Okwangoku, imithwalo yomoya iphilile emva kwempembelelo yobhubhane. Ngokwengxelo yemarike yenyanga ye-IATA, inani lempahla ethwalwa ngomoya ngoJanuwari laliphantsi nge-19.5% kuphela kunango-2019. (Idatha ayikhankanywanga ngenxa yobhubhane ngo-2020). Isinxibelelanisi, Iibhloko zeTerminal kwaye Isibonisi seebhayisekile kufuneka kuqatshelwe.
Idilesi yoMbuzo: https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-freight-monthly-analysis---january-2021/
Iimarike zemithwalo yomoya zixelwe ukuba zibuyele kwimeko yesiqhelo ukusukela oko zafikelela kwinqanaba eliphantsi ngo-Epreli 2020, ngelixa imisebenzi yabakhweli beenqwelo moya isaqhubeka noxinzelelo.
Idatha ekhutshwe yinkonzo yedatha yeCLIVE yaseLondon, edla ngokuhambelana ne-IATA, ayizange ibonise ukukhula okuhle kude kube nguFebruwari. Nangona uFebruwari wayengaphantsi kweentsuku ezintathu kunoJanuwari, izinga lomthwalo lalisenamandla kakhulu, kunye nomthamo oqhelekileyo weenqwelo-moya ezifakiweyo usondela kwi-70% kwaye ukukhula kwenyanga nganye kwe-7%.
Iindleko zazo zonke iindlela zothutho kunye neengxaki zekhonkco lokubonelela ngempahla zibonisa ngamandla ukuba imakethi yokuthutha ngenqwelo moya iya kuba shushu kwaye ibe nzima kwinxalenye elandelayo yonyaka, ngaphandle kokuma kwentwasahlobo nehlobo ngaphambili.
Amashishini amaninzi ahambisa impahla ukusuka kwindlela yolwandle ukuya emoyeni ngenxa yokwanda kwemfuno, ukuxinana kweechweba, ixesha elide lokulinda kunye nokunqongophala kweekhonteyina.
01 Iimveliso ezininzi "ukusuka elwandle ukuya emoyeni"
Makhe sive ukuba aba bangenisi bathini.
1 Umphathi wezothutho lomthengisi weebhayisekile waseCanyon e-USA uthe:
Uninzi lwezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo zenkampani yethu zithunyelwa ngolwandle, kodwa iibhayisekile ezidumileyo zezomoya, ngenxa yobhubhane, imfuno yethu yeemveliso inyukile. Ukongeza, ukuthunyelwa kwempahla ngenqwelomoya kukhawuleza, kufuneka sihlangabezane neemfuno zabathengi.
Besisoloko sifumana "ukuthunyelwa okuphambili" ngqo kwizibuko lokuthumela ngentlawulo eyongezelelweyo, kodwa ngoku akusafuneki kwaphela, kuba nakwizibuko laseLos Angeles, asisakwazi ukufumana iimpahla.
Ngaphambi kobhubhane, ukuthunyelwa ngakunye elwandle kwathabatha iintsuku ezingama-20-30, kodwa ngoku kuthatha iintsuku ezingama-60-70. Oku kukusetyenziswa kakhulu kuthi, kwaye impembelelo ekusebenzeni kwethu inkulu kakhulu, ngoko andinakulinda, ndinokukhetha kuphela ukuthuthwa ngomoya.
2 Igosa eliyiNtloko loKhulo lweSecco Logistics uBrian Bourke uthe:
Ukuba ufuna ukuthumela ibhafu ukusuka eShanghai ukuya eNew York ngolwandle, ixabiso limalunga ne-$1000, nto leyo eza kuthatha iintsuku ezingama-35-45, nto leyo engabandakanyi ixesha lokulinda lokubhukisha kwangaphambili lokuthuthwa ngolwandle.
Ngokobunzima bemveliso, umthwalo ngenqwelo moya umalunga ne-$2000-3000. Kodwa umthwalo ngenqwelo moya uthatha iintsuku ezi-3-4 kuphela. Ngoko ke iindleko eziphindwe kabini zinokonga iiveki ezi-4-7, nto leyo exabisekileyo kwabanye ababoneleli kunye nabangenisi.
Usekela mongameli we-3SEKO we-air cargo yehlabathi uShawn Richard uthe:
Izixhobo zemidlalo ezinkulu, ezifana neetafile zetenisi yetafile kunye nee-treadmill, zihlala zithuthwa ngolwandle ngenxa yeengxaki zeendleko. Kodwa ngoku, ngenxa yobhubhane wehlabathi, abantu abaninzi kufuneka bahlale emakhaya, nto leyo ekhokelela ekufuneni okukhulu kwezi mveliso, okwangoku ezithuthwa ngomoya.
Usekela mongameli we-4CH Robinson uMatt Castle uthe:
Bendingacingi ukuba ndiza kubona i-vacuum cleaner ithuthwa ngenqwelo moya, kodwa ngoku kwenzekile. Siza kubona iimpahla ezininzi ekufuneka zithuthwe ngokukhawuleza zinyanzelwa ukuba zithuthwe ngomoya endaweni yokuba "zilinde".
Imfuno yomoya isashushu
Akukho phawu lokuba imfuno yothutho lweenqwelo-moya iyancipha.
Ii-odolo zemveliso nezempahla ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwihlabathi liphela zibonise ukukhula okunamandla kangangeenyanga, ngokutsho kwe-PMI. Umlinganiselo wempahla ethengiswayo xa kuthelekiswa nentengiso usephantsi, kwaye uninzi lwabathumeli lujika lusebenzise uthutho lweenqwelo-moya ukuze luphathe uluhlu lweemveliso ezibalulekileyo okanye ezithengiswa ngokukhawuleza.
