokha kunikeza ukwesekwa okuqinile kokuguquguquka kwezindlela ezimbili kwesilinganiso sokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB esilinganisweni sokushintshaniswa esilinganisiwe." Ummeleli oyinhloko we-ejensi enkulu yokuphathwa kwempahla yaseYurophu uvumile.
Kusukela ngo-20:00 ngomhlaka-24 Agasti, izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB emakethe yasekhaya (i-CNY) lifinyelele ku-6.4773, futhi lathola ngempumelelo uphawu lwe-integer engu-6.5, okugqamisa "ukuqina" kwesilinganiso sokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB.
Imisebenzi emisha yokuvikela izinga lokushintshisana kwezimali zezinkampani zokungenisa impahla
"Ngemuva kokuthi i-yuan yehle ngaphansi kuka-6.5 uma iqhathaniswa nedola ngoLwesihlanu, intshiseko yabo yokuvikela ukuhwebelana ngemali yangaphandle yanda kakhulu." Ibhange elihlanganisiwe elishiwo ngenhla litshele inhloko yomnyango webhizinisi lomphakathi.
Abathumeli abaningi bezimpahla babehlele ukulinda kuze kube sekupheleni kuka-Agasti ukuze baqinisekise iphakheji yokuvikela ukuhwebelana kwamanye amazwe kwikota yesine, kodwa njengoba isignali yokunciphisa itafula le-Fed iqhubeka ngokuphawulekayo iholela ekukhuphukeni okusheshayo kwedola phakathi nonyaka, abasakwazi "ukuhlala phansi".
Kubikwa ukuthi nakuba iningi labangenisi libeka intengo yokusebenza yokushintshaniswa kwemali yangaphandle phakathi kuka-6.6 no-6.7, izikhundla zabo zokuvikela ukushintshaniswa kwemali yangaphandle zifana ncamashi nesidingo sangempela semali yangaphandle yebhizinisi, ngokungafani nezikhundla zangaphambilini zokuvikela i-RMB eziphansi zidlula kakhulu isidingo sabo sangempela sebhizinisi.
"Ngemuva kwalokhu, amabhizinisi amaningi angenisa impahla afunde ekulahlekelweni kokuvikela imali yangaphandle kwangaphambilini, —— okucatshangwa ukuthi kubona ukuthambekela kwesilinganiso sokushintshanisa imali futhi kwandise kakhulu izinga lokuvikela imali yokubheja okuqagelwayo." Ibhange elihlangene lamasheya litshele inhloko yomnyango webhizinisi lomphakathi.
Uthole ukuthi nakuba ingozi yesikhundla sekhava ilawulwa ngempumelelo, kodwa amabhizinisi amaningi okungenisa asagxila ekuhlolweni kwenzuzo yokushintshaniswa kwemali yangaphandle, akukho ukumbozwa kokushintshaniswa kwemali yangaphandle futhi kunciphisa izindleko zokusebenza zangempela zebhizinisi (kufaka phakathi ukunciphisa izindleko zokushintshaniswa kwezinto zokusetshenziswa zokungenisa impahla, njll.), okuholela ekutheni izinyathelo zayo zokumbozwa kokushintshaniswa kwemali yangaphandle zisenomkhuba omkhulu wokuqagela wokuwa kwezinga lokushintshaniswa kwemali yokubheja.
Njengamanje, ibhange lakhe elihlangene landisa ukuxhumana nalawa mabhizinisi angenisa imali, liwancoma ukuthi ethule izinketho zephothifoliyo yokuguqulwa kwengozi yokushintshaniswa kwemali yangaphandle —— inqobo nje uma ikhotheshini yezinga lokushintshaniswa kwemali ye-RMB yesikhathi esizayo kumanani okusebenzisa inketho yenketho yokuguqulwa kwengozi yokushintshaniswa kwemali yangaphandle, amabhizinisi awadingi ukukhokha noma yiziphi izimali, futhi angagwema ukwenyuka kokuguqulwa kwezinga lokushintshaniswa kwemali ye-RMB okubangelwa ingozi yokulahlekelwa kokuthengiselana kwemali yangaphandle ekhona.
Kuyaqondakala ukuthi abathumeli abaningi bandisa imali efakwa ekushintsheni kwamanye amazwe, ukuze babhekane nengozi ebangelwa yi-Fed yokunciphisa ukwehla kwezinga lokushintshisana kwe-RMB kulo nyaka.
"Isizathu ukuthi izinkampani eziningi ziye zajabulela izinzuzo zalokhu." Umhwebi wezimakethe zezimali ebhange elikhulu likahulumeni ukhombisile. Engxenyeni yokuqala yalo nyaka, ibhalansi yamadiphozithi okushintshaniswa kwemali yangaphandle yamabhizinisi nezinye izinhlangano zemakethe ikhuphuke kakhulu ngama-US $65.8 billion uma kuqhathaniswa nokuphela kuka-2020, okwenza amabhizinisi amaningi angenisa imali agweme ngempumelelo ukwehla kwezinga lokushintshisana kwe-RMB engxenyeni yokuqala yalo nyaka, futhi anciphise ngempumelelo ukulahlekelwa ukuthengwa kwemali yangaphandle.
