"Huwandu hwevatengesi vanopinza mari vari kudzivirira njodzi yekudonha kwemari yeYuan kuburikidza nekudzivirira mari yakawedzera zvakanyanya mazuva ano mushure mekunge Fed yaburitsa chiratidzo chekudzikira kwemari neChina chapfuura." Bhangi remubatanidzwa wemasheya rakaudza mukuru webazi rezvemabhizinesi ehurumende. Chinobatanidza tambo yakati sandara, euro connectors uye chiratidzo chetriangle zvinofanira kucherechedzwa.
Kare, vanotenga zvinhu kunze kwenyika ava vaitengesa zvakananga paRMB exchange rate, asi ikozvino vasarudza kutenga foreign exchange —— ne forward swap price ye6.6-6.7. Kana RMB exchange rate yakadzikira pasi pe6.7, vanogona kutenga US dollars pa6.7 uye kuderedza mari inoshandiswa pakuchinjana mari yekunze zvinoenderana nazvo.
Zvinonzwisisika kuti pamusoro pekuwedzera mashandiro ekudzivirira mari yekunze kudzivirira njodzi yekuderera kwemari yekuchinjana kwemari yeRMB, makambani mazhinji anopinza zvinhu kunze kwenyika anotorawo danho nedanho kuwedzera mari yekunze kuti agadzirise njodzi yekuderera kwemari yekuchinjana kwemari yeRMB.
Kambani inogadzira zvinhu mudunhu reJiangsu neJiangsu, mukuru wezvemari, yakabhadhara mari mbiri dzekunze kuti itenge zvinhu zvakagadzirwa, asi vhiki rino kambani iyi yakamisa kushanda kwekuchinjana kwemari kwenguva pfupi, nekuti vanonetseka nezveramangwana. Fed ichaita kuti RMB exchange rate iderere uye mari yekunze irambe iripo mukota yechina, zvichideredza kurasikirwa kwekunze.
Mukuona kwemutungamiriri wedhipatimendi rezvemabhizinesi ehurumende remabhanga emasheya akabatana, izvi zvinoratidza kuti makambani akawanda ari kuwedzera kufunga nezvekutengeserana kwemari yekunze uye tarisiro yemitengo yekuchinjana mari, uye kurongeka kwemari yemari yemuno neyekunze kunowanzova nemusoro, uye hakuchisiri kuumba tarisiro yekukwira kwakanyanya uye kudzikira kwemitengo nekuda kwekuderedzwa kwemari yeFederal Reserve nezvimwe zviitiko.
Zvakakosha kuziva kuti masangano akawanda ekudyara mari kunze kwenyika ari kuwedzerawo chinyararire mabasa ekudzivirira njodzi dzekuchinjana mari.
Bhangi reHong Kong rakati vazhinji vanoisa mari kunze kwenyika vari kutenga maRMB bond uku vachibhejera pamari inochinja-chinja kuti vadzivirire njodzi yekudonha kwemari, akadaro mumwe mutengesi wemari yekune dzimwe nyika.
"Kutaura chokwadi, iyi itsika isina kunyorwa yeDhipatimendi reKushambadzira Kwemari Dzekunze." Akataura kuti kudzivirira njodzi dzemari dzekunze kwenyika kuchaderera kana mari yacho yagadzikana kana kuti yawedzera, nepo ichizokwira zvakanyanya.
"Kana mwero wekutsinhana kwemari weRMB wagara wagadzikana kana kudzokera padanho rawo rekukwira, masangano mazhinji ekudyara mari kunze kwenyika achaderedza mashandiro awo ekudzivirira njodzi yemari. Parizvino, masangano makuru ekudyara mari kunze kwenyika achiri kutenda kuti kudzikiswa kwemari yeFed gore rino hakungakonzere kudzikira kwemari yekutsinhana kweRMB. Pamusoro pezvose, kukura kwakasimba kwehupfumi hweChina pamwe nekuwedzera kwemari yekubhadhara zvinopa rutsigiro rwakasimba rwekuchinja-chinja kwemari yeRMB mumutengo wekutsinhana wakaenzana." Mumiriri mukuru wesangano guru rekutarisira midziyo yeEurope akabvuma.