I-National Retail Federation iqikelela ukuba intengiso yezitolo e-US iya kukhula nge-6.5% ukuya kwi-8.2%, Ukukhula okuphakathi kwiminyaka emihlanu edlulileyo yayiyi-4.5. I-International Monetary Fund ilindele ukuba intengiso yezitolo e-US iya kukhula nge-5.1% ngo-2021, iingcali zezoqoqosho zithi, Imveliso yasekhaya iyonke (i-GDP) iya kukhula nge-4.5 ukuya kwi-5%. Ngokutsho kwe-eMarketer kunye neSebe lezoRhwebo lase-US, ubhubhane uguqule urhwebo lwe-e-commerce lwaba "luloliwe olubalekayo". Njengoko urhwebo lukhula nge-28% kwihlabathi liphela, e-United States lunyuke nge-32.4%.
Ukongeza, iifektri ezininzi zisavuliwe kulo nyaka kuba urhulumente waseTshayina ukhuthaza abasebenzi ukuba babhiyozele uNyaka oMtsha kwangoko. Ngenxa yoko, ukuthunyelwa ngenqwelo moya kwehle ngama-30 ekhulwini kuphela, xa kuthelekiswa nama-60 ekhulwini ngokuqhelekileyo. Umzekelo, umthamo worhwebo oluvela eTshayina ukuya eYurophu unyuke phantse kahlanu ngoFebruwari 2021 xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo.
INorth America ikhokela kwiimarike ezinkulu zeenqwelo moya, apho imfuno yamazwe ngamazwe inyuke nge-8.5% ngoJanuwari, inyuke ukusuka kwi-4.4% ngoDisemba. Uninzi lwemisebenzi lwenziwa kulo lonke iPasifiki okanye kwiindawo ezikuMbindi Mpuma ngaphandle kweAsia. Amandla ehlabathi kulo mmandla ehle nge-8.5%.
Ngoko ke kwimeko yokuba imfuno yokuthutha ngenqwelo moya ishushu kangaka, kuthekani ngokuthutha ngenqwelo moya?
03 Umthwalo usephezulu kakhulu
Emva konyaka omtsha waseTshayina, amaxabiso othutho ngenqwelo moya anyukile kwakhona, ingakumbi e-Asia.
Abahlalutyi bathi amaxabiso ayenganciphisi ukwehla kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka njengoko izinto ezifunekayo kwiinqwelo-moya ezinkulu eziseleyo phakathi kwamazwekazi zisengaphantsi kakhulu kwamanqanaba angaphambi kokuba kubekho ubhubhane kwaye umthamo wokuthunyelwa kweenqwelo-moya ugqithisile.
Ababukeli bemarike bachaza ukuhanjiswa kweenqwelo moya njengokuguquguquka. Ubhubhane utshintshe ubomi babantu kunye neemeko zoqoqosho. Ngoko ke iingcali zezothutho lweenqwelo moya zithi kunzima ukwenza uqikelelo malunga nendlela eya ngayo imarike. Imfuno ephezulu ngokungaqhelekanga yokungeniswa kweenqwelo moya kunye nokunqongophala kweenqwelo moya kwenze ukuba iinqwelo moya zaseAsia zonyuswe ngama-50% kwisiqingatha sokuqala sikaFebruwari.
I-FreightWaves SONAR kunye nezinye izalathisi zibonisa ukuba iinkampani ngoku zibhukisha malunga ne-2.5 yeendleko zothutho lweenqwelo-moya kwiindlela eziphambili xa kuthelekiswa neminyaka yakutshanje.
Ukongeza, ukuthunyelwa kweenqwelo-moya kwehle ngama-30% kuphela kwiveki yokuqala emva konyaka omtsha wenyanga, owaqala nge-12 kaFebruwari, malunga nesiqingatha seminyaka emibini yokuqala yeenqwelo-moya, njengoko iTshayina ingazange iyeke ukusebenza kulo nyaka. Umthwalo wenqwelo-moya uphantsi nge-1% kuphela, xa kuthelekiswa malunga nama-20% ngo-2019 nango-2020.
Ukuqhubeka kwemveliso kuye kwandisa ukuxinana kwiindawo zokungenisa impahla eMelika naseYurophu, kwandisa ubuninzi bezinto ezithunyelwayo kwaye kwaqhubeka nokuxinana kwiindawo zokungenisa impahla ezininzi eMelika naseYurophu. Iinqanawa zokuhambisa impahla elwandle zibhukishwe ngokupheleleyo kwaye akukho zikhongozeli zaneleyo ukuhlangabezana nokwanda kwemfuno evela kwiinkampani ezininzi.
Oku kukhokelele ekubeni amaxabiso angabonakaliyo ukusuka eAsia ukuya kuNxweme oluseNtshona e-United States of America afikelele kwi-$5,000 ngeyunithi elingana neenyawo ezingama-40 (ukwanda kwe-260% kwixesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo), ngelixa amaxabiso angabonakaliyo kumantla Yurophu angaphezulu kwe-$8,000, kwaye abathumeli baphinde bathutha iimpahla emoyeni.
Umlawuli wophuhliso lweshishini le-air freight index uRobert Frey (uRobert Frei) uthe kwi-newsletter ye-hna air index kaFebruwari ukuba kuya kubiza i-$110,000 ukuthumela ikhonteyina eYurophu ngamaxabiso aphakathi okuthutha ngenqwelo moya.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Matshi-18-2021