"Inani labangenisi abathintela umngcipheko wokuwa kwe-yuan ngokukhusela imali liye landa kakhulu kule mihla emva kokuba i-Fed ikhuphe isignali yokunciphisa ibhalansi ngoLwesine odlulileyo." Ibhanki edibeneyo ixelele intloko yesebe lezoshishino likarhulumente. Isixhumi sentambo esithe tyaba, izihlanganisi ze-euro kwaye isibonisi senxantathu kufuneka kuqatshelwe.
Ngaphambili, aba bangenisi bemali babebheja ngokuthe ngqo kwizinga lokutshintshiselana le-RMB, kodwa ngoku bakhetha ukuthenga utshintshiselwano lwangaphandle —— ngexabiso lokutshintshana kwangaphambili eliyi-6.6-6.7. Ukuba izinga lokutshintshiselana le-RMB liwela ngaphantsi kwe-6.7, basenokuthenga iidola zaseMelika kwi-6.7 baze banciphise iindleko zotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle ngokufanelekileyo.
Kuyaqondakala ukuba ukongeza ekunyuseni umsebenzi wokukhusela utshintshiselwano lwangaphandle ukuze kuthintelwe umngcipheko wokwehla kwexabiso lokutshintshiselana nge-RMB, amashishini amaninzi angenisa izinto kwamanye amazwe akwanyusa idiphozithi yokutshintshiselana ngezimali zangaphandle ukuze kujongwane nomngcipheko wokwehla kwexabiso lokutshintshiselana nge-RMB.
Inkampani yokuvelisa kwiJiangsu nakwisithili saseJiangsu, igosa eliyintloko lezemali, bekukho iintlawulo ezimbini zotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle ukuze kuthengwe izinto ezikrwada, kodwa kule veki inkampani iyeke okwethutyana ukusebenza kotshintshiselwano, kuba bexhalabile ngekamva. I-Fed iya kukhokelela ekwehleni kwezinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB kunye neendleko zotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle, ingathanda ukugcina utshintshiselwano lwangaphandle kwikota yesine, ukunciphisa ukulahleka okunokwenzeka kotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle.
Ngokombono womlawuli ongentla wesebe lezoshishino likarhulumente leebhanki ezidibeneyo, oku kubonisa ukuba amashishini amaninzi anezigwebo ezivuthiweyo ngakumbi malunga norhwebo lwemali yangaphandle kunye nolindelo lwexabiso lokutshintshiselana, kwaye amalungiselelo emali eemali zasekhaya nezangaphandle nawo adla ngokuba nengqiqo, kwaye awasenzi ulindelo oluqinileyo lokunyuka kwexabiso kwicala elinye kunye nokwehla kwexabiso ngenxa yokunciphisa ibhalansi yeFederal Reserve kunye nezinye iziganeko.
Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuba amaziko otyalo-mali aphesheya ayandisa ngokuthe cwaka imisebenzi yokukhusela umngcipheko wezinga lokutshintshiselana kwemali.
Ibhanki yaseHong Kong ithe uninzi lwabatyali-mali baphesheya bathenga iibhondi ze-RMB ngelixa bebheja kwipotifoliyo yemali eguquguqukayo yokukhusela umngcipheko wokuhla kwemali, utshilo umrhwebi wemali yangaphandle.
"Enyanisweni, oku kukwayindlela engabhalwanga yeSebe leNtengiso yezeMali zaNgaphandle." Ukhankanye ukuba ukhuseleko lwemali kwiimali zaphesheya luya kuba sezantsi xa imali izinza okanye ithanda ukunyuka, ngelixa ziya kuphuma kakhulu.
"Nje ukuba izinga lokutshintshiselana kwe-RMB lithambekele ekuzinzeni okanye libuyele kwindlela yalo yoxabiso, uninzi lwamaziko otyalo-mali aphesheya kwezilwandle aya kunciphisa imisebenzi yawo yokukhusela umngcipheko wemali. Okwangoku, amaziko otyalo-mali aphesheya kwezilwandle asakholelwa ukuba ukunciphisa ibhalansi ye-Fed kulo nyaka kusenokungabi yingcinezelo enkulu yokwehla kwizinga lokutshintshiselana kwe-RMB. Emva kwayo yonke loo nto, ukukhula okuqhubekayo kweziseko zoqoqosho zaseTshayina kunye nentsalela ephezulu yentlawulo zibonelela ngenkxaso enamandla yokuguquguquka kwexabiso lokutshintshiselana kwe-RMB kwizinga lokutshintshiselana elilinganayo." Ummeli oyintloko we-arhente enkulu yolawulo lweeasethi zaseYurophu uvumile.