Izikhungo zokutshalwa kwezimali zaphesheya kwezilwandle seziqalile kabusha imisebenzi yokuvikela ubungozi bezinga lokushintshisana kwemali
Njengoba i-Fed ibhekene nokwehla kwengozi okubangelwe ukwehla kwebhalansi kulo nyaka, izikhungo eziningi zokutshalwa kwezimali kwamanye amazwe ziqale kabusha imisebenzi yokuvikela izingozi zokushintshaniswa kwezimali.
"Ngesikhathi sokuguquguquka kwezinga lokushintshana okuzinzile noma ukuthambekela kokukhula ku-RMB, asizange senze imisebenzi yokuvikela ingozi yezinga lokushintshana lapho sengeza amabhondi e-RMB engeziwe." Umphathi omkhulu wesikhwama sokuvikela umnotho omkhulu waseWall Street wembule ukuthi manje bahlela ukwandisa ukuvikela ingozi yezinga lokushintshana kuphothifoliyo yamabhondi angu-50% e-RMB.
Isizathu sesikhwama sokuvikela inzalo ukuthi i-yuan ingagwinya ukusabalala kwezwe uma incishiswa kakhulu yi-Fed.
Idatha ikhombisa ukuthi kusukela ngo-20:00 ngoLwesibili, umehluko phakathi kwenzuzo ye-Chinese Treasury yeminyaka eyi-10 kanye nenzuzo ye-US Treasury) ufinyelele amaphuzu ayisisekelo ayi-162, kodwa izikhungo eziningi zokutshalwa kwezimali kwamanye amazwe zikhathazekile ngokuthi uma i-Fed yehlisa izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB libe phakathi kuka-6.55 no-6.6, le nzuzo yokusabalala "izogwinywa" ukwehla kwenani lentengo yokushintshaniswa.
Abahwebi bezimali zangaphandle basebhange laseHong Kong baveze ukuthi kusukela ngoLwesihlanu, izikhungo eziningi zokutshala imali kwamanye amazwe ezifaka amabhondi e-RMB ngesikhathi esifanayo zithathe umsebenzi wokuvikela ingozi yezinga lokushintshana —— uma kuqhathaniswa namabhizinisi angenisa ngaphakathi ezweni athanda ukusebenzisa i-swap lock, izikhungo zokutshala imali kwamanye amazwe zikhetha ukubheja kuphothifoliyo yezinketho zokuvikela izinga lokushintshana kwe-RMB ingozi yokuwa kwezinga lokushintshana.
Ngemuva kwalokhu kunenkolelo esakazekile yezikhungo zokutshalwa kwezimali zakwamanye amazwe yokuthi ibhalansi ye-Fed phakathi nonyaka ingase ishintshe izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB esikhathini esifushane, kodwa ingase ingabi nomthelela omkhulu ekulinganisweni kwesilinganiso sokushintshaniswa kwezimali esilinganisiwe.
"I-RMB iyimali yesibili engcono kakhulu emakethe ekhulayo kulo nyaka, ngenxa yokukhula okuqhubekayo kwezisekelo zomnotho zaseShayina." Umhlaziyi weqhinga likaMorgan Stanley uMatthew Hornbach ukhiphe umbiko wakamuva. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ibhalansi ephezulu yokukhokha yaseShayina nayo ibeka i-yuan ngaphansi kwengcindezi ephansi kakhulu yokwehla kunakwamanye amazwe emakethe ekhulayo.
UMatthew Hornbach ukholelwa ukuthi ukuncipha kweshidi letafula le-Fed kushiye i-yuan yehle kakhulu kulo nyaka.
"Eqinisweni, sandisa uthango lwengozi lwe-RMB lufana nesinyathelo sokuvimbela. Uma izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB selizinzile noma livame ukubuya, sizonciphisa ngokushesha imisebenzi yothango lwengozi yezinga lokushintshaniswa." Umphathi wesikhwama se-hedge fund esikhulu se-Wall Street uthe. Phela, imisebenzi yothango lwengozi yezinga lokushintshaniswa ibiza isivuno sangempela sephothifoliyo yonke yebhondi ye-RMB amaphuzu engeziwe angama-40-50.0, okwenza ukusebenza kwabo kube buthaka kunabanye ontanga besikhwama se-hedge futhi kungabi nomthelela ekuqoqweni kwemali kwesikhathi esizayo kanye nesilinganiso sokwanda kokuphathwa kwempahla.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Agasti-27-2021