Kubva na20:00 musi wa24 Nyamavhuvhu, mwero wekutsinhana kwemari weRMB mumusika wekunze kwenyika (CNY) wakasvika pa6.4773, uye wakabudirira kuwana chiratidzo che6.5 integer, zvichiratidza "kusimba" kwemwero wekutsinhana kwemari weRMB.
Mabasa matsva ekudzivirira mitengo yekutsinhana kwemari yemakambani anotengesa zvinhu kunze kwenyika
"Mushure mekunge yuan yadzikira pasi pe6.5 kana tichienzanisa nedhora neChishanu, kufarira kwavo kudzivirira mari yekunze kwakawedzera zvakanyanya." Bhangi remasheya rataurwa pamusoro apa rakaudza mukuru wedhipatimendi rebhizinesi rehurumende.
Vatengesi vazhinji vekunze kwenyika vakanga varonga kumirira kusvika pakupera kwaNyamavhuvhu kuti vasimbise hurongwa hwekuchengetedza mari yekunze muchikamu chechina chegore, asi sezvo chiratidzo cheFed chekudzikisa mitero chakawedzera zvakanyanya kutungamira kukwira kwedhora mukati megore, havachakwanisi "kugara pasi".
Zvinonzi kunyange hazvo vazhinji vanotenga zvinhu kunze kwenyika vachiisa mutengo wekutengesa mari yekunze pakati pe6.6 ne6.7, nzvimbo dzavo dzekuchengetedza mari yekunze dzinoenderana nezvinodiwa chaizvo nemari yekunze yebhizinesi, kusiyana nenzvimbo dzekare dzekuchengetedza mari yeRMB dzinopfuura zvakanyanya zvinodiwa chaizvo zvebhizinesi ravo.
"Kutevera izvi, makambani mazhinji ekunze akadzidza kubva mukurasikirwa kwemari yekunze, —— zvinofungidzirwa kuti zvinoona mafambiro emari yekuchinjana uye kuwedzera huwandu hwemari yekudzivirira kubheja kwekufungidzira." Bhangi remubatanidzwa wemasheya rakaudza mukuru wedhipatimendi rebhizinesi rehurumende.
Akaona kuti kunyange hazvo njodzi yenzvimbo yekuvharira ichidzorwa zvinobudirira, asi makambani mazhinji ekunze achiri kutarisa pakuongorora purofiti yekuchinjana mari yekune dzimwe nyika, hapana kufukidza mari yekune dzimwe nyika uye kuderedza mari chaiyo yekushanda kwebhizinesi (kusanganisira kuderedza mari yekutengesera zvinhu zvekupinza, nezvimwewo), zvichiita kuti matanho ayo ekufukidza mari yekune dzimwe nyika achiri nepfungwa yakakura yekudonha kwemari yekubhejera.
Parizvino, bhangi rake remari pamwe chete riri kuwedzera kutaurirana nemakambani aya ekupinza mari, rinokurudzira kuti vaunze sarudzo dzekuchengetedza mari dzekunze — chero bedzi mutengo weRMB wekuchinjana kwemari yekunze uri mumutengo wekuchengetedza mari yekunze, makambani haafanire kubhadhara mari, uye anogona kudzivirira kukwira kwekuchinjana kwemari yeRMB kunokonzerwa nenjodzi iripo yekurasikirwa kwekutengeserana kwemari yekunze.
Zvinonzwisisika kuti vazhinji vanotenga zvinhu kunze kwenyika vari kuwedzera mari yekunze, kuitira kuti vagadzirise njodzi inokonzerwa nekudzikira kweRMB exchange rate gore rino.
"Chikonzero ndechekuti makambani mazhinji akaravira mabhenefiti acho." Mutengesi wemari pabhangi guru rehurumende akataura. Muhafu yekutanga yegore rino, mari iri mumari yekunze yemakambani nemamwe masangano emusika yakawedzera zvakanyanya neUS $65.8 bhiriyoni zvichienzaniswa nekupera kwa2020, zvichiita kuti makambani mazhinji ekunze abudirire kudzivirira kudzikira kweRMB muhafu yekutanga yegore rino, uye kuderedza kurasikirwa kwekutenga mari yekunze.