Ukususela ngentsimbi ye-20:00 ngomhla wama-24 ku-Agasti, izinga lokutshintshiselana nge-RMB kwimarike yasekhaya (i-CNY) linyuke laya kwi-6.4773, laza lafumana ngempumelelo uphawu lwe-6.5 integer, nto leyo egxininisa "ukuqina" kwezinga lokutshintshiselana nge-RMB.
Imisebenzi emitsha yokukhusela amaxabiso okutshintshiselana kweenkampani ezingenisa kwamanye amazwe
"Emva kokuba i-yuan iwele ngaphantsi kwe-6.5 xa ithelekiswa nedola ngoLwesihlanu, umdla wabo wokukhusela utshintshiselwano lwangaphandle wanda kakhulu." Ibhanki edibeneyo ekhankanyiweyo ixelele intloko yesebe lezoshishino likarhulumente.
Abathumeli-mpahla abaninzi babecebe ukulinda kude kube sekupheleni kuka-Agasti ukuqinisekisa iphakheji yokukhusela utshintshiselwano lwangaphandle kwikota yesine, kodwa njengoko uphawu lokunciphisa itafile ye-Fed lukhokelela ekunyukeni ngokukhawuleza kwedola kulo nyaka, abasakwazi "ukuhlala phantsi".
Kuxelwe ukuba nangona uninzi lwabangenisi bebeka ixabiso lokuphumeza utshintsho lwemali yangaphandle phakathi kwe-6.6 kunye ne-6.7, iindawo zabo zokukhusela utshintshiselwano lwangaphandle zihambelana neemfuno zorhwebo lwangaphandle, ngokungafaniyo nezikhundla zangaphambili zokukhusela utshintshiselwano lwe-RMB ezingaphantsi kakhulu zidlula kakhulu iimfuno zabo zoshishino lwangempela.
"Emva koku, amashishini amaninzi angenisa impahla afunde kwilahleko zangaphambili zokukhusela utshintshiselwano lwangaphandle, —— ecinga ukuba abona umkhwa wezinga lotshintshiselwano kwaye andisa kakhulu ubungakanani bokukhusela ukubheja okuqikelelweyo." Ibhanki edibeneyo ixelele intloko yesebe lezoshishino likarhulumente.
Ufumanise ukuba nangona umngcipheko wesikhundla sekhava ulawulwa ngokufanelekileyo, kodwa amashishini amaninzi angenisa impahla asagxila kuvavanyo lwenzuzo yokugubungela utshintshiselwano lwangaphandle, akukho gubungela utshintshiselwano lwangaphandle kwaye anciphise iindleko zokusebenza zokwenyani zeshishini (kubandakanya ukunciphisa iindleko zokutshintshiselana kwezinto zokungenisa impahla, njl.njl.), okukhokelela ekubeni amanyathelo ayo okugubungela utshintshiselwano lwangaphandle asenotyekelo olukhulu lokuqikelela ukuwa kwexabiso lokutshintshiselana.
Okwangoku, ibhanki yakhe edibeneyo yesitokhwe ikwandisa unxibelelwano nala mashishini angenisa impahla, ibacebisa ukuba bangenise iinketho zepotifoliyo yokuguqulwa komngcipheko wotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle —— logama nje isicatshulwa sezinga lokutshintshiselana le-RMB kwixesha elizayo kwixabiso lokutshintshwa komngcipheko wotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle, amashishini akufuneki ahlawule naziphi na iifizi, kwaye anokuphepha ukunyuka kokuguqulwa komgangatho wotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB okubangelwa ngumngcipheko wokulahleka kwentengiselwano yotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle olukhoyo.
Kuyaqondakala ukuba uninzi lwabangenisi bandisa iidiphozithi zokutshintshiselana ngemali yangaphandle, ukuze bajongane nomngcipheko obangelwe yi-Fed ekunciphiseni ukuhla kwezinga lokutshintshiselana kwemali ye-RMB kulo nyaka.
"Isizathu kukuba iinkampani ezininzi ziye zayiva inzuzo yayo." Umrhwebi weemarike zemali kwibhanki enkulu karhulumente ucacisile. Kwisiqingatha sokuqala salo nyaka, ibhalansi yeedipozithi zokutshintshiselana ngemali zangaphandle zamashishini kunye nezinye iinkampani zemarike inyuke kakhulu nge-US $65.8 yeebhiliyoni xa kuthelekiswa nokuphela kuka-2020, nto leyo eyenza amashishini amaninzi angenisa imali aphumelele ekuphepheni ukwehla kwezinga lokutshintshiselana kwemali le-RMB kwisiqingatha sokuqala salo nyaka, kwaye inciphise ngempumelelo ukulahleka kokuthengwa kwemali yangaphandle.
Amaziko otyalo-mali aphesheya aqalise kwakhona imisebenzi yokukhusela umngcipheko wezinga lokutshintshiselana
Ngenxa yokwehla komngcipheko obangelwe kukuncipha kwebhalansi ye-Fed kulo nyaka, amaziko amaninzi otyalo-mali aphesheya aqalise kwakhona imisebenzi yokukhusela umngcipheko wexabiso lokutshintshiselana.
"Ngexesha lokuguquguquka kwezinga lokutshintshiselana kwemali okuzinzileyo okanye ukuthambekela kokunyuka kwi-RMB, asizange senze imisebenzi yokukhusela umngcipheko wezinga lokutshintshiselana kwemali xa songeza iibhondi ze-RMB ezongezelelweyo." Umphathi omkhulu we-hedge fund ye-Wall Street utyhile ukuba ngoku baceba ukwandisa umngcipheko wezinga lokutshintshiselana kwemali ukuya kwipotifoliyo yeebhondi ze-RMB ezingama-50%.
Isizathu se-hedge fund kukuba i-yuan ingaginya ukusasazeka kwelizwe ukuba i-Fed ingayinciphisa kakhulu.
Idatha ibonisa ukuba ukusukela ngentsimbi ye-20:00 ngoLwesibini, umahluko phakathi kwe-10-year Chinese Treasury yield kunye ne-US Treasury yield) ufikelele kwi-162 basis points, kodwa amaziko amaninzi otyalo-mali aphesheya akhathazekile kukuba ukuba i-Fed yehlisa izinga lokutshintshiselana le-RMB ukuya phakathi kwe-6.55 kunye ne-6.6, le nzala iya "kuginywa" kukwehla kwexabiso lezinga lokutshintshiselana.
Abarhwebi bemali yangaphandle baseHong Kong batyhile ukuba ukusukela ngoLwesihlanu, amaziko amaninzi otyalo-mali aphesheya kwezilwandle kwi-RMB bonds eyongezelelweyo ngaxeshanye athathe umsebenzi wokukhusela umngcipheko wexabiso lokutshintshiselana —— xa kuthelekiswa namashishini angaphandle athanda ukusebenzisa i-swap lock, amaziko otyalo-mali aphesheya akhetha ukubheja kwipotifoliyo ye-RMB exchange rate volatility hedging hedging exchange rate fall risk.
Emva koku kukho inkolelo ebanzi evela kumaziko otyalo-mali aphesheya ukuba ibhalansi yeFed kunyaka ngamnye inokutshintshatshintsha izinga lokutshintshiselana kwe-RMB kwixesha elifutshane, kodwa isenokungabi nampembelelo ingako kuxabiso lwezinga lokutshintshiselana elilinganayo.
"I-RMB yeyona mali yesibini ibalaseleyo kwiimarike ezikhulayo kulo nyaka, ngenxa yokukhula okuqhubekayo kwiziseko zoqoqosho zaseTshayina." Umhlalutyi weqhinga likaMorgan Stanley uMatthew Hornbach ukhuphe ingxelo yamva nje. Ukongeza, ibhalansi ephezulu yokuhlawula intsalela yaseTshayina ikwabeka i-yuan phantsi koxinzelelo oluphantsi kakhulu kunakwamanye amazwe asakhulayo.
UMatthew Hornbach ukholelwa ukuba ukuncitshiswa kwetafile yeFed kushiye i-yuan yehla kakhulu kulo nyaka.
"Enyanisweni, sinyusa umngcipheko we-RMB kufana nomlinganiselo wokuthintela. Nje ukuba izinga lokutshintshiselana kwe-RMB liphinde lizinze okanye lithanda ukuphinda libuye, siya kunciphisa ngokukhawuleza imisebenzi yokukhusela umngcipheko wezinga lokutshintshiselana." Umphathi we-hedge fund omkhulu we-Wall Street uthe. Emva kwayo yonke loo nto, imisebenzi yokukhusela umngcipheko wezinga lokutshintshiselana ibiza isivuno sokwenyani sepotifoliyo yebhondi ye-RMB yonke ngamanqaku ongezelelweyo angama-40-50.0, okwenza ukusebenza kwabo kube buthathaka kunabanye oontanga be-hedge fund kwaye kungabi luncedo ekuqokeleleni imali kwixesha elizayo kunye nokwandiswa kolawulo lweeasethi.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Agasti-27-2021