Masangano ekudyara mari kunze kwenyika atangazve mabasa ekudzivirira njodzi dzemari yekutsinhana kwemari
Zvichienderana nekudzikira kwenjodzi yakakonzerwa nekudzikiswa kwemari yeFed gore rino, masangano mazhinji ekudyara mari kunze kwenyika akatangazve mabasa ekudzivirira njodzi dzemari yekutsinhana kwemari.
"Munguva yekuchinja-chinja kwemari yekutsinhana kwemari kana kuti katsika kekukwira muRMB, hatina kuita mabasa ekudzivirira njodzi yemari yekutsinhana kwemari pakuwedzera mamwe maRMB bonds." Maneja mukuru weWall Street macroeconomic hedge fund akazivisa kuti ikozvino vari kuronga kuwedzera njodzi yemari yekutsinhana kwemari kusvika ku50% RMB bond portfolio.
Chikonzero chehedge fund ndechekuti yuan inogona kumedza huwandu hwenyika kana ikadzikiswa zvakanyanya neFed.
Data rinoratidza kuti kubva na20:00 neChipiri, musiyano uripo pakati pegore regumi reChinese Treasury uye gore reUS Treasury) wakasvika pa162 basis points, asi masangano mazhinji ekudyara mari kunze kwenyika ari kunetseka kuti kana Fed ikaderedza RMB exchange rate kusvika pakati pe6.55 ne6.6, iyi spread yield "ichamedzwa" nekudzikira kwemari exchange rate.
Vatengesi vemari yekune dzimwe nyika mubhangi reHong Kong vakazivisa kuti kubvira neChishanu, masangano mazhinji ekudyara mari kunze kwenyika akatora matanho ekudzivirira njodzi yekutsinhana kwemari —— zvichienzaniswa nemabhizinesi ekunze anotengesa zvinhu kunze kwenyika anoda kushandisa switch lock, masangano ekudyara mari kunze kwenyika anosarudza kubheja paRMB exchange rate volatility hedging options portfolio hedging exchange rate fall risk.
Seri kweizvi pane chitendero chakapararira kubva kumasangano ekudyara mari kunze kwenyika chekuti bhajeti reFed mukati megore rinogona kuchinja mwero wekutsinhana kwemari weRMB munguva pfupi, asi ringasave nemhedzisiro yakakura pakukosha kwemari yekutsinhana kwemari.
"RMB ndiyo mari yechipiri yakanakisa mumusika uri kubuda gore rino, nekuda kwekukura kuri kuramba kuchienderera mberi muhupfumi hweChina." Matthew Hornbach, nyanzvi yezvemazano, akaburitsa mushumo wechangobva kuburitswa. Pamusoro pezvo, huwandu hwakawanda hwemari inobhadharwa muChina hunoisawo yuan pasi pekumanikidzwa kwakaderera zvakanyanya kupfuura mune dzimwe nyika dziri kubuda mumusika.
Matthew Hornbach anotenda kuti kudzikira kwemari yeFed kwakaita kuti yuan iderere zvakanyanya gore rino.
"Kutaura chokwadi, tinowedzera RMB ridging inochengetedza njodzi inenge yakaita senzira yekudzivirira. Kana RMB exchange rate yagadzikana kana kuti yadzoka, tichakurumidza kuderedza mashandiro eridging inochengetedza njodzi." Maneja weWall Street macro-economy hedge fund akataura kuti. Mushure mezvose, mashandiro eridging inochengetedza njodzi anodhura goho chairo reRMB bond portfolio yese ne40-50.0 basis points, zvichiita kuti mashandiro avo asashande zvakanaka kupfuura mamwe ma hedge fund uye hazvibatsire mune ramangwana ravo rekutsvaga mari uye kuwedzera kwekutarisira midziyo.
Nguva yekutumira: Nyamavhuvhu-27-